Did we actually get the birth decline?

[Anonymous]

It seems many schools received an increase of applications. Does anyone know whether we actually experienced the birth decline and every applicant is just applying to more schools? Or are there actually more students this year?

[Anonymous]

We'll see that in the yield numbers, yes?

[Anonymous]

I think we’ll have to wait until 2028, or 2029, for that. 2007 had the most births, and the end of year has the common birth months, so this year was busy, it’ll be better next year.

[Anonymous]

Yes - there a small schools closing down. the acceptance rate for a lot of privates are going up.

The only thing that went up is the dream to go to Harvard.

[Anonymous]

There are smaller colleges already closing. There was a thread about a recent example in this forum this week.

The result of birth rate decline will be higher competition at some universities and decline / closure of other (mostly smaller) colleges

[Anonymous]

Decline is happening. Top kids are applying to more schools. Schools impacted are those much further down the list than generally discussed here - demand for top schools will remain high but there won't be enough to fill seats at lower schools.

That being said "cliff" is a pretty exaggerated term, particularly for the next few years. There is a decline, but not that huge. Decline might also be exacerbated by a reduced demand for college degrees in general as costs go up and there are more jobs that don't require them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It seems many schools received an increase of applications. Does anyone know whether we actually experienced the birth decline and every applicant is just applying to more schools? Or are there actually more students this year?

The number of actual kids applying could drop 20% but a school that recently decided to adopt the Common App will see a massive spike in applications because it is now so easy to apply vs. last year and more kids add that to their list.

If the number of kids applying drops 5%, but each kid is applying to 10% more schools...then you will still see a rise in applications.

As others pointed out, it will reveal itself in Yields.

[Anonymous]

Not this year!!! More applicants than last year.

[Anonymous]

The decline has started but will keep dropping off for several more years. Record application numbers is about more students applying widely to the same popular schools. In the end, enrollment numbers aren’t increasing. Students are concentrating attendance at certain universities, putting smaller and more rural colleges at risk of closure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not this year!!! More applicants than last year.

More applications doesn’t mean more individual applicants.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Decline is happening. Top kids are applying to more schools. Schools impacted are those much further down the list than generally discussed here - demand for top schools will remain high but there won't be enough to fill seats at lower schools.

That being said "cliff" is a pretty exaggerated term, particularly for the next few years. There is a decline, but not that huge. Decline might also be exacerbated by a reduced demand for college degrees in general as costs go up and there are more jobs that don't require them.

Where is there evidence of this trend (in bold)? For the last 30+ years, the trend has been in the opposite direction, with nearly every job requiring a college degree even things like retail management or office management that never did before and don't require high level academics to master. Is there evidence employers for these positions are actually changing their requirements?

I recall this trend even expanding up to graduate school, at least for a time. One of my best friends went into event planning and was working for a big corporations when she was told that she could not be promoted beyond her current level unless she got a masters degree. In event planning. It was such a weird requirements, that's a hands on job that is mostly about logistics, she already had an undergrad double major in finance and design. But credentialism is pernicious.

[Anonymous]

The increase in apps to test optional schools because more schools are requiring test scores.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Decline is happening. Top kids are applying to more schools. Schools impacted are those much further down the list than generally discussed here - demand for top schools will remain high but there won't be enough to fill seats at lower schools.

That being said "cliff" is a pretty exaggerated term, particularly for the next few years. There is a decline, but not that huge. Decline might also be exacerbated by a reduced demand for college degrees in general as costs go up and there are more jobs that don't require them.

Where is there evidence of this trend (in bold)? For the last 30+ years, the trend has been in the opposite direction, with nearly every job requiring a college degree even things like retail management or office management that never did before and don't require high level academics to master. Is there evidence employers for these positions are actually changing their requirements?

I recall this trend even expanding up to graduate school, at least for a time. One of my best friends went into event planning and was working for a big corporations when she was told that she could not be promoted beyond her current level unless she got a masters degree. In event planning. It was such a weird requirements, that's a hands on job that is mostly about logistics, she already had an undergrad double major in finance and design. But credentialism is pernicious.

See this article. And I'm sure there are plenty of others. I'm not saying this reduced demand is currently in play, but it is definitely being actively discussed in many circles and is very likely to play out. Some of the shift could also be to very targeted community college programs, and one could argue whether those count or not.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-dramatic-shift-americans-no-longer-see-four-year-college-degrees-rcna243672

[Anonymous]

Does the common app report how many individual accounts are opened each year for applicants? Instead of looking at the number of applications, would be more useful to look at the number of accounts that are making applications.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not this year!!! More applicants than last year.

More applications, but not more total students applying. The number of applicants in total reduced, but kids are applying to more schools. This will impact yield b/c that means more spots offered are being turned down.