College Football--Big Ten Expansion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

UNC may be coveted by the Big Ten presidents but you have to keep in mind that FOX and ESPN are paying the bills for these conferences. FOX pays the bills for the BIG and wants to get into the southeast and wants football. FSU will get an invite before UNC.

ESPN is handcuffed because of their financial problems. They do not want to lose the ACC or the west coast entirely. They also do not want ND in the BIG. ND wants more money and independence. This is why ESPN and ND are trying to pair Cal and Stanford with the ACC, possibly even with SMU and/or even NAVY. ND may even commit to more games in the ACC.

However, it is not going to be enough.

The GOR is not iron clad. It will be messy and expensive. FSU and others may not declare by August 15th but that will only be because they are getting a war chest together and to build legislative support for sovereign immunity legislation, etc.....

The critical date is to do it by 2026 when the football playoffs will be renegotiated and the money gap between the ACC and BIG/SEC grows substantially. It may even be beneficial to stay in the ACC for a couple of more years as it is a much easier path to the playoff.

Basketball does matter but not as much as football. Once football is resolved they will turn their attention to taking basketball out of the hands of the NCAA. Why let the NCAA control and keep all that money?

What is: "sovereign immunity legislation"?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

UNC may be coveted by the Big Ten presidents but you have to keep in mind that FOX and ESPN are paying the bills for these conferences. FOX pays the bills for the BIG and wants to get into the southeast and wants football. FSU will get an invite before UNC.

ESPN is handcuffed because of their financial problems. They do not want to lose the ACC or the west coast entirely. They also do not want ND in the BIG. ND wants more money and independence. This is why ESPN and ND are trying to pair Cal and Stanford with the ACC, possibly even with SMU and/or even NAVY. ND may even commit to more games in the ACC.

However, it is not going to be enough.

The GOR is not iron clad. It will be messy and expensive. FSU and others may not declare by August 15th but that will only be because they are getting a war chest together and to build legislative support for sovereign immunity legislation, etc.....

The critical date is to do it by 2026 when the football playoffs will be renegotiated and the money gap between the ACC and BIG/SEC grows substantially. It may even be beneficial to stay in the ACC for a couple of more years as it is a much easier path to the playoff.

Basketball does matter but not as much as football. Once football is resolved they will turn their attention to taking basketball out of the hands of the NCAA. Why let the NCAA control and keep all that money?

What is: "sovereign immunity legislation"?

Great question.

Sovereign Immunity means that the king does no wrong so that one cannot sue the federal or state government unless the federal or state government says that you can sue it under certain types of claims.

In this instance, FSU may want the state of Florida to protect it from being sued by the ACC if FSU leaves the conference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

UNC may be coveted by the Big Ten presidents but you have to keep in mind that FOX and ESPN are paying the bills for these conferences. FOX pays the bills for the BIG and wants to get into the southeast and wants football. FSU will get an invite before UNC.

ESPN is handcuffed because of their financial problems. They do not want to lose the ACC or the west coast entirely. They also do not want ND in the BIG. ND wants more money and independence. This is why ESPN and ND are trying to pair Cal and Stanford with the ACC, possibly even with SMU and/or even NAVY. ND may even commit to more games in the ACC.

However, it is not going to be enough.

The GOR is not iron clad. It will be messy and expensive. FSU and others may not declare by August 15th but that will only be because they are getting a war chest together and to build legislative support for sovereign immunity legislation, etc.....

The critical date is to do it by 2026 when the football playoffs will be renegotiated and the money gap between the ACC and BIG/SEC grows substantially. It may even be beneficial to stay in the ACC for a couple of more years as it is a much easier path to the playoff.

Basketball does matter but not as much as football. Once football is resolved they will turn their attention to taking basketball out of the hands of the NCAA. Why let the NCAA control and keep all that money?

What is: "sovereign immunity legislation"?

Great question.

Sovereign Immunity means that the king does no wrong so that one cannot sue the federal or state government unless the federal or state government says that you can sue it under certain types of claims.

In this instance, FSU may want the state of Florida to protect it from being sued by the ACC if FSU leaves the conference.

The GOR is incorporated in Delaware and backed by 115 year old SCOTUS case that’s never been challenged.

Low probability is the up side.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

UNC may be coveted by the Big Ten presidents but you have to keep in mind that FOX and ESPN are paying the bills for these conferences. FOX pays the bills for the BIG and wants to get into the southeast and wants football. FSU will get an invite before UNC.

ESPN is handcuffed because of their financial problems. They do not want to lose the ACC or the west coast entirely. They also do not want ND in the BIG. ND wants more money and independence. This is why ESPN and ND are trying to pair Cal and Stanford with the ACC, possibly even with SMU and/or even NAVY. ND may even commit to more games in the ACC.

However, it is not going to be enough.

The GOR is not iron clad. It will be messy and expensive. FSU and others may not declare by August 15th but that will only be because they are getting a war chest together and to build legislative support for sovereign immunity legislation, etc.....

The critical date is to do it by 2026 when the football playoffs will be renegotiated and the money gap between the ACC and BIG/SEC grows substantially. It may even be beneficial to stay in the ACC for a couple of more years as it is a much easier path to the playoff.

Basketball does matter but not as much as football. Once football is resolved they will turn their attention to taking basketball out of the hands of the NCAA. Why let the NCAA control and keep all that money?

What is: "sovereign immunity legislation"?

Great question.

Sovereign Immunity means that the king does no wrong so that one cannot sue the federal or state government unless the federal or state government says that you can sue it under certain types of claims.

In this instance, FSU may want the state of Florida to protect it from being sued by the ACC if FSU leaves the conference.

The GOR is incorporated in Delaware and backed by 115 year old SCOTUS case that’s never been challenged.

Low probability is the up side.

Additionally … what conference wants a partner that violently weasels out of signed contracts made in good faith?

It’s ridiculous. FSU has no place to go until the Acc deal is over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

Too small alumni base and splits it’s market with larger NC state .. a political and market minefield. Recruiting will be based on money offered not region. Stuck until 2036 anyway. I think Unc is fine with being in the ACC and being king of the dip*hits.

But how many football recruits will be offered any NIL money ? Very few. Most Power 5 Conference recruits are 3 star (out of a possible 5 stars) recruits and will only be offered a scholarship. Doubtful that many 4 star recruits will be offered NIL money and even if offered it can be under $10,000 which is not enough to move out of one's region away from family & friends.

Four star recruits absolutely get NIL money. Some teams have collectives that provide NIL packages for the entire team, and larger payouts for specific groups (i.e., the offensive line all get X$$). Texas Tech, for example, guarantees $25k to 100 football players. And Tech isn’t as rich as UT. The current UT collective has committed 10 million per year (which would work out to about $100k per football player). Of course, not every school has as much money & there’s going to be a real shake out — it’s why Nick Saban doesn’t like NIL. Alabama can’t compete with the wealth of Texas and Georgia.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/texas-tech-football-nil-players-matador-club/rj5whjdoeatjcrwjcqb4gd6w

Per Axios:

Football players at UT have earned the most among the university's student-athletes so far since Aug. 1, 2022, disclosing 327 deals to the university administration worth $2,724,007.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

Too small alumni base and splits it’s market with larger NC state .. a political and market minefield. Recruiting will be based on money offered not region. Stuck until 2036 anyway. I think Unc is fine with being in the ACC and being king of the dip*hits.

But how many football recruits will be offered any NIL money ? Very few. Most Power 5 Conference recruits are 3 star (out of a possible 5 stars) recruits and will only be offered a scholarship. Doubtful that many 4 star recruits will be offered NIL money and even if offered it can be under $10,000 which is not enough to move out of one's region away from family & friends.

Four star recruits absolutely get NIL money. Some teams have collectives that provide NIL packages for the entire team, and larger payouts for specific groups (i.e., the offensive line all get X$$). Texas Tech, for example, guarantees $25k to 100 football players. And Tech isn’t as rich as UT. The current UT collective has committed 10 million per year (which would work out to about $100k per football player). Of course, not every school has as much money & there’s going to be a real shake out — it’s why Nick Saban doesn’t like NIL. Alabama can’t compete with the wealth of Texas and Georgia.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/texas-tech-football-nil-players-matador-club/rj5whjdoeatjcrwjcqb4gd6w

Per Axios:

Football players at UT have earned the most among the university's student-athletes so far since Aug. 1, 2022, disclosing 327 deals to the university administration worth $2,724,007.

That averages out to just over $8,330 per deal.

[Anonymous]

What will happen to Stanford's recruits if Stanford cannot find a place in a Power 4 Conference ?

https://si.com/college/cal/news/troy-taylor-recruiting-top-10-class-at-stanford

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

Too small alumni base and splits it’s market with larger NC state .. a political and market minefield. Recruiting will be based on money offered not region. Stuck until 2036 anyway. I think Unc is fine with being in the ACC and being king of the dip*hits.

But how many football recruits will be offered any NIL money ? Very few. Most Power 5 Conference recruits are 3 star (out of a possible 5 stars) recruits and will only be offered a scholarship. Doubtful that many 4 star recruits will be offered NIL money and even if offered it can be under $10,000 which is not enough to move out of one's region away from family & friends.

Four star recruits absolutely get NIL money. Some teams have collectives that provide NIL packages for the entire team, and larger payouts for specific groups (i.e., the offensive line all get X$$). Texas Tech, for example, guarantees $25k to 100 football players. And Tech isn’t as rich as UT. The current UT collective has committed 10 million per year (which would work out to about $100k per football player). Of course, not every school has as much money & there’s going to be a real shake out — it’s why Nick Saban doesn’t like NIL. Alabama can’t compete with the wealth of Texas and Georgia.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/texas-tech-football-nil-players-matador-club/rj5whjdoeatjcrwjcqb4gd6w

Per Axios:

Football players at UT have earned the most among the university's student-athletes so far since Aug. 1, 2022, disclosing 327 deals to the university administration worth $2,724,007.

That averages out to just over $8,330 per deal.

(a) the deals are separate from the payments from the collective, (b) it’s an average of $27k per player and (c) this is only for a 6 month period.

[Anonymous]

I grew up in the Pac 10. What is happening is blasphemy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No conference wants a school in as much financial distress as is Cal-Berkeley.

Both Big Ten & SEC want UNC according to many reports--which could be wrong.

Honest question, why would the BIG or SEC want UNC? The NC TV market share is small and NC State is a larger university with many more alumni in the state of NC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What will happen to Stanford's recruits if Stanford cannot find a place in a Power 4 Conference ?

https://si.com/college/cal/news/troy-taylor-recruiting-top-10-class-at-stanford

Like when a coach is replaced, they will be able to transfer without issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think only FSU is safe. All the other ACC teams may be stuck which they all are anyway until 2036. Uva and Unc have small alumni numbers, poor tv ratings and state political issues with larger schools in the same state. They definitely have less value than Stanford and the San Francisco/ No Cal market. Clemson splits a small state and has low alumni numbers. Maryland was the only school that is a solitary flagship in its state, inside the beltway of a huge media market and has huge alumni numbers. All the other schools besides FSU ( not the only school but an enormous state/population and large alumni numbers ) have issues.

UNC is coveted by the Big Ten Conference as it gets the Big Ten into new recruiting territory, solid athletic department, excellent academics, and same viewership for football as Stanford, but much more popular in basketball.

Only a few insiders really know the Big Ten Conference's target schools in the ACC if the ACC breaks up. Possible ACC target schools include UNC, U Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, & Virginia.

Too small alumni base and splits it’s market with larger NC state .. a political and market minefield. Recruiting will be based on money offered not region. Stuck until 2036 anyway. I think Unc is fine with being in the ACC and being king of the dip*hits.

But how many football recruits will be offered any NIL money ? Very few. Most Power 5 Conference recruits are 3 star (out of a possible 5 stars) recruits and will only be offered a scholarship. Doubtful that many 4 star recruits will be offered NIL money and even if offered it can be under $10,000 which is not enough to move out of one's region away from family & friends.

Four star recruits absolutely get NIL money. Some teams have collectives that provide NIL packages for the entire team, and larger payouts for specific groups (i.e., the offensive line all get X$$). Texas Tech, for example, guarantees $25k to 100 football players. And Tech isn’t as rich as UT. The current UT collective has committed 10 million per year (which would work out to about $100k per football player). Of course, not every school has as much money & there’s going to be a real shake out — it’s why Nick Saban doesn’t like NIL. Alabama can’t compete with the wealth of Texas and Georgia.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/texas-tech-football-nil-players-matador-club/rj5whjdoeatjcrwjcqb4gd6w

Per Axios:

Football players at UT have earned the most among the university's student-athletes so far since Aug. 1, 2022, disclosing 327 deals to the university administration worth $2,724,007.

That averages out to just over $8,330 per deal.

(a) the deals are separate from the payments from the collective, (b) it’s an average of $27k per player and (c) this is only for a 6 month period.

Recruits eyeing the NFL may want to use some NIL money to buy insurance against a career ending injury.

[Anonymous]

Excellent article:

https://sports.yahoo.com/where-do-pac-12s-remaining-4-end-up-after-latest-conference-realignment-shakeup-160519223.html

Notes that: "Stanford has been begging to the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten, where it offered to enter for an incredibly reduced rate."

Suggests to me that the Big Ten is waiting to see if FSU notifies the ACC that it intends to leave the conference by Tuesday's ACC deadline.

Under the current circumstances, Stanford belongs in the Big Ten Conference.

The article also notes that the Mountain West Conference TV contract expires in 2026. Means that if any of the remaining Pac-12 teams join the MWC, that the new contract should be more lucrative.

[Anonymous]

Interesting article, but it contains a contradiction regarding further Big Ten Conference expansion. States that the President of Ohio State University envisions Big Ten Conference expanding in science research and will only take AAU member schools, but opines that Stanford is out. Doesn't make sense to me--especially in light of the strong relationship between Stanford football and Notre Dame football.

https://sports.yahoo.com/next-big-ten-five-bold-040107729.html

I disagree with a couple of the five predictions in this article as I see a future Big Ten Conference with both Stanford & Notre Dame as members--but, maybe that is just wishful thinking.

[Anonymous]

Washington Post article about college football realignment.

https://washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/13/college-football-league-realignment/

The final sentence of the article: "There are now too many irreconcilable differences between the not-for-profit college mission and for-profit football. It's time to get on with the divorce." Why does this final sentence make me think about the tax-free status of billion dollar endowments in an era of soaring college costs ?

The world of higher education has many incongruities.