What does a regional wide Middle East war look like and how does it intact commerce and travel over the next few months

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I remember the Arab spring. I lived in Dubai through it. Didn't impact anything outside the affected countries although it did tell me that the future of a "free" Palestine is same as Syria or similar. Brutal dictatorship, civil wars and lots of violence. We see that with Hamas, elected by the Gazans themselves.

I don't know what will happen between Israel and Gaza. Will it spiral into a regional conflict of multiple invasions? Nope because the dirty secret is that most countries leadership don't like Hamas either. They're not invading Israel. Nor do they want to deal with Palestinian refugees in their countries. Main risk is isolated terrorist attacks here and there and a cold war with Israel. Which is the probable outcome.

Yeah, I would hope most of us do seeing as how it was 12 years ago. However, it doesn’t seem like you have a very good understanding of its significance or the region writ large….but thanks for sharing I guess????

What do you mean? Look at the Arab spring. What happened? Syria was plunged into a devastating civil war as its brutal dictator decided to keep power instead of relinquishing it, although we all also know had al-Assad left, the new regimes would be brutal against their opponents too, while simultaneously fighting civil wars with each other over control. Egypt's brief flirting with democracy utterly failed and military is back in control as population realized it was safer to be ruled by the military. Libya is a mess. Algeria is untrustworthy. Lebanon is barely stable.

If you're annoyed about the observation that a free Palestine wouldn't be a happy and peaceful democracy (har har har), I only need to point your attention to the countries in the Middle East with similar demographics. But it's even worse in that both Hamas and Hezbollah are madmen who treat their own people with brutality if needed. Try being gay in Gaza, eh? WWYD.

I assume the Abrahamic accords are soon to be dead and we're back to the same old same old.

[Anonymous]

When will it be safe again to travel around the middle east with a Jewish last name?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When will it be safe again to travel around the middle east with a Jewish last name?

They are saying this war will last 5-10 years. Maybe after that….

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m the OP. We are Jewish.
Agree on not traveling to ME. Same for turkey.

I think Greece will also be bad. See the pictures on Twitter from yesterday on Samos.

Please elaborate on Samos? Are you referring to Greece/Greeks, or recent immigrants to Greece that could cause problems?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seeing pictures from Beirut w / large #s of people protesting and lining up by the thousands outside the US Embassy. How it’s not Benghazi 2.0.

But I expect that to happen in other places now. United airlines today in their earnings report mentioned the israel crisis will have a material impact on their operations over next few months (through December) if no resolution is reached this month/in October.

What does a regional ME war look like in the modern era?
How do it impact travel /stability to Europe, Africa, or other parts of the stable Middle East, like the United Arab Emirates or Qatar (hubs for connecting flights to Asia/ Africa etc)?

What changes are you making to plans.

For next summer, I was in the process of booking a trip to Greece, and think we are pivoting to costal Italy or the Balearic islands. I’ve heard Greece will have to deal with the refugees via turkey and it will be more of a burden there than other European countries by next summer.

What else?

You are raising important concerns, OP, and I don’t have any answers. Just be aware that not only Greece is struggling with refugees, so is Italy, and many other countries. You don’t necessarily need to steer clear of the entire country. There has been a huge influx of ME (and Northern African) refugees (millions) into Europe over the last decade, and especially since the war in Syria began. The countries in Europe have seen dramatic changes. Only time will tell, where this latest war will lead, but it’s going to affect us all, traveling or not…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I remember the Arab spring. I lived in Dubai through it. Didn't impact anything outside the affected countries although it did tell me that the future of a "free" Palestine is same as Syria or similar. Brutal dictatorship, civil wars and lots of violence. We see that with Hamas, elected by the Gazans themselves.

I don't know what will happen between Israel and Gaza. Will it spiral into a regional conflict of multiple invasions? Nope because the dirty secret is that most countries leadership don't like Hamas either. They're not invading Israel. Nor do they want to deal with Palestinian refugees in their countries. Main risk is isolated terrorist attacks here and there and a cold war with Israel. Which is the probable outcome.

Yeah, I would hope most of us do seeing as how it was 12 years ago. However, it doesn’t seem like you have a very good understanding of its significance or the region writ large….but thanks for sharing I guess????

What do you mean? Look at the Arab spring. What happened? Syria was plunged into a devastating civil war as its brutal dictator decided to keep power instead of relinquishing it, although we all also know had al-Assad left, the new regimes would be brutal against their opponents too, while simultaneously fighting civil wars with each other over control. Egypt's brief flirting with democracy utterly failed and military is back in control as population realized it was safer to be ruled by the military. Libya is a mess. Algeria is untrustworthy. Lebanon is barely stable.

If you're annoyed about the observation that a free Palestine wouldn't be a happy and peaceful democracy (har har har), I only need to point your attention to the countries in the Middle East with similar demographics. But it's even worse in that both Hamas and Hezbollah are madmen who treat their own people with brutality if needed. Try being gay in Gaza, eh? WWYD.

I assume the Abrahamic accords are soon to be dead and we're back to the same old same old.

You're not allowed to acknowledge these truths on DCUM. Remember the mantra: Israel is bad and we see nothing else!