What does a regional wide Middle East war look like and how does it intact commerce and travel over the next few months

[Anonymous]

Seeing pictures from Beirut w / large #s of people protesting and lining up by the thousands outside the US Embassy. How it’s not Benghazi 2.0.

But I expect that to happen in other places now. United airlines today in their earnings report mentioned the israel crisis will have a material impact on their operations over next few months (through December) if no resolution is reached this month/in October.

What does a regional ME war look like in the modern era?
How do it impact travel /stability to Europe, Africa, or other parts of the stable Middle East, like the United Arab Emirates or Qatar (hubs for connecting flights to Asia/ Africa etc)?

What changes are you making to plans.

For next summer, I was in the process of booking a trip to Greece, and think we are pivoting to costal Italy or the Balearic islands. I’ve heard Greece will have to deal with the refugees via turkey and it will be more of a burden there than other European countries by next summer.

What else?

[Anonymous]

There are several very long leaps of logic in this post, but ask yourself how travel has been affected in Europe due to the war in Ukraine? How disrupted was travel through Dubai or Qatar due to the Iraq war or the Syrian civil war?

A bunch of Hizbollah losers protesting in Beirut does not a war make.

Before you start scare-mongering you might actually read up on WHY United noted Israel it it's earnings report:

"And for what it's worth, just to give a little context to the Tel Aviv news here, Bloomberg is saying that United has the most service to that city among the US-based airlines. That actually accounts for about 2% of its annual capacity, which is quite interesting and high, right?"

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/united-airlines-q3-earnings-beat-204241811.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHHphdPBFmuBLRtytQaXKSnlfS6r5dI0iSP8GhD6nHCys4PCDMbHPiMWKnLAy95VVuiam5HkCvHO-Aeh8RWHtW0bLxKoDqQbDimqeses_oUlWzmIZeTAGXiFiuWa-0xfE3uXP0kG9nqyydvgIJKHJiK8qfFdzXSptMRAXO74_TNY

So yeah, United may not earn as much money if it can't fly to Tel Aviv.

[Anonymous]

Ain't no way this is going regional. The US would definitely step in before that point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ain't no way this is going regional. The US would definitely step in before that point.

No. There is no support for that.

[Anonymous]

Turkey has told Israeli citizens to leave the country, I expect other Muslim nations have or will do the same though maybe not as publicly. It’s going to be bad. If you’re Jewish or have a Jewish last name be very careful and avoid traveling anywhere in the middle east for the foreseeable future.

[Anonymous]

I’m the OP. We are Jewish.
Agree on not traveling to ME. Same for turkey.

I think Greece will also be bad. See the pictures on Twitter from yesterday on Samos.

[Anonymous]

Good thing we are discussing this since we've never experienced war in the middle east...

[Anonymous]

Netanyahu told Biden this will last years.
I’d reassess in a few weeks and then change/make travel plans.

[Anonymous]

New worldwide travel alert from state dept

[Anonymous]

Bad, very bad

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Bad, very bad

is there a separate post for this somewhere else?
Is the reason there is a worldwide travel ban because the expectation is that we are going to bomb Lebanon tonight and that’s why the president speaking to us and that this is going to accelerate very quickly into a massive war?

And if you have an American passport and you were in Europe or the Middle East or parts of north, or even South Africa, you may not be safe?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bad, very bad

is there a separate post for this somewhere else?
Is the reason there is a worldwide travel ban because the expectation is that we are going to bomb Lebanon tonight and that’s why the president speaking to us and that this is going to accelerate very quickly into a massive war?

And if you have an American passport and you were in Europe or the Middle East or parts of north, or even South Africa, you may not be safe?

Travel alert….not ban.

[Anonymous]

I remember the Arab spring. I lived in Dubai through it. Didn't impact anything outside the affected countries although it did tell me that the future of a "free" Palestine is same as Syria or similar. Brutal dictatorship, civil wars and lots of violence. We see that with Hamas, elected by the Gazans themselves.

I don't know what will happen between Israel and Gaza. Will it spiral into a regional conflict of multiple invasions? Nope because the dirty secret is that most countries leadership don't like Hamas either. They're not invading Israel. Nor do they want to deal with Palestinian refugees in their countries. Main risk is isolated terrorist attacks here and there and a cold war with Israel. Which is the probable outcome.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I remember the Arab spring. I lived in Dubai through it. Didn't impact anything outside the affected countries although it did tell me that the future of a "free" Palestine is same as Syria or similar. Brutal dictatorship, civil wars and lots of violence. We see that with Hamas, elected by the Gazans themselves.

I don't know what will happen between Israel and Gaza. Will it spiral into a regional conflict of multiple invasions? Nope because the dirty secret is that most countries leadership don't like Hamas either. They're not invading Israel. Nor do they want to deal with Palestinian refugees in their countries. Main risk is isolated terrorist attacks here and there and a cold war with Israel. Which is the probable outcome.

Good to know. Thx for this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I remember the Arab spring. I lived in Dubai through it. Didn't impact anything outside the affected countries although it did tell me that the future of a "free" Palestine is same as Syria or similar. Brutal dictatorship, civil wars and lots of violence. We see that with Hamas, elected by the Gazans themselves.

I don't know what will happen between Israel and Gaza. Will it spiral into a regional conflict of multiple invasions? Nope because the dirty secret is that most countries leadership don't like Hamas either. They're not invading Israel. Nor do they want to deal with Palestinian refugees in their countries. Main risk is isolated terrorist attacks here and there and a cold war with Israel. Which is the probable outcome.

Yeah, I would hope most of us do seeing as how it was 12 years ago. However, it doesn’t seem like you have a very good understanding of its significance or the region writ large….but thanks for sharing I guess????