August waitlist data is posted

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SWW HS also barely budged. Im shocked they arent at 20

This is intentional. All the schools want to avoid having to use the wait list a lot. It makes planning easier for schools and parents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sorry, I mean, to be clear, some schools have made tons of offers or cleared their whole lists. But not ITS, Latin, or DCI. Seaton and Langley PK3 haven't made many offers, unlike before the pandemic.

For DCI, no offers off waitlist at all for Spanish, 4 for French, and a little over 20 for Chinese. That is crazy low with few spots of hundreds on the total waitlist. It’s just going to get worst and there is going to be no chance on waitlist if you are not in a feeder.

Wow! I know someone who is very low on waitlist because has sibling enrolled in 10th (sibling is also from non-feeder trying for 6th)... seems odd that they still don’t have an offer!

Why is that odd? Priority is for feeder kids. That was the whole reason the school was created. This shows that all the feeder kids are tracking to DCI and absolutely no wait list spots for non feeder.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SWW HS also barely budged. Im shocked they arent at 20

This is intentional. All the schools want to avoid having to use the wait list a lot. It makes planning easier for schools and parents.

+1

Walls overadmitted by about 40 kids for 9th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Numbers look much lower than I expected at a bunch of charters (see DC Bilingual and LAMB for examples). Maybe things are returning to pre-pandemic numbers?

I think I don't understand what this PP is saying. I looked at these schools, and I don't get what is lower, but maybe just didn't look at enough data. For example, the WL at LAMB for PK3 for this year and the last three years is 400 (this year), 486 (22-23), 369 (21-22), and 405 (20-21). There is certainly fluctuation there, but I don't see a clear trend line. Is there some other data you're focusing on?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Numbers look much lower than I expected at a bunch of charters (see DC Bilingual and LAMB for examples). Maybe things are returning to pre-pandemic numbers?

I think I don't understand what this PP is saying. I looked at these schools, and I don't get what is lower, but maybe just didn't look at enough data. For example, the WL at LAMB for PK3 for this year and the last three years is 400 (this year), 486 (22-23), 369 (21-22), and 405 (20-21). There is certainly fluctuation there, but I don't see a clear trend line. Is there some other data you're focusing on?

I should have clarified: Numbers of seats offered look lower, not overall waitlist length.
For LAMB PK3:
2022 Total Waitlist Offers by August: Kingsbury made 16 offers, LAMB SD made 14 offers
2023 Total Waitlist Offers by Augusts: LAMB made 2

For DCB PK3:
2022 by August: 14
2023 by August: 5

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Numbers look much lower than I expected at a bunch of charters (see DC Bilingual and LAMB for examples). Maybe things are returning to pre-pandemic numbers?

I think I don't understand what this PP is saying. I looked at these schools, and I don't get what is lower, but maybe just didn't look at enough data. For example, the WL at LAMB for PK3 for this year and the last three years is 400 (this year), 486 (22-23), 369 (21-22), and 405 (20-21). There is certainly fluctuation there, but I don't see a clear trend line. Is there some other data you're focusing on?

I should have clarified: Numbers of seats offered look lower, not overall waitlist length.
For LAMB PK3:
2022 Total Waitlist Offers by August: Kingsbury made 16 offers, LAMB SD made 14 offers
2023 Total Waitlist Offers by Augusts: LAMB made 2

For DCB PK3:
2022 by August: 14
2023 by August: 5

That makes sense - thanks for the clarification!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[mastodon]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SWW HS also barely budged. Im shocked they arent at 20

Why shocked? Families EotP are increasingly desperate for a decent HS.

It’s a big change from the past three years, not so much from years before that. (They’ve made 206 offers so far this year, comparable to 210 by August in 2019, 200 in 2017, 188 in 2016.)

What’s different?
- the return to in-person interviews
- increased recruiting, in the form of in-person tours
- more match day seats, which means kids are less likely to become attached to the idea of attending a school that they didn’t have to list in the lottery
- GDS took an unusually low number of 9th graders this year
- and yes, there’s a growing number of qualified middle school students in DC without boundary/feeder rights to Jackson-Reed

May I also suggest as a possibility:
- The watering down of admissions standards resulted in a more socioeconomically diverse admitted student class. As a consequence the admitted population is less likely to opt for private schools, thereby vacating a seat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Observations:

Holy cow TR is a sh*t show. They've all but cleared their lists at TRY for ever grade. Even for ECE!

BASIS has gone less deep into their WL than in their published history

Latin OG remains as hard a nut to crack as ever. The limited or nonexistent slots in 6,7,8 speaks very well for retention

TRY is *really* going to feel the financial impact of their decline this year.

It is the possible beginnings of a death spiral. The ECE seats were increased because they don't have enough 5th graders for two full classes. The plan was to backfill with ECE so they could refill for years to come and reset. With ECE numbers falling and fewer than max across all grades the revenue side of the house is going to be impacted for years to come. Of course, a competent Board of Directors would course correct and realize they have a problem. Sadly the TR Board is not competent (see, the last 6 years) and continues to stick their heads in the sand. I hope the GC of the very large arts center who chairs the board so she can burnish her CV feels shame at having overseen the failing of a once great institution. Sadly, she and her Board cohort appear incapable of shame.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[mastodon]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SWW HS also barely budged. Im shocked they arent at 20

Why shocked? Families EotP are increasingly desperate for a decent HS.

It’s a big change from the past three years, not so much from years before that. (They’ve made 206 offers so far this year, comparable to 210 by August in 2019, 200 in 2017, 188 in 2016.)

What’s different?
- the return to in-person interviews
- increased recruiting, in the form of in-person tours
- more match day seats, which means kids are less likely to become attached to the idea of attending a school that they didn’t have to list in the lottery
- GDS took an unusually low number of 9th graders this year
- and yes, there’s a growing number of qualified middle school students in DC without boundary/feeder rights to Jackson-Reed

May I also suggest as a possibility:
- The watering down of admissions standards resulted in a more socioeconomically diverse admitted student class. As a consequence the admitted population is less likely to opt for private schools, thereby vacating a seat.

That doesn’t explain why this year (2023) is different from the last two GPA years (2021 and 2022) and similar to older test-based years (2019, 2017). I’m no fan of the new system but your hypothesis doesn’t seem to fit the data.

[Anonymous]

Middle school is the most competitive seat in the city. It’s getting harder and harder to crack. Look at trends with DCI, Latin, Basis.

Heck, even look at Latin cooper which is depressing as hell in that jail like building and area. Families are desperate.

And it’s going to get more and more competitive every single year as more families come up the chain.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sorry, I mean, to be clear, some schools have made tons of offers or cleared their whole lists. But not ITS, Latin, or DCI. Seaton and Langley PK3 haven't made many offers, unlike before the pandemic.

For DCI, no offers off waitlist at all for Spanish, 4 for French, and a little over 20 for Chinese. That is crazy low with few spots of hundreds on the total waitlist. It’s just going to get worst and there is going to be no chance on waitlist if you are not in a feeder.

Wow! I know someone who is very low on waitlist because has sibling enrolled in 10th (sibling is also from non-feeder trying for 6th)... seems odd that they still don’t have an offer!

Why is that odd? Priority is for feeder kids. That was the whole reason the school was created. This shows that all the feeder kids are tracking to DCI and absolutely no wait list spots for non feeder.

I guess I find it odd because I assumed at least sibling preference would get you in if you are from a non feeder school. Some of the feeder schools didn’t fill all of their lottery spots (I’m looking at Spanish track). Also, it’s hard to believe EVERYONE that got a spot is staying (many people move, go private, etc). We’ll see what happens in September, but my guess is that it will move, but probably not as much as in previous years.

[Anonymous]

Takoma seems to have offered more spots for PK3 off waitlist than usual. Anyone have any insight on what is happening there? Maybe more spots after losing 6-8 grade?

I looked at that school and others as we are in Ward 4. Next year we will lottery (PK3) for the first time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Takoma seems to have offered more spots for PK3 off waitlist than usual. Anyone have any insight on what is happening there? Maybe more spots after losing 6-8 grade?

I looked at that school and others as we are in Ward 4. Next year we will lottery (PK3) for the first time.

Well yes, freeing up space for elementary was one of the reasons they moved the big kids to the middle school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Middle school is the most competitive seat in the city. It’s getting harder and harder to crack. Look at trends with DCI, Latin, Basis.

Heck, even look at Latin cooper which is depressing as hell in that jail like building and area. Families are desperate.

And it’s going to get more and more competitive every single year as more families come up the chain.

That's a dumb take from someone with an ax to grind. They now have a permanent location that they are building out. But you knew that.

[Anonymous]

Latin Cooper looks all right on the inside. Could use some shrubbery outside and a colorful paint job. There’s a bike trail and restaurants nearby. Housing isn’t cheap in area. Other schools in area. Right off Franklin Street. No need to bash it.