Rather than call me silly, tell me where I am wrong. I have been through this with my kids for a few cycles now. That is my experience. |
This is 100% correct. And in the end, no one has a crystal ball. You just have to take your best shot at a group of schools that you would be happy to attend. |
Your kid has barely finished half of their junior year. There is plenty of time to worry about this. The college process does not need to be lengthened any further. If you don’t have the answers you want after your initial meetings with your college counselor then I’d suggest asking them. |
OP. Thanks PPs. very useful information/feedback. To this specific post, let me say that confusion regarding one's DC's prospects arises for a few reasons (in combination): 1. Communication from school tends to be much more cautious/opaque than might be imagined. 2. The apparent randomness of outcomes is such that guidance counsellors cannot predict the upside, in particular, with confidence. 3. Schools almost never talk about relative standing except in the vaguest of terms. 4. There are clearly factors other than GPA/SAT that matter for outcomes and it is very hard to infer much by looking at outcomes for older students who have graduated. All this is to say that I agree with the surprise/frustration expressed by the post. It is quite hard to raise any of these/related issues with the school. Not sure how much this is a Big 3 problem as I don't know how this works at other schools in the area/elsewhere. |
Part of the confusion is that COVID has changed thing in just a couple of years. The mitigation of standardized test scores, lessoning of AP's and grade inflation because of distance learning (not for Big3 but for other schools) has made the seas of "qualified" applicants that much larger. In the 1980's, schools today that are like 12-18% admissions rates, were in the 45-55% admission rate. So as there are more applicants with fewer distinctions, it is much harder for a college guidance counselor to really say much beyond what is a reach+ what is a reach, what is a target and what is a safety. And even then, with the sands shifting, they don't really know. In terms of "standing" - they are focused on your kid. They are not going to tell you that your kid is 10th or 80th in the class. The package your kid presents to a college will vary from every other kid, so that is what you need to be focused on. Other kids may have an instrument or a sport that is desired by that college. Your kid may have an outside job that shows something that other kids don't have. One of your parent peers may be a 7 figure donor to a school and you don't know about it. Really, just focus on your kid, help them put their best foot forward and the rest is noise. |
OP. Thanks PPs. very useful information/feedback. To this specific post, let me say that confusion regarding one's DC's prospects arises for a few reasons (in combination): 1. Communication from school tends to be much more cautious/opaque than might be imagined. 2. The apparent randomness of outcomes is such that guidance counsellors cannot predict the upside, in particular, with confidence. 3. Schools almost never talk about relative standing except in the vaguest of terms. 4. There are clearly factors other than GPA/SAT that matter for outcomes and it is very hard to infer much by looking at outcomes for older students who have graduated. All this is to say that I agree with the surprise/frustration expressed by the post. It is quite hard to raise any of these/related issues with the school. Not sure how much this is a Big 3 problem as I don't know how this works at other schools in the area/elsewhere. |
Agreed! |
True. Unfortunately, even with this said, every parent still would find it useful to have some rough sense of where their DC stands. I realize that even a approximate sense may not always be possible to get.. |
I don’t think wanting to put a grades in context is crazy parent behavior. I don’t want to steer my kid toward a goal he has no chance of reaching; and I don’t want to steer them away from a goal because I mistakenly thought a 3.8 gpa (or whatever) was too low. |
My kid is a recent Big 3 grad, and a 3.7 GPA put them at roughly the 75% percentile of the class. (Best estimate.) With a 35 ACT and similar rigor, they were competitive for T20 colleges and T10 SLACs, but not Ivies. With only one exception I can think of, every kid who got into an Ivy from that class was an academic rock star (top 4-5), recruited athlete, URM or have parents wealthy enough to endow a building or the like. |
It doesn't matter where they stand. They find schools they like and apply to them. Just be sure to have a range of schools they are happy with. You are overthinking this if you think what other kids GPA or test scores are. |
look at the common data sets of schools your kid is interested in, and see the GPA and standardized test scores at the 25% and 75% percentaile and that will tell you what you need to know. |
The whole point of this thread is that the gpa at these schools isn’t comparable to the larger data set. |
Not true. The colleges will evaluate them on their own merits, but it give a sense of the facts. You cannot just assume that if you kid is a 3.5 at STA that they would be a 4.3 at MCPS. |
But I also know plenty of kids with identical stats at probably the same coed big 3 who did not get into their ED1 or EA choices so far. I’m sure they will be fine in the RD round, but just to say it’s a crapshoot and you just don’t know what colleges are looking for. |