APS Engage Update Pre-CIP Report

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The APS planning staff work with County planning staff and use the best information available to project enrollment. Read their reports, they painstakingly detail their methodology if you care. Go to school and get a planning degree and join them and do a better job!

Do they go to every home and interview the residents about their thoughts and dreams and plans for the future? No. They are PROJECTIONS.

+1!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Build new facilities in South Arlington, where the county needs them, already!

Stop messing around with boundaries and whatnot to try to alleviate crowding in the south by moving kids north. Please.

And I live in North Arlington.

So the County should spend tens of millions of dollars to build new elementary schools and leave some half empty. Um, no.

It’s not great, but when all the population growth is in South Arlington but the underenrolled schools are in North Arlington, the County is going to have to redistribute the kids every few years over and over to keep moving kids north if they don’t build more facilities in the south, where the kids are!

IN THE MEANTIME.....
You do realize it takes ten years to get a new building (1) sited (2) planned and (3) built?
You can't share your space and sacrifice a little so others don't have to endure disproportionate burden? Oh, sorry. I forgot - your kid having to go on a bus or a little farther away is disproportionate burden to a bunch of other kids having classes in hallways and closets, lunch at 9:45, and no running during recess.

We authorize hundreds of millions of dollars in CIP debt every two years. We are not strapped for cash.

No one has to “sacrifice” anything, except our free time to make sure it’s money that is being well spent.

Spoken like a true north arlingtonian who wants for nothing.
"Cash" isn't the cited problem. I cited TIME. It takes TEN YEARS to get a new school built. So suck up a little inconvenience for the sake of others who don't have the luxury of under-enrolled, high performing schools like you do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can’t imagine they are actually going to close Nottingham. Once the wealthy Nottingham parents start fussing about it (and they already are), the school board will back down for sure. You don’t mess with the rich, white elementary schools in Arlington, do you?

I guess you missed when they closed McKinley.

True, but they moved all of McKinley together to a brand new building at Cardinal. That’s different from what they are proposing here.

Except for the neighborhoods that were rezoned to Ashlawn.

Those zones could have stayed at Cardinal, except APS was trying to empty Notting and put those kids at Cardinal. Those families were sent to Ashlawn because of APS's plan to close Nottingham, not because of the school move.

What? No Nottingham kids were impacted with Cardinal coming on line. Nottingham was not touched during that boundary adjustment. Tuckahoe kids were moved.

What happened is too many Nottingham families went private during covid and didn't come back and now Nottingham has the least robust enrollment.

The Nottingham neighborhood has a lot of demographic turnover in the last few years. People are moving here specifically for the school. APS’s data and projections don’t seem to be accounting for that, and they are going to find themselves flat footed at the first economic downturn when people can’t swing $50k/year tuitions anymore. They were off by 20 kids at Nottingham for 2023 alone. Multiplied over the NW schools you go from underenrolled to over capacity just like that.

Not this argument again!

When they redid boundaries for McK back before it moved, there was a Nottingham realtor with the same argument saying that anything other than overcrowding McK would make Nottingham too overcrowded in the future b/c demographics were changing. So, they moved the Tuckahoe kids to McK, overcrowded it and left Nottingham with a small school........which I guess eventually backfired.

Then adjust the boundaries! Have we not seen what happens when we close down elementary schools around here? It takes forever to get these sites up and running as neighborhood schools again, after dealing with all the special non educational interests that have taken it over in the meantime and remediating the lack of investment in necessary upgrades. In the meantime schools are overcrowded, like parents said they would be, and APS keeps pretending like we couldn’t see it coming.

Let’s try to govern this system rationally for once. More neighborhood schools, ditch the options, and arrange borders how they make sense based on something more than projected VHC births in 10 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have never understood the obsession with walkable schools. My kids have gone to both walkable and non-walkable. Particularly in elementary school, getting bused is awesome. Great community at the bus stop. I built more neighborhood community doing that than being a walker. Very convenient in the mornings in particular if you work. My kids loved the bus. Walkable schools when they're young and need to be accompanied on the walk and you're on the outer part of the walkable area is a pain in the ass.

+1
I'll let you in on a secret, though: it isn't about being able to walk to school. It's about being entitled to whatever you want, where you want it, when you want it, how you want it. And, more critically, what you don't want and what you purposely planned and paid to avoid. It just sounds nicer under the banners of "walkability" and "efficiency."

Transportation costs money, wastes time, and is bad for the environment. “Car free diet”, remember?

Just a few short years ago the county was complaining about a shortage of bus drivers and reducing bus costs. Now they want to force buses and cars all over the county. Specifically, on to hilly roads with poor line of sight, built 70 years ago and not fit for the purpose. People have died on Little Falls Street within sight of Nottingham. We only just got 4 way stops, and only after much complaining. I guess that’s entitlement for you, that we don’t want our community members dying in pedestrian incidents.

It’s a neighborhood area that needs less cut through traffic, not more. And APS hasn’t said boo about that in all 200+ pages of its “analysis”.

I guess that’s entitlement to you. Sorry you have lower standards. Some of us expect better for the money spent.

What is your proposed solution to the actual issues at hand if you are done having a tantrum? The actual issues are crowding in some schools and under capacity at others. The other issue is inability to do desperately needed renovations due to lack of swing space. We're all waiting for your ideas. Some of you seem to think everyone who can walk to a school should get to go to that school forever and however many kids show up on the first day of school is how it will turn out. No. You're part of a larger system with other variables.

By the way, these same freak outs took place when they zoned Cardinal, which has a lot more bused kids than was originally planned and many kids who could walk don't go there. Westover would be overrun! Mayhem in the streets! Accidents!

And it's fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

Hyperbole much? I mean who said anything about 100% accuracy? Seems like a brand new school should not have to be redrawn every four years? That seems inept. And they get paid A LOT and this process is time consuming, bitter and incredibly wasteful. Seems like doing it less often would be a huge win for everyone. Yet they keep doing it. All the time. It’s not that I don’t expect this ever as a parent but is every year a huge fight about moving students around because the planners at APS cannot accurately predict.
Ever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

Hyperbole much? I mean who said anything about 100% accuracy? Seems like a brand new school should not have to be redrawn every four years? That seems inept. And they get paid A LOT and this process is time consuming, bitter and incredibly wasteful. Seems like doing it less often would be a huge win for everyone. Yet they keep doing it. All the time. It’s not that I don’t expect this ever as a parent but is every year a huge fight about moving students around because the planners at APS cannot accurately predict.
Ever.

More revisionist history. APS had committed publicly to a full elementary and middle school boundary process when they re-zoned Cardinal and you all freaked out and said Covid was hard and it was too hard for your kids and they kicked the can down the road. So now here we all are. Just a couple years later.

They cave to your demands and then you are relentlessly unhappy and miserable anyway. Sincerely it would be better if APS just made plans and told everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

Hyperbole much? I mean who said anything about 100% accuracy? Seems like a brand new school should not have to be redrawn every four years? That seems inept. And they get paid A LOT and this process is time consuming, bitter and incredibly wasteful. Seems like doing it less often would be a huge win for everyone. Yet they keep doing it. All the time. It’s not that I don’t expect this ever as a parent but is every year a huge fight about moving students around because the planners at APS cannot accurately predict.
Ever.

More revisionist history. APS had committed publicly to a full elementary and middle school boundary process when they re-zoned Cardinal and you all freaked out and said Covid was hard and it was too hard for your kids and they kicked the can down the road. So now here we all are. Just a couple years later.

They cave to your demands and then you are relentlessly unhappy and miserable anyway. Sincerely it would be better if APS just made plans and told everyone.

Ignoring DHMS point. Again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

Hyperbole much? I mean who said anything about 100% accuracy? Seems like a brand new school should not have to be redrawn every four years? That seems inept. And they get paid A LOT and this process is time consuming, bitter and incredibly wasteful. Seems like doing it less often would be a huge win for everyone. Yet they keep doing it. All the time. It’s not that I don’t expect this ever as a parent but is every year a huge fight about moving students around because the planners at APS cannot accurately predict.
Ever.

More revisionist history. APS had committed publicly to a full elementary and middle school boundary process when they re-zoned Cardinal and you all freaked out and said Covid was hard and it was too hard for your kids and they kicked the can down the road. So now here we all are. Just a couple years later.

They cave to your demands and then you are relentlessly unhappy and miserable anyway. Sincerely it would be better if APS just made plans and told everyone.

Raise your hand on this board if you can remember a time when there wasn’t a knock down drag out fight about school boundaries annually at APS?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

APS says they are basing their projections off VHC birth data based on the number of childbearing women and demographic trends, coupled with a “capture” factor based on past enrollment rates relative to birth data.

Any parent competing for a waitlist spot in 2023 can see the limitations of this methodology. It assumes a traditional buy home, birth kids, and move/consider private schools in 5 years pattern.

NW Arlington no longer has what I’d call “starter home” communities. It’s simply too expensive. People are moving here for the schools, largely into homes being vacated by boomers who haven’t put kids in 20+ years, after they have had at least some of their children. They are coming from out of state, DC, and other parts of Arlington. Birth data is not capturing them.

Projections also can’t take into account the impact of APS’s own decisions in driving opt-outs. We still don’t know where the COVID lost kids went, but have to assume they are still here in private schools and could re-enroll in APS at the first sign of an economic meltdown or a return to normalcy.

Arlington’s projection data is not capturing any of this. It’s not easy to turn observation into quantifiable data but we absolutely need to try if we’re not going to be caught flat footed every 3-5 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

APS says they are basing their projections off VHC birth data based on the number of childbearing women and demographic trends, coupled with a “capture” factor based on past enrollment rates relative to birth data.

Any parent competing for a waitlist spot in 2023 can see the limitations of this methodology. It assumes a traditional buy home, birth kids, and move/consider private schools in 5 years pattern.

NW Arlington no longer has what I’d call “starter home” communities. It’s simply too expensive. People are moving here for the schools, largely into homes being vacated by boomers who haven’t put kids in 20+ years, after they have had at least some of their children. They are coming from out of state, DC, and other parts of Arlington. Birth data is not capturing them.

Projections also can’t take into account the impact of APS’s own decisions in driving opt-outs. We still don’t know where the COVID lost kids went, but have to assume they are still here in private schools and could re-enroll in APS at the first sign of an economic meltdown or a return to normalcy.

Arlington’s projection data is not capturing any of this. It’s not easy to turn observation into quantifiable data but we absolutely need to try if we’re not going to be caught flat footed every 3-5 years.

THIS! We spend enormous taxpayer dollars on this same thing every year. Why not spend it in investing in some actually planning data/expertise instead of relying on the proven bad track record of APS planners. Who are demonstrably bad at their job.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

I don’t understand how this happens so often and the seats are so off. That’s where I see the ineffectiveness. DHMS has operated for what four years? They need to completely upend the boundaries of a school they just opened?

Why aren't parents better at predicting the future than APS is at projections? Ceases to amaze me that parents seem to think they have more foresight than the people they expect to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

Hyperbole much? I mean who said anything about 100% accuracy? Seems like a brand new school should not have to be redrawn every four years? That seems inept. And they get paid A LOT and this process is time consuming, bitter and incredibly wasteful. Seems like doing it less often would be a huge win for everyone. Yet they keep doing it. All the time. It’s not that I don’t expect this ever as a parent but is every year a huge fight about moving students around because the planners at APS cannot accurately predict.
Ever.

More revisionist history. APS had committed publicly to a full elementary and middle school boundary process when they re-zoned Cardinal and you all freaked out and said Covid was hard and it was too hard for your kids and they kicked the can down the road. So now here we all are. Just a couple years later.

They cave to your demands and then you are relentlessly unhappy and miserable anyway. Sincerely it would be better if APS just made plans and told everyone.

Ignoring DHMS point. Again.

The projections in the report show Hamm as stable and right around capacity. There’s really no reason to mess with it in this round. I don’t know why they are moving that big chunk to Williamsburg.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Restore the “Rosslyn Island.” The Rosslyn students in high density housing were zoned to Williamsburg up until 2019 or so when the boundaries last changed. No one except APS staff complained about it since it looked “weird.”

It contributed to socio-economic diversity and also helped fill the school since Williamsburg is in an area of low density single family homes.

Rosslyn families complained. But I guess they shouldn’t have a voice.

Rosslyn students would either be bussed to Williamsburg or Hamm. I think homes a block away from Hamm within view of the school itself should be zoned to Hamm over bussing neighborhoods from Rosslyn.

Of course Rosslyn families should have a voice. But their options are limited since there are no middle schools near Rosslyn.

Because the Taylor families complained having about a Rosslyn middle school.

There’s no sense in dredging up the past. A number of factors came into play which the school board voted on. We have to work with the schools we have now.

The families at the affordable Woodbury Park apartments near the Clarendon Whole Foods did publicly complain about the boundary island and being bussed to Williamsburg and Yorktown instead of Hamm and W-L. Unfortunately they ended up being bussed to TJ instead of Hamm, while still going to Yorktown. So Woodbury Park kids are now more isolated than ever. They should probably be zoned to Hamm and W-L with the Science Focus families, while the Innovation neighborhoods in Rosslyn and Lyon Village should be zoned to Williamsburg and Yorktown.

It's just interesting seeing it all play out now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What APS should do is review the middle and high school boundaries together to ensure logical school pyramids. Not wait to do the high school boundaries later as they propose.

A million percent

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Restore the “Rosslyn Island.” The Rosslyn students in high density housing were zoned to Williamsburg up until 2019 or so when the boundaries last changed. No one except APS staff complained about it since it looked “weird.”

It contributed to socio-economic diversity and also helped fill the school since Williamsburg is in an area of low density single family homes.

^Rosslyn students would be bussed to any middle school. So it shouldn’t be too hard for APS staff to draw a contiguous boundary with Rosslyn to create a Williamsburg MS zone for Innovation ES. It doesn’t have to be an “island” boundary like before if APS staff finds that unacceptable. If APS gave any thought to both walkability and socio-economic diversity, such a scenario would be a no-brainer.

It's maddening that everyone has such short or distorted memory. APS staff isn't to blame for the dislike for "map islands." That was ALL because of COMMUNITY complaints. People always pick whatever bolsters their self-interests to argue for certain boundary outcomes. Then they blame APS staff for listening.

Actually you’re wrong. The island as it existed kept upper income neighborhoods at WL and Swanson while bussing Rosslyn to Yorktown and Williamsburg, all in the name of diversity. APS staff during public outreach said they (i.e. staff) preferred getting rid of the island to create a contiguous boundaries. The W-L students were outraged and spoke at the school board meeting.