Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

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05/28/2023 19:07

Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

quote

Anonymous

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia is no risk to NATO. This is proven.

Stop the war and save lives.

First, Russia started the war. Only Russia can end it. All they have to do is pull out of Ukraine. However, knowing how stupid the Russian Government is, I'm sure they will just continue the war for as long as they can send their youth to the front lines, or until there is another Russian Revolution to overthrow them.

Second, even if the US said, "okay, stop" do you really think the Ukrainians would listen to us or take us seriously? They see our Republican's in Congress and figure they've all sold out to the Russians anyway. Plus, nothing will stop Europe from supporting the Ukrainians.

However, take heart that I believe the Russians will run out of Main Battle Tanks (MBT's) sooner versus later. Once that happens, the Russian infantry will have difficulty stopping the Western MBT's that Ukraine received this year. The Russians will need to commit their remaining firepower to hunt them down, offering a lot of targets for the Ukrainians to shoot at, and hasten the war's end.

Why do I believe the Russian MBT's are dwindling?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc

This video a good analysis from commercial satellite imagery of the remaining number of tanks within the Russian inventory that are not on the front lines that might be servicable.

22nd 575
103rd 380
111th 640
227/769th 630
3764th 450
1295th 90
1311th 400
1295th 90
1311th 400
2544th 420
Other 326
TOTAL 3911

The maintenance notes came from https://www.historynet.com/

If you count them all, the author estimated at current rate of loss, that's 2 years 3 months worth of tanks. The author did note tanks parked out in the open without environmental hookups (esp. in Siberia) are probably frozen solid.

In January 1990, Russia had approximately 18,840 tanks. In 2012, Russia began to reduce obsolete tanks down to approximately 2,000 for combat, 2,000 for training, and 6,000 in storage.

According to https://uawar.net/stats, 3637 Russian tanks were destroyed in Ukraine.

Let's say that every lost to date came out of the combat and training category. That would only leave 363 tanks to both attack Ukraine as well as defend Russia around the world. A bit farfetched, but using it for illustrative purposes.

According to the video, if only 3,911 are likely servicable, that means that 1,089 are being used for spare parts. That does seem plausible (e.g. that 1/10 or 10% of Russian MBT's are being cannibalized for spare parts).

Of these 3,911 tanks, the author estimated that these are the breakdown numbers of MBT's by tank type.

T-54/55 270
T-62 560 (to 800) "longer track length had a chronic habit of throwing treads off in a tight turn"
T-64 248 "Manufactured in Kharkiv, the T-64 displayed a disturbing difference between an impressive prototype and a production model full of problems, most notoriously a tendency of its auto-loader to “eat” the left arms of inattentive gunners inside the cramped turrets."
T-72 1841 "a simpler but more reliable step back that cost 40% less to produce than the T-64"
T-80 942 "first tank capable of exceeding 70 kilometers per hour, was lightweight and could warm up quickly, even in the dead of winter, it was expensive, consumed fuel at a disturbing rate and was far more vulnerable to dirt and dust than the diesels"
T-90 50

However, I think the author missed a key observation and that many more of these tanks are non-operational than originally believed.

The reason is that the Russians have already put into front-line combat T-64's, T-62's before the remaining T-72's. If the 1,841 T-72's were easy to put back into service, the Russian military probably would have done so before putting T-64's or T-62's into battle. There has to be some issue that prevented the 1,841 T-72's from coming back into service. Remember, the T-72 overall has less technical issues than T-62's or T-64's and is a simpler design.

The way these things go, my guess is the Russians were likely scrounging parts and cannibalizing from the other tanks far more than anyone knew. An anomaly is that even if 1,841 tanks were being used for spare parts, then it should have been possible to strip down tanks even further to get at least some of them back into service. So why haven't half or more of them been put back into service? I think it's because most of these tanks have been sitting in the open, many without tarps or environmental controls, without regular maintenance. If even a single metal component of the tank utilized inferior steel; the engine, tracks or turrets could easily be rusted solid. And that assumes the optics, electronics, gun stabilizers, radio's etc. are still servicable or haven't also been salvaged for spare parts.

This would also explain the 'sudden deaths' of the officials in charge of logistics and finance. It's a way to keep secrets.

Russia logistics is corrupt. Any tanks “sitting” around for a few years like have been stripped of anything valuable and sold on the black market. Russians have long front to defend. The Ukrainians are going to punch through and encircle the Russians.