Reply to What does a regional wide Middle East war look like and how does it intact commerce and travel over the next few months

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][b]I remember the Arab spring[/b]. I lived in Dubai through it. Didn't impact anything outside the affected countries although it did tell me that the future of a "free" Palestine is same as Syria or similar. Brutal dictatorship, civil wars and lots of violence. We see that with Hamas, elected by the Gazans themselves.

I don't know what will happen between Israel and Gaza. Will it spiral into a regional conflict of multiple invasions? Nope because the dirty secret is that most countries leadership don't like Hamas either. They're not invading Israel. Nor do they want to deal with Palestinian refugees in their countries. Main risk is isolated terrorist attacks here and there and a cold war with Israel. Which is the probable outcome. [/quote]

Yeah, I would hope most of us do seeing as how it was 12 years ago. However, it doesn’t seem like you have a very good understanding of its significance or the region writ large….but thanks for sharing I guess????[/quote]

What do you mean? Look at the Arab spring. What happened? Syria was plunged into a devastating civil war as its brutal dictator decided to keep power instead of relinquishing it, although we all also know had al-Assad left, the new regimes would be brutal against their opponents too, while simultaneously fighting civil wars with each other over control. Egypt's brief flirting with democracy utterly failed and military is back in control as population realized it was safer to be ruled by the military. Libya is a mess. Algeria is untrustworthy. Lebanon is barely stable.

If you're annoyed about the observation that a free Palestine wouldn't be a happy and peaceful democracy (har har har), I only need to point your attention to the countries in the Middle East with similar demographics. But it's even worse in that both Hamas and Hezbollah are madmen who treat their own people with brutality if needed. Try being gay in Gaza, eh? WWYD.

I assume the Abrahamic accords are soon to be dead and we're back to the same old same old. [/quote]

You're not allowed to acknowledge these truths on DCUM. Remember the mantra: Israel is bad and we see nothing else! [/quote]

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