Housing prices have gone insane

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Although I do agree that Amazon won’t move real estate needle.

Just think 100% WFH is an overly hyped illusion.

On the point about Amazon, didn't it move the needle before it was even finalized? Meaning it's already baked into the prices?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:This is McLean. Even if not zoned for Langley HS, this school pyramid is good enough to justify a premium. 1M seems about right.

Lmao no it doesn’t. Absolutely no public school justifies that price for that house, get real. McLean High is only a 7/10 anyways

It’s regularly rated the #3 or #2 high school in Virginia.

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/virginia/rankings

And of course the prices reflect the location as well as the schools.

Whatever. Nothing will justify living in this $1M shitshack in a 7/10 school district, living a miserable and depressed lifestyle. Private schools are a thing, and anyone able to afford a million dollar house can certainly afford a private education that is significantly better than a 7/10 school district. This oversaturated real estate market is not going to last very long, especially with COVID permanently changing the nature of jobs. It’s so expensive right now because the inventory is low, but eventually these shitshacks will depreciate to what they’re actually worth...shit.

Wow, you're just a miserable b*tch.

I’m not the one becoming a slave to the real estate market, choosing to live in a $1M shitshack for some PUBLIC schools, and especially not for schools that are rated a 7/10 and not even remotely worth it, so no....Nobody with that kind of money in their right mind would buy that house for $1M. I wouldn’t even pay $1M for a house like that if it put me in a W school in MoCo either. I chose to buy an expensive house that actually looks like one, is on the water, and a decent commuting distance from my job. My kids go to a private school that is much better than McLean or any other public school will ever aspire to be, and my neighbors and I laugh at real estate market assk***ers who pay $1M for shitshack for some crummy PUBLIC schools, absolutely pathetic. Those are the people who are truly miserable.

You sound extremely happy with your choices ranting and raving at 1:52AM on a Sunday morning.

Maybe you need to talk to your doctor about switching up your meds.

And you must be a loser if the first thing you do on your Sunday morning is check DCUM searching for validation in your decision to buy a shitshack.

My point isn’t that this neighborhood doesn’t have certain amenities, just that they’re not worth that price tag. My point is that someone making a $1M+ decision doesn’t care about the public schools, they have options for private school. There are plenty of rich people living in school clusters that perform badly (i.e. Annapolis HS), and it’s because there’s no shortage of private schools in the DMV, and they’re way better than the poo-blic schools in McLean anyways. People are willing to commute to work for up to an hour, especially if they only have to go to DC a few times a week (and a lot of jobs are permanently changing to hybrid or even fully virtual because of COVID). It’s dangerous and financially irresponsible for someone to pay $1.5M for a house like that, because there’s a good chance that the new nature of jobs will significantly impact property values in the near future, once the market/inventory evens out again. There’s a reason people in MoCo and DC are moving up to Frederick at high rates. There’s a reason that San Francisco is seeing one of the highest rates of people moving out of the city. It’s because people are only willing to put up with ridiculous real estate prices for so long before they begin to question why living in said area is even worth it in the first place, and after they make the realization that it’s not worth it to live in a shitshack, they being leaving in large numbers. Turns out that if people have the choice, they prefer living near nature and in a nice house/neighborhood rather than living in a shitshack that was built for the middle-class and wasn’t even intended for their income-bracket. Weird huh? Besides, traffic congestion is such a huge problem in and around the beltway that living a bit out doesn’t add a significant amount of time to someone’s commute. You aren’t realizing that people making $1M decisions don’t care about your subjective assessments of how “nice the neighbors are” (lol), as if there’s no other neighborhoods in the DMV with “nice” neighbors. I know of a trailer park within good commuting distance from DC in a 7/10 school district. I’m sure they also think their neighbors are nice. I’ll go tell them they can sell their trailers for $850k now.

The DMV region has some of the most overpriced homes in the country as well. Even before inventory was low, Bethesda was considered the most over-priced city in the country. Houses there are being priced at nearly a quarter of a million dollars above their actual value, and I imagine it’s only gotten worse now. Not everyone is real estate market sheep/slaves, and they’re not willing to pay for houses that are so overpriced to the point that the amount in dollars the house is overpriced exceeds the average value of a home in the country. There will be a San Francisco effect happening in this region very shortly (and I’d argue that it has already started it’s premature phases).

If McLean High is really all that nice, then why is a school that is full of students of such a high income-bracket only a 7/10? That’s really embarrassing and that must mean that the school is actually garbage considering the demographics of that school. I imagine that the minority of disadvantaged kids going there probably do even worse, which is also worrisome. It tells me that that school is so low-quality that even the very privileged kids there aren’t performing at the same level kids of their demographics in other schools do. I wouldn’t send my kids to that garbage school even if I could get the house I have now over there for the same price. If I cared about public schools, I’d be living in Howard County, MD, where I could get a house that’s expensive and actually looks like it, while also being within reasonable commuting distance from work. I could also be in a school cluster that puts McLean to shame. A 30 minute drive to DC from Clarksville or Highland is fine if it means I wouldn’t live in a shitshack. A 50 minute commute to work is becoming increasingly tolerable to many people if it means that they won’t live in a shitshack.

This thread is full of arrogant, gentrification/suburban imperialism implants who are seriously trying to justify exorbitant prices for houses that were intended for a significantly lower income-bracket and are too sheltered to realize that most people would not pay that price tag for a house like that, and the number of people willing to do so is increasingly getting smaller. You all are so miserable and pathetic. You claim that there’s all these amenities and such a healthy lifestyle, yet you live in one of the most clinically depressed regions in the DMV region and country.

You must not live in the DMV. It's expensive. Private schools are $35k, rental house can cost $4-$5 k a month. $1 million for a house with great public schools is a bargain. It's not living large.

Lol. I live in a large and expensive waterfront home in Davidsonville/Riva, in a school district that has the same rating as McLean (South River). My kids go to private, it is absolutely possible. It depends on what people prioritize. People live in places like McLean mostly for the prestige I guess, because it’s important in our culture for people to know you’re rich just by saying the name of the town you live in or the name of the public school your kid attends.

LOL, sounds like some people live in a "large and expensive waterfront home in Davidson/Riva" so they can say they "live in a large and expensive waterfront home in Davidsonville/Riva"?

Proximity to jobs and good schools still matters.

This house in McLean - 5.5 miles to Tysons; 8.7 miles to downtown DC

Davidsonville, MD - 43 miles to Tysons; 26 to downtown DC

McLean HS - #3 in VA, #236 nationally

South River HS - #28 in MD, #1036 nationally.

Some folks live in 5 million dollar houses 2 miles from downtown and less than a mile from each of the Big Three. Y’all are fighting over 17th place.

The point is, the only people who pay $1M to live in a house like that in McLean/Potomac/Bethesda/Chevy Chase are only doing so for prestige. They’re more desperate to make sure people know they’re rich than they are about owning actual luxury homes. That’s why they’re paying exorbitant prices for middle-class homes constructed in the 1970s and trying to justify their lame decision to do so. I did not get a law degree from a top-tier law school just to pay $1M to live in a house that looks significantly worse than the $700k house my parents raised me in, f*ck no lol. Again, there’s similar and even significantly better schools available in the area where one can purchase a million dollar luxury home. River Hill and Centennial schools in Howard County put McLean and Bethesda schools to shame, yet I could also buy an actual mansion in those clusters for the price of this house, and my commute to DC is still pretty. And now, Frederick County is becoming an up and coming place for DC commuters. No public school would ever make that house worth that much, especially not one that is seemingly mediocre when you consider the fact that students at other schools with lower SES are close/on par or sometimes even better. All these crazy expensive places like SF/NYC/etc are seeing drastic numbers of people fleeing, and it’s because of home prices like this. People can only put up with it for so long before it becomes self-destructive. In a few years we will have people on DCUM crying about how their shitshack crashed in value and how they struggle to sell it and are underwater. People are increasingly fed up with the housing market, and people are becoming increasingly okay with commuting longer to work for a better house in a nicer area. There’s so much completion in this area that McLean doesn’t even come close to.

Only know about McLean but many Asians buy the houses not for prestige but to get their kids into Longfellow Middle school with its strong math program and admittance today Thomas Jefferson SS&T. In the last ten years our McLean neighborhood became predominantly Asian and many of the kids got into TJ. If they didn’t, the parents can often get them transferred to Langley HS because it is under enrolled and McLean is over capacity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They dropped the price to $995K and it went under contract in four days.

Oh no, PP with the waterfront house in Davidson, MD will have a serious freak out when she finds out!

Except it’s still not under contract, it just says “contingent,” which is bs half off the time. Realtors list stuff as “contingent” all the time, then take the listing off, just for it to pop back up a few weeks later. Everyone knows that trick. Nobody is buying that $995k.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They dropped the price to $995K and it went under contract in four days.

Oh no, PP with the waterfront house in Davidson, MD will have a serious freak out when she finds out!

Except it’s still not under contract, it just says “contingent,” which is bs half off the time. Realtors list stuff as “contingent” all the time, then take the listing off, just for it to pop back up a few weeks later. Everyone knows that trick. Nobody is buying that $995k.

That's a pretty dumb trick. When I see something go under contract and then pop back on the market, my immediate thoughts are" "okay, what's wrong with this place? What did they find during inspection?" terrible strategy, if that's what this is.

[Anonymous]

I only see one house on the market in 22101 between $900K and $1M right now, so I'm not surprised the listing is under contract. It's very much a seller's market in that price range.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The point is, the only people who pay $1M to live in a house like that in McLean/Potomac/Bethesda/Chevy Chase are only doing so for prestige. They’re more desperate to make sure people know they’re rich than they are about owning actual luxury homes. That’s why they’re paying exorbitant prices for middle-class homes constructed in the 1970s and trying to justify their lame decision to do so.

It's actually the opposite. Some people need to feel like to show off a massive, "luxury" home, to show they're rich, so they keep driving until they find one they can afford. The folks in the 1970s "shitshack" value proximity to the city, culture, and amenities over a large, showy house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The point is, the only people who pay $1M to live in a house like that in McLean/Potomac/Bethesda/Chevy Chase are only doing so for prestige. They’re more desperate to make sure people know they’re rich than they are about owning actual luxury homes. That’s why they’re paying exorbitant prices for middle-class homes constructed in the 1970s and trying to justify their lame decision to do so.

It's actually the opposite. Some people need to feel like to show off a massive, "luxury" home, to show they're rich, so they keep driving until they find one they can afford. The folks in the 1970s "shitshack" value proximity to the city, culture, and amenities over a large, showy house.

Oh yeah, I’m totally sure that people in the DMV are dying to live in McLean because it has “culture” over Annapolis, said nobody ever lmao. There is no culture that comes from sticking a bunch of transient transplants together in an area ONLY because they hate being in a car and value being super close to work. Many of the “outer” areas like Annapolis, Baltimore, and Ellicott City actually have well-established and diverse communities. DC has culture for sure, but DC culture is not McLean, Arlington, or some other gentrified suburb full of recent transplants, and anyone who thinks it is is probably very uncultured themselves.

You do have a point about how people should be willing to make compromises when it means that they’d live in an area with a lot of amenities and a higher quality of life, but not to the extent where they’re paying $1M for a house that would probably be priced under $500k in much else of the region. That means that the value of the home is determined mostly by something subjective (something that could change in a flash, and could in turn, drastically affect property values). WFH jobs are significantly increasing, and even when it comes to jobs in person, they’re meeting a lot less frequently. Commuting from “far out” places every weekday would be a pain for sure, but doing it once or twice a week (or possibly even less)? Absolutely doable and easy. Ellicott City has been named the happiest place in Maryland for multiple consecutive years. Columbia has been ranked as the number 1-8 place to live in the entire country by CNN money magazine several times. There’s a lot that people and families enjoy living “far out” in places that DCUMers have never even been to and look their noses down upon. And honestly, they really shouldn’t be called “far out,” because they’re not at all. I hate to break it to you, but DC is only a small slice of the economy in the DMV. Baltimore is a huge white-collar job hub for academia, science, and technology. Johns Hopkins, University of Maryland, and several other hospitals and medical facilities are up that way. Fort Meade is also a huge hub with federal jobs and NSA jobs. And increasing amount of families moving here have one spouse that works in the DC metro area and another that works in the Baltimore metro area or Fort Meade. There is also train lines that go to both metro areas in many of these suburbs. They are not “further out,” McLean is the suburb that is “further out,” because it is only close to DC and further away from the rest of the economy in the DMV region. The others are centrally located.

Schools are good in McLean, but they’re not worth those price climbs when there’s also other very good schools in other areas. The ones in Arlington are far from being worthy of overpaying half a million for a house.

[Anonymous]

The Big Mouth of the Severn is back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Big Mouth of the Severn is back.

Actually, it’s the South River. Once again, the “cultured” and “educated” snobs can’t even get geography outside of the beltway correctly, but still feel like their opinions about them are correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Big Mouth of the Severn is back.

Actually, it’s the South River. Once again, the “cultured” and “educated” snobs can’t even get geography outside of the beltway correctly, but still feel like their opinions about them are correct.

No one cares where your boat is docked.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Big Mouth of the Severn is back.

Actually, it’s the South River. Once again, the “cultured” and “educated” snobs can’t even get geography outside of the beltway correctly, but still feel like their opinions about them are correct.

No one cares where your boat is docked.

At least I have a boat. You have a dirty and traffic congested suburb that’s close to lots of industrial pollution. Instead of a boat, you have lifelong Xanax and Citalopram prescriptions needed to cure the DCUM “Help, I make $400k, but I feel poor because I can’t keep up with my neighbors making $800k” McLean/Bethesda/Potomac/Chevy Chase syndrome.

[Anonymous]

The poster about Annapolis is not entirely wrong...although he/she comes across a bit rough. However, I'm sure he/she is fed up with people arguing with him/her about their choices.

WFH is real, it's here, now, and it's not gonna go away. We're seeing a seismic shift in the American culture. I'm not saying cities/dense urban areas are gonna die, but their value proposition is diminishing. I suspect a few years from now, these so called urban areas will be a lot more "cheaper" in many different ways than they had been until 2019.

And yes, I think the big house, with a big lot, a bit (or more) further out, is gonna be back in vogue. It has to be. It makes sense. Technology has outpaced the need to be near your job, for a lot of jobs. We'll be seeing the real world effects of that in the next few years.

[Anonymous]

Remember the Amazon HQ2 was split between DC and NY. AOC's political activism caused Amazon to pull out of LIC in NY and move to Manhattan instead. Supply in Manhattan was constrained (and expensive) so they shifted plans from 50/50 to 70/30 for the split between DC/NY. Thanks to Coronavirus and the exodus from NYC, prices have fallen so much that Amazon has flipped that ratio and it will now be 30/70 DC/NY with the execs in NY. It's apparently much easier to recruit execs in NY because the ecosystem is much more robust, especially in their retail and media divisions. This is the latest I've heard, but who knows what will happen eventually.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The poster about Annapolis is not entirely wrong...although he/she comes across a bit rough. However, I'm sure he/she is fed up with people arguing with him/her about their choices.

WFH is real, it's here, now, and it's not gonna go away. We're seeing a seismic shift in the American culture. I'm not saying cities/dense urban areas are gonna die, but their value proposition is diminishing. I suspect a few years from now, these so called urban areas will be a lot more "cheaper" in many different ways than they had been until 2019.

And yes, I think the big house, with a big lot, a bit (or more) further out, is gonna be back in vogue. It has to be. It makes sense. Technology has outpaced the need to be near your job, for a lot of jobs. We'll be seeing the real world effects of that in the next few years.

WFH is not the panacea you think. Companies can’t work with all work remotes just IC work that requires little collaboration or innovation. We have coasted this year off a) prior dynamics established in person and b) working more hours b/c we have nothing better to do.

Jobs like the accountant who just tabulates data, sure they may stay WFH unless there are security breaches and all of a sudden financial data is air gapped at the HQ.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The poster about Annapolis is not entirely wrong...although he/she comes across a bit rough. However, I'm sure he/she is fed up with people arguing with him/her about their choices.

WFH is real, it's here, now, and it's not gonna go away. We're seeing a seismic shift in the American culture. I'm not saying cities/dense urban areas are gonna die, but their value proposition is diminishing. I suspect a few years from now, these so called urban areas will be a lot more "cheaper" in many different ways than they had been until 2019.

And yes, I think the big house, with a big lot, a bit (or more) further out, is gonna be back in vogue. It has to be. It makes sense. Technology has outpaced the need to be near your job, for a lot of jobs. We'll be seeing the real world effects of that in the next few years.

WFH is not the panacea you think. Companies can’t work with all work remotes just IC work that requires little collaboration or innovation. We have coasted this year off a) prior dynamics established in person and b) working more hours b/c we have nothing better to do.

Jobs like the accountant who just tabulates data, sure they may stay WFH unless there are security breaches and all of a sudden financial data is air gapped at the HQ.

But it is. That's exactly what I *think* (completely my opinion).

Collaboration "in person" is over rated. Like I said earlier, technology has far outpaced that. 10 years ago, live, high definition, video conferencing, with all of the associated collaboration tools, was a pipe dream for the masses, it was only available to rarified circles. Today? It is ubiquitous. Tomorrow? It'll get even better, with VR, AR, 5/6g and hardware innovations.

Innovation "in person" again is overrated. Yes, there are a few unique situations where it makes absolute sense, but not so for the vast majority of the jobs. A vast majority of the white collar jobs (law, IT, accounting, even tele-health in the future, customer support, banking, finance etc etc) can absolutely be done remotely, and can be remotely very successfully. This year proved it.

Buying a house is a very long term view, so is commercial real estate/leasing. Take one guess as to why the commercial real estate market is going down the drain in urban cores. Housing in those urban cores is starting to tumble, though not as badly as commercial, just yet. It'll get worse over time.

I AM a buyer in the current market (sold our house a few years ago for a number of reasons and been renting since) and I'm not even considering urban cores. At all. I can easily afford Mclean/Arlington/DC/Potomac/Bethesda, but I'm not even looking in those areas. I'm looking at areas that have basic infrastructure sorted out (high speed internet, gas lines, good electric (110/220v, over 400a availability), preferably underground util lines etc), good lot sizes (2ac and above), good housing stock, even if older.

- I'm not keeping good schools at the top of my list, because as demographics change over the next few years, schools will change with that. Once a neighborhood gets a good number of higher income/wealth people, schools automatically change.
- I'm not keeping the political views of the community on my list either. Read above.

As an e.g. I'm looking at Western Loudoun county, Richmond, Frederick, Anne Arundel county on the local radar.