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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]For me, the key question is what exactly your chances are at Purple for 2nd grade. You say chances are "better" - what does that amount to numerically? You can look at the Tableau dashboards and see. If "better" is still like a 50-60% chance (or lower) I'd probably switch to Blue, and if Blue isn't manageable, be much more strategic about my lottery choices next year (there are solid safeties for 2nd grade that are well regarded, it's an easy year to switch). If, essentially, Blue IS one of those solid safeties and you're just picky, then yes, definitely switch to Blue. It may be the best you'll get and you need to make peace with that.

If your chances for Purple for 2nd grade is 80%+ or better for 2nd grade, I'd stick with Red and assume you switch next year.

(PS, I totally see why you aren't saying the names of the schools. I actually think for getting advice on your actual question from your perspective and priorities, which are what matters, the hypothetical is better - if you name the schools, it'll just devolve into boosters/haters of those particular schools). [/quote]

I also think its relevant how much farther away Blue is from you as compared to Red.  If you've only ever gone to your IB, and have never had to think about a commute, make sure you factor that in.  Assuming Blue is a noticeably different commute for you than Red, that's a solid point in Red's favor for one more year.[/quote]

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