Did we actually get the birth decline?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Does the common app report how many individual accounts are opened each year for applicants? Instead of looking at the number of applications, would be more useful to look at the number of accounts that are making applications.

This! Average number of applications per student seem to keep going up b/c people are scared of uncertainty. That, of course, drives up the uncertainty. :p

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Decline is happening. Top kids are applying to more schools. Schools impacted are those much further down the list than generally discussed here - demand for top schools will remain high but there won't be enough to fill seats at lower schools.

That being said "cliff" is a pretty exaggerated term, particularly for the next few years. There is a decline, but not that huge. Decline might also be exacerbated by a reduced demand for college degrees in general as costs go up and there are more jobs that don't require them.

Where is there evidence of this trend (in bold)? For the last 30+ years, the trend has been in the opposite direction, with nearly every job requiring a college degree even things like retail management or office management that never did before and don't require high level academics to master. Is there evidence employers for these positions are actually changing their requirements?

I recall this trend even expanding up to graduate school, at least for a time. One of my best friends went into event planning and was working for a big corporations when she was told that she could not be promoted beyond her current level unless she got a masters degree. In event planning. It was such a weird requirements, that's a hands on job that is mostly about logistics, she already had an undergrad double major in finance and design. But credentialism is pernicious.

See this article. And I'm sure there are plenty of others. I'm not saying this reduced demand is currently in play, but it is definitely being actively discussed in many circles and is very likely to play out. Some of the shift could also be to very targeted community college programs, and one could argue whether those count or not.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-dramatic-shift-americans-no-longer-see-four-year-college-degrees-rcna243672

Right but this is not people getting jobs that used to required 4 year degrees which now don't. It's people opting into trades like construction or mechanical work that have never required college degrees, because they think they can do better economically in those jobs than in the kind of job that a college degree can get you. I get that sentiment, given the high price of college.

But it's also factually untrue. Over and over, college graduates command higher incomes than those without a college degree, and have significantly higher lifetime earnings, even with the opportunity costs of delaying careers until college is complete. That is partly because of the low ceiling for jobs in the trades -- if you aren't willing or able to go into business for yourself, you will top out at a very low income. It's also partly due to shorter careers -- many trades are physically demanding and people are not able to do them for 40 years to build up savings. And careers in the trades often don't carry the same financial benefits as college careers in terms of health insurance, retirement benefits, even paid leave.

Unless more jobs that currently require or preference college degrees start reversing course (and I would support this for the many jobs that truly do not require a college education but use a bachelors degree as a way to screen candidates for qualities like responsibility and diligence -- we need better, less expensive ways for people to prove they are worthwhile candidates, other than spending four years and tens of thousands of dollars learning things that will in no way help them do their jobs), college degrees are still usually worth it. The kids eschewing college now because of the cost will suffer the cost of that choice later when they are extremely limited in what they can do for a living (or they'll go back for their degrees in their late 20s or 30s specifically to open up doors for themselves, even within the trades).

[Anonymous]

If anyone is thinking "demographic cliff" is going to make it easier to get into an Ivy or New Ivy or T20 or T30 or selective, popular SLAC, it will not.

The popular & prestigious schools will remain highly rejective. Johnny & Susie still need safeties they'd be happy to attend & a good selection of targets

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If anyone is thinking "demographic cliff" is going to make it easier to get into an Ivy or New Ivy or T20 or T30 or selective, popular SLAC, it will not.

The popular & prestigious schools will remain highly rejective. Johnny & Susie still need safeties they'd be happy to attend & a good selection of targets

What is New Ivy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If anyone is thinking "demographic cliff" is going to make it easier to get into an Ivy or New Ivy or T20 or T30 or selective, popular SLAC, it will not.

The popular & prestigious schools will remain highly rejective. Johnny & Susie still need safeties they'd be happy to attend & a good selection of targets

What is New Ivy?

Varies based on source. I think Forbes just came out with new list or WSJ? It’s all ridiculous

The point is, popular schools or schools people believe are prestigious (bc various publications tell you they are), are not going to get easier to get into in any appreciable way

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Decline is happening. Top kids are applying to more schools. Schools impacted are those much further down the list than generally discussed here - demand for top schools will remain high but there won't be enough to fill seats at lower schools.

That being said "cliff" is a pretty exaggerated term, particularly for the next few years. There is a decline, but not that huge. Decline might also be exacerbated by a reduced demand for college degrees in general as costs go up and there are more jobs that don't require them.

Where is there evidence of this trend (in bold)? For the last 30+ years, the trend has been in the opposite direction, with nearly every job requiring a college degree even things like retail management or office management that never did before and don't require high level academics to master. Is there evidence employers for these positions are actually changing their requirements?

I recall this trend even expanding up to graduate school, at least for a time. One of my best friends went into event planning and was working for a big corporations when she was told that she could not be promoted beyond her current level unless she got a masters degree. In event planning. It was such a weird requirements, that's a hands on job that is mostly about logistics, she already had an undergrad double major in finance and design. But credentialism is pernicious.

See this article. And I'm sure there are plenty of others. I'm not saying this reduced demand is currently in play, but it is definitely being actively discussed in many circles and is very likely to play out. Some of the shift could also be to very targeted community college programs, and one could argue whether those count or not.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-dramatic-shift-americans-no-longer-see-four-year-college-degrees-rcna243672

Oh look who doesn't think college is valuable. 74% of Republicans. With their Penn educated president.

[Anonymous]

The size of the bell curve is shrinking, but the variance is increasing. This means more elite-caliber students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If anyone is thinking "demographic cliff" is going to make it easier to get into an Ivy or New Ivy or T20 or T30 or selective, popular SLAC, it will not.

The popular & prestigious schools will remain highly rejective. Johnny & Susie still need safeties they'd be happy to attend & a good selection of targets

On the contrary, they will continue to get more selective as kids get savvier and savvier at younger ages and college admissions info diffuses quicker and quicker

[Anonymous]

It shows up by all the random colleges that nobody really knows about closing.

This is from today's Washington Post:

Higher education, a source of overheated anxiety about population “pressure” threatening the planet’s “sustainability,” will suffer from a “birth dearth” and perhaps curtailment of legal immigration. Economist Tyler Cowen, writing for the Free Press, notes that a shrinking cohort of college-age Americans will accelerate this: Since 2013, more than 700 — about 15 percent — of U.S. colleges have closed.