Is there going to be panic selling?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

How long ago did you leave? My DC grew up in the DMV and is now in college in a city in "flyover country." He spent last summer back living in Capitol Hill and came away deeply unimpressed with the city. The city he is in is booming and a much better place to be young. DC was drab and boring in comparison. Maybe RTO to office will help, but DC is still not the same place it was before COVID.

Not surprised. This happened in most downtowns.

RTO is supposed to take care of it. DC streets are deserted right now outside of a few neighborhoods near colleges, shopping/dining and tourism. But it was also designed with vast swaths of streets with commercial buildings and low rise residential. A flyover city with a central area with highrises young people can afford to live in and a blob of dining/entertainment not catering only to deep wallets older people (cheap eateries and bars, clubs, etc) will certainly feel more vibrant and easier for the youth. DC used to be this.. at least how I remember it in early 2000s, it was vibrant and full of young people, we had fun going to clubs, bars, eating without dropping a price equivalent to a price of a small apartment monthly electric or heating bill on one dinner for 2.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

How long ago did you leave? My DC grew up in the DMV and is now in college in a city in "flyover country." He spent last summer back living in Capitol Hill and came away deeply unimpressed with the city. The city he is in is booming and a much better place to be young. DC was drab and boring in comparison. Maybe RTO to office will help, but DC is still not the same place it was before COVID.

Not surprised. This happened in most downtowns.

RTO is supposed to take care of it. DC streets are deserted right now outside of a few neighborhoods near colleges, shopping/dining and tourism. But it was also designed with vast swaths of streets with commercial buildings and low rise residential. A flyover city with a central area with highrises young people can afford to live in and a blob of dining/entertainment not catering only to deep wallets older people (cheap eateries and bars, clubs, etc) will certainly feel more vibrant and easier for the youth. DC used to be this.. at least how I remember it in early 2000s, it was vibrant and full of young people, we had fun going to clubs, bars, eating without dropping a price equivalent to a price of a small apartment monthly electric or heating bill on one dinner for 2.

When is the last time you actually were in DC? Does Union Market or Capitol Hill or Navy Yard or The Wharf or downtown near Jaleo…I could go on.

Those places are all fairly crowded in addition to Georgetown and Adams Morgan et al which fits your definition above.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Its probably the homes in the $1-$2M range that will be most affected. The buyer pool is going to get squeezed, especially if rates stay where they are. And if sellers need to sell, they might take a 2020 era price (which may still be a tidy profit depending on when they bought).

I could see this. We bought a SFH recently just under $1M with a ~$750K mortgage. Mortgage is about 1x our annual HHI (but we just started making this recently). We could have afforded a lot more and originally were looking in the mid $1Ms but it felt too risky in this current market until we see what happens. Our $750K mortgage is still a little under $6K PITI/month - absolutely insane. Our neighbors are in $1.2-1.3M houses purchased in 2021/2022 at 2.75% paying less than us a month - their houses are supposedly worth $1.6-1.8M now but we'll see if that holds or if they have to drop to 2020 pricing if they want to sell.

[Anonymous]

I was thinking of selling and buying this spring. But decided to stay in my tiny place . Until I see stability and confidence in our Economy . The seller was all confident and actually somehow made me agree to certain things I was not that comfortable but location is great . I had way out I had an inspection and of course can of warms and with ICE thing going on fixing things might cost way more.
So I got out the contract . Now they are offering this and that. But nope not interested.

[Anonymous]

Its more likely there will be a great "hunkering down" in affordable sfhs and for people with lower interest rates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Its more likely there will be a great "hunkering down" in affordable sfhs and for people with lower interest rates.

Hunkering down isn't going to help ramp up inventory. I think it definitely is going to happen for people who have to stay here for one reason or another, but people who cannot find jobs here and pay their affordable mortgages and living expenses will be moving elsewhere. It will all depend on what happens to the overall job market and how many people cannot find work who rely on working income.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You need new friends, OP. They're excessively dumb.

No, there won't be a recession. No, there won't be a stock market crash. No, there won't be a massive selloff of homes in the area. No, there won't be massive inflation (because Trump can't make tariffs stick).

You forget the sheer incompetency of these people. They're so aggressive that they're overshooting the mark every time into illegal or unconstitutional territory. It takes time for lawsuits to be organized and filed, and it takes time for justice to get handed down, but it WILL happen. Just like the Trump 1.0 Muslim Ban was struck down 90 days after it started.

There is and will be collateral damage, of course. People have been fired, and will continue to be fired. But not in the large numbers your friends fear. Some federal departments will be reorganized and consolidated, DEI will disappear. But in case you didn't know, this has happened multiple times in the past: federal departments come and go. We're regressing, that's for sure, but it's not the end of the world - the pendulum swings both ways and in 4 years there will be a reckoning. In 2 years the midterms will show the strength of the resistance.

I envy your optimism.

You're absolutely right that courts will strike down much of what Trump and Musk are doing. The problem is that courts rely on the Executive branch to enforce court orders. The judges will rule against Trump, and Trump will ignore them. Of course we have a system of checks and balances, and the check against a criminal Executive is impeachment by the Legislature...which is completely controlled by the Executive's criminal accomplices, the GOP.

The guardrails have collapsed, the failsafes have been sabotaged. There is absolutely nothing holding Trump and his cronies accountable except common decency and respect for the Constitution, of which Trump has none.

This. Trump. 2.0 is not like Trump OG

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Inventory is starting to increase in areas where I am looking. Kind of surprised that some appealing and fairly priced houses did not go under contract during their first week on the market.

It always does this time of year. That’s not a judgment on the market direction either way.

[Anonymous]

it will only be the bozos who have a 300k HHI with. 5k+ mortgage and then are forced to drop to one income. That demographic will be tanked.

[Anonymous]

Delusional thinking on here that the market will hold up at all. Most federal work will be computer/AI when Musk is done. Decision makes and computers, Nothing more And what is left of agencies will be moved outside of DC. few contractors, partly bc rates will be too low and contract terms to risky. DC is going to be gutted, in totality.

[Anonymous]

What does this have to do with real estate? Move to political forum.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Delusional thinking on here that the market will hold up at all. Most federal work will be computer/AI when Musk is done. Decision makes and computers, Nothing more And what is left of agencies will be moved outside of DC. few contractors, partly bc rates will be too low and contract terms to risky. DC is going to be gutted, in totality.

+1000000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Delusional thinking on here that the market will hold up at all. Most federal work will be computer/AI when Musk is done. Decision makes and computers, Nothing more And what is left of agencies will be moved outside of DC. few contractors, partly bc rates will be too low and contract terms to risky. DC is going to be gutted, in totality.

If this is the case all markets are going to crater except maybe SV and economy will completely collapse. AI cannot replace what most of the federal workforce does and if the federal government thinks it can you can bet private corporations will follow quick suit. It will also completely decimate federal funds many areas rely on to survive.

So anyways God speed everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What does this have to do with real estate? Move to political forum.

Yep. This thread is going to end up locked like the other one at this rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Delusional thinking on here that the market will hold up at all. Most federal work will be computer/AI when Musk is done. Decision makes and computers, Nothing more And what is left of agencies will be moved outside of DC. few contractors, partly bc rates will be too low and contract terms to risky. DC is going to be gutted, in totality.

Regarding this morning’s Washington Post article on the future of the federal workforce, at the undergraduate and grad programs at DC universities, there is compete chaos and uncertainty. Most young grads or students are now pivoting to medicine or law and are no longer looking for government jobs in the treasury department, foreign service, state dept, NIH, etc. The appeal of DC for a stable job serving the country is no more.

The future economic health of the region will be precarious if the federal government and NGO’s no longer operate and create jobs here. But DC could use its architectural beauty to develop a more robust tourism sector. Maybe tax breaks could lure film studios here, like Atlanta. Perhaps a foodie economy could develop like in Austin. If defense jobs and defense contracting are outsourced to technocrats and AI, perhaps a more robust tech economy could develop here to support the infrastructure.