Is there going to be panic selling?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

+1. The real story in this area is the contractors. They're getting laid off in droves and they might not get a decent severance. They were the ones buying those expensive inside-the-beltway SFHs. In my inside-the-beltway neighborhood, the houses around $1 to $1.3 million are getting scooped up by feds, while the more expensive stuff is starting to sit. It all makes sense when you think about the fact that contractors are most at risk by this administration's actions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

I think the problem is people suggesting certain timing. People’s homes are frequently the last thing they unload after losing a job. I know someone who was unemployed for two years before unloading their home. Telling people “oh they’ll be more inventory in the spring” is absurd.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Feds alone may not be able to buy inside the beltway but they are married to other non-Feds and together with the two incomes could afford nicer houses. But that becomes shakier when one or both spouses lose jobs due to fed or fed adjacent cuts.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

+1. The real story in this area is the contractors. They're getting laid off in droves and they might not get a decent severance. They were the ones buying those expensive inside-the-beltway SFHs. In my inside-the-beltway neighborhood, the houses around $1 to $1.3 million are getting scooped up by feds, while the more expensive stuff is starting to sit. It all makes sense when you think about the fact that contractors are most at risk by this administration's actions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'd wait 'til the fall. This area has yet to come to terms with the economic damage the current administration is doing. There will be more sellers in 6 months.

+1. There will be fewer people wanting to buy in this area because there will be no jobs here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

I think the problem is people suggesting certain timing. People’s homes are frequently the last thing they unload after losing a job. I know someone who was unemployed for two years before unloading their home. Telling people “oh they’ll be more inventory in the spring” is absurd.

This. Most people will try to get other jobs, cut back spending, and use savings before uprooting their families. Especially if one spouse still has a job or they have a low mortgage rate or they have kids in school or they're settled into their community. They're not going to throw in the towel and put their house on the market in 6 weeks.

Plus these days the nicer neighborhoods even in desirable mid-sized cities are about as expensive as similar DC area neighborhoods. The rest of the country outpaced DC for residential real estate inflation during the pandemic. The model of selling your DC home that's worth so much more than the new home so you can pay cash is now defunct. So where would you even move to where both parents could get similarly paying jobs and afford a similar home?

[Anonymous]

For the homes that are listed, I do think buyer demand is more muted. All the buyers excited and ready to spend, at today's prices with today's rates, are out now. So yes, you might have a bidding war like a PP mentioned in Arlington,- but those 4 couples are the only competition. As each new house gets picked off, there will be less competition. But we are a month away from seeing the true February data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

+1. The real story in this area is the contractors. They're getting laid off in droves and they might not get a decent severance. They were the ones buying those expensive inside-the-beltway SFHs. In my inside-the-beltway neighborhood, the houses around $1 to $1.3 million are getting scooped up by feds, while the more expensive stuff is starting to sit. It all makes sense when you think about the fact that contractors are most at risk by this administration's actions.

This is is horse sh**. Contractors aren’t making that much more than Feds. My circle of college friends and my spouse’s company have almost nobody inside the beltway, especially not Arlington/Bethesda. I can think of one family dual contractors in Falls Church. Not even company owners live in those areas, only one SVP whose spouse is a surgeon. These are not the “beltway bandits” or the swamp people making bank. It’s okay that you don’t understand. But this is not where the real money is and never has been.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

+1. The real story in this area is the contractors. They're getting laid off in droves and they might not get a decent severance. They were the ones buying those expensive inside-the-beltway SFHs. In my inside-the-beltway neighborhood, the houses around $1 to $1.3 million are getting scooped up by feds, while the more expensive stuff is starting to sit. It all makes sense when you think about the fact that contractors are most at risk by this administration's actions.

This is is horse sh**. Contractors aren’t making that much more than Feds. My circle of college friends and my spouse’s company have almost nobody inside the beltway, especially not Arlington/Bethesda. I can think of one family dual contractors in Falls Church. Not even company owners live in those areas, only one SVP whose spouse is a surgeon. These are not the “beltway bandits” or the swamp people making bank. It’s okay that you don’t understand. But this is not where the real money is and never has been.

I’m sorry this is completely untrue. In the defense space that my boyfriend is in they are clearing $275- 400k. Higher ups at my firm are clearing low millions. All of my federal friends (gs employees) are 190k and below. Most are around $160k with no equity of course and no bonus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

I think the problem is people suggesting certain timing. People’s homes are frequently the last thing they unload after losing a job. I know someone who was unemployed for two years before unloading their home. Telling people “oh they’ll be more inventory in the spring” is absurd.

I agree I doubt they will unload in 6 weeks but at some point if things don’t turn around by the end of the year a lot of people will try to sell because they are sitting on a lot of equity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

+1. The real story in this area is the contractors. They're getting laid off in droves and they might not get a decent severance. They were the ones buying those expensive inside-the-beltway SFHs. In my inside-the-beltway neighborhood, the houses around $1 to $1.3 million are getting scooped up by feds, while the more expensive stuff is starting to sit. It all makes sense when you think about the fact that contractors are most at risk by this administration's actions.

This is is horse sh**. Contractors aren’t making that much more than Feds. My circle of college friends and my spouse’s company have almost nobody inside the beltway, especially not Arlington/Bethesda. I can think of one family dual contractors in Falls Church. Not even company owners live in those areas, only one SVP whose spouse is a surgeon. These are not the “beltway bandits” or the swamp people making bank. It’s okay that you don’t understand. But this is not where the real money is and never has been.

I’m sorry this is completely untrue. In the defense space that my boyfriend is in they are clearing $275- 400k. Higher ups at my firm are clearing low millions. All of my federal friends (gs employees) are 190k and below. Most are around $160k with no equity of course and no bonus.

That’s pretty industry-specific. But the Rs never cut defense or even scrutinize those contracts, so not likely to be impacted now either. There is a ton of waste in the DOD, and it’s untouchable.

The people who do the work for most agencies, the billable ones, aren’t making much more than the Feds they support, unless they are 1099s and there’s no overhead or benefits. Sure the company owners, and SVPs are handsomely compensated by comparison, but that’s true in any industry. And there are many fewer of them that there are billable workers. All that said, the company owners and SVPs still don’t live close in. They have enormous homes out in FFX or Loudoun or Potomac, for land and “privacy.” And vacation homes in other states. They have a lot of things they can sell before they need to panic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Panic selling from fed layoffs? You would need to look for houses in Manassas or Fredericksburg to find those.

This. SFH inside the beltway are just too expensive for Feds, unless they had or have another source of income (family money, previous $$$ work in private sector, etc.), or if they bought ages ago and are close to retirement anyway, in which case they may not sell if they have a super low interest rate or house is already paid off.

Maybe for feds but not all the contractors getting laid off.

+1. The real story in this area is the contractors. They're getting laid off in droves and they might not get a decent severance. They were the ones buying those expensive inside-the-beltway SFHs. In my inside-the-beltway neighborhood, the houses around $1 to $1.3 million are getting scooped up by feds, while the more expensive stuff is starting to sit. It all makes sense when you think about the fact that contractors are most at risk by this administration's actions.

This is is horse sh**. Contractors aren’t making that much more than Feds. My circle of college friends and my spouse’s company have almost nobody inside the beltway, especially not Arlington/Bethesda. I can think of one family dual contractors in Falls Church. Not even company owners live in those areas, only one SVP whose spouse is a surgeon. These are not the “beltway bandits” or the swamp people making bank. It’s okay that you don’t understand. But this is not where the real money is and never has been.

I’m sorry this is completely untrue. In the defense space that my boyfriend is in they are clearing $275- 400k. Higher ups at my firm are clearing low millions. All of my federal friends (gs employees) are 190k and below. Most are around $160k with no equity of course and no bonus.

That’s pretty industry-specific. But the Rs never cut defense or even scrutinize those contracts, so not likely to be impacted now either. There is a ton of waste in the DOD, and it’s untouchable.

The people who do the work for most agencies, the billable ones, aren’t making much more than the Feds they support, unless they are 1099s and there’s no overhead or benefits. Sure the company owners, and SVPs are handsomely compensated by comparison, but that’s true in any industry. And there are many fewer of them that there are billable workers. All that said, the company owners and SVPs still don’t live close in. They have enormous homes out in FFX or Loudoun or Potomac, for land and “privacy.” And vacation homes in other states. They have a lot of things they can sell before they need to panic.

They are making contract cuts to the defense space but yes I agree that it’s much easier to find a job when you have a high clearance and a specialty like this.