Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you want to know what the campaigns are seeing in their internal polls, look at their actions rather than their words.

Do you think Harris would have done the Fox News interview (she bombed), beg for a second debate, and start talking about her Glock pistol & building a wall if she were winning? Of course not. She'd be doing the 2020 basement strategy Biden used.

Or you could just believe the RCP aggregate average that shows Trump up in 6 of the 7 swing states....which includes polls from people who hate his guts and missed his support by 6-8 pts last time.

Neither is up in the swing states according to the pollsters. It’s all within the margin of error.

[Anonymous]

Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

Why?

[Anonymous]

R's lead early voting in Arizona by 154k.

In 2020, D's were up 100k going into election day IIRC.

250k vote swing is huge, given the margin was 45k last time.

[Anonymous]

Key democratic constituencies are not showing up to vote. This is happening in NC and PA.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/30/black-turnout-is-lagging-in-north-carolina-a-warning-sign-for-harris-00186387

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/kamala-harris-campaign-voter-turnout-philadelphia-20241028.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

I would have said that a few days ago. But there is Harris momentum now in the betting markets. Trump still ahead but declining.

This will be very close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

I would have said that a few days ago. But there is Harris momentum now in the betting markets. Trump still ahead but declining.

This will be very close.

On what planet? lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

I would have said that a few days ago. But there is Harris momentum now in the betting markets. Trump still ahead but declining.

This will be very close.

It’s because Harris bets are cheaper than Trump.

[Anonymous]

Trump.

Common sense will win out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

I would have said that a few days ago. But there is Harris momentum now in the betting markets. Trump still ahead but declining.

This will be very close.

It’s because Harris bets are cheaper than Trump.

It’s because people realize it’s easier for billionaires to screw with the betting markets than reality so betting against them is actually a good way to make money

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

I would have said that a few days ago. But there is Harris momentum now in the betting markets. Trump still ahead but declining.

This will be very close.

On what planet? lol

Trump is down 3.6 percent on Election Betting Odds, a significant one day decline. Right now he is at 58.4 percent.

[Anonymous]

There's reality then there is the MAGA delulu. Harris will win this easily, and I can even see a map in which she landslides.

it's going to be hard for the red brigade next week.

[Anonymous]

Sadly I think it will be Trump. But at this point I just want it over. I hate that the election cycle is basically three and a half years.

[Anonymous]

There seems to be a lot less organic energy around Trump's campaign as compared to Harris's.

She's been averaging more than double the turnout at her events compared to Trump -

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-s-wisconsin-crowd-size-compared-to-kamala-harris/ar-AA1teL12?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=67d5aee9c72346fdb8c6ddf57fb038db&ei=20

And Trump has NOT had a turnout anywhere near as big as the 75k that showed up to Harris's event on the Ellipse a few days ago.

Harris has a lot more popular interest and energy going for her.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. A month ago, I would've definitely said Harris but not anymore. This isn't even going to be close imo...

I would have said that a few days ago. But there is Harris momentum now in the betting markets. Trump still ahead but declining.

This will be very close.

On what planet? lol

Trump is down 3.6 percent on Election Betting Odds, a significant one day decline. Right now he is at 58.4 percent.

Trump has been dropping on Kalshi and other sites as well. And FiveThirtyEight's prediction model also shows Trump dropping quite a bit over the last few days. Will be fun to see how his whole "garbage" debacle plays out.