Are schools going to close because of low enrollment?

[Anonymous]

I saw from the lottery data there was a 6% drop in enrollment. So many schools matched only a small percent of their seats, especially in pre-k3. Will some charters just have to close before next school year? DCPS has said in the past they will use stability funds so that no one school’s budget drops, but what do they do when a school doesn’t have enough children to fill a class? I have seen news stories about declining enrollment and huge cuts in other cities, but nothing from DC.

I just clicked through some schools. Burrville elementary (DCPS) only matched 3 pk3 students. Apple Tree Douglas Knoll opened 75 seats for PK and only matched 7. Many schools only matched one half of their seats.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

[Anonymous]

I think they should close schools but I understand why they need to be careful.

1. That would leave a literal education desert EOTR.

2. The DCPS schools have to be ready to absorb OB students from failed charters.

[Anonymous]

Yes, eventually some schools will close. Some charters already have. But, before that happens, they can just not offer as many classrooms. As long as expenses are trimmed to match, having a smaller enrollment is manageable. In the long run some teachers might have to start teaching elementary instead of preschool.

We have basically two school systems and hardly any centralized planning that accounts for both of them. DCPS can and does close schools, but it very rarely does that because it still has to guarantee enough seats for every child and the population could tick up again in the long run. And if a charter school closes, those kids have the right to their DCPS school on zero notice. So, DCPS maintains some extra capacity. And frankly given the number of charter schools that are looking pretty iffy, DCPS isn't wrong to be prepared for absorbing some kids.

Also, not filling up in the initial lottery isn't necessarily a problem. Some schools offer way more lottery seats than they've ever filled, just to avoid turning anyone away, and exist for years just fine without filling up in the initial lottery. They can accept kids all summer and during the school year if they want to. There are families still figuring out their plans and families moving here after the lottery and during the school year. So it's good that not all seats are taken in the initial lottery. The real question is what's the enrollment by Count Day in October.

Now, it's certainly possible that some charters will close, because charters can close on zero notice or be involuntarily closed because of financial collapse. There are a number of charters on basically probation-- improve or be closed-- and a number that have declining enrollment over the past 3-4 years.

When DCPS says that about stabilization funds, they mean just for this year. There could totally be budget cuts in the next year if enrollment doesn't rebound.

[Anonymous]

Also, be aware that DCPS has other ways of filling seats. There are zero-to-three programs at certain elementary schools and I'm not sure if those kids need to lottery to have a PK3 spot in their same school. And there's also Early Stages which is how children with developmental needs can get a PK3 spot before they're of age. And all of the self-contained classrooms for special education have their own placement process. Charters can have self-contained classrooms too but I'm not sure how placement works. Anyway, the point is, what you see in the lottery data is only part of the PK3 enrollment picture. So yes, enrollment is down for the youngest kids and some adjustments will be made, but it's not necessarily a huge problem that a school didn't fill in the lottery.

Also, some DCPS schools are overcrowded so having less kids isn't a problem for them at all. Using the 2024 MFP, that includes Bancroft, Barnard, Brent, Brightwood, Garrison, Hearst, Oyster-Adams, and others. So a few less preschool and K kids might result in the enrollment being a better fit for the building size.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Also, be aware that DCPS has other ways of filling seats. There are zero-to-three programs at certain elementary schools and I'm not sure if those kids need to lottery to have a PK3 spot in their same school. And there's also Early Stages which is how children with developmental needs can get a PK3 spot before they're of age. And all of the self-contained classrooms for special education have their own placement process. Charters can have self-contained classrooms too but I'm not sure how placement works. Anyway, the point is, what you see in the lottery data is only part of the PK3 enrollment picture. So yes, enrollment is down for the youngest kids and some adjustments will be made, but it's not necessarily a huge problem that a school didn't fill in the lottery.

Also, some DCPS schools are overcrowded so having less kids isn't a problem for them at all. Using the 2024 MFP, that includes Bancroft, Barnard, Brent, Brightwood, Garrison, Hearst, Oyster-Adams, and others. So a few less preschool and K kids might result in the enrollment being a better fit for the building size.

DCPS also has other ways to deal with the budget. The mayor’s budget proposal transfers 50+ million dollars of expenses to other agencies. The end result is that it’s easier for DCPS to balance the budget but it is also a tactic to hide money from charter students. The formula is supposed to be the DCPS budget divided by the number of kids is the amount of per pupil money set for charters. Sneaking money out of the dcps budget means that it doesn’t have to be counted in the formula for charters.

I really wish DCPS would open up seats in their popular schools for displaced students or maybe the more popular charters could have a set aside.

[Anonymous]

Lottery Nerd here. Just thought I'd help out by listing all the schools that have PK3 matches of less than 16 this year (assuming that 16 is a full class). I've also added Equitable Access matches and regular matches (as I think those are different kids, but I'm not 100% confident of that) and I removed any situations where the number of matches were equal to seats offered (DC Wildflower Blue Montessori for example only matched 12 kids, but only offered 12 seats):

Achievement Prep PCS - Wahler Place 15
AppleTree PCS - Douglas Knoll 6
AppleTree PCS - Southwest 10
Burrville Elementary School 5
Center City PCS - Capitol Hill 14
Center City PCS - Congress Heights 9
Center City PCS - NOMA 6
Center City PCS - Petworth 12
Center City PCS - Shaw 8
DC Wildflower PCS - The Riverseed School 10
Drew Elementary School 5
Excel Academy 7
Friendship PCS - Ideal Elementary 13
Global Citizens PCS (Chinese Language Program) 13
Harmony DC PCS - School of Excellence 14
Hendley Elementary School 8
King Elementary School 4
LaSalle-Backus Elementary School 13
Leckie Education Campus 10
Lorraine H. Whitlock Elementary School 11
Malcolm X Elementary School @ Green 5
Mary McLeod Bethune Day Academy PCS - 16th Street 8
Mary McLeod Bethune Day Academy PCS - Brookland 8
Meridian Public Charter School - Elementary School 12
Moten Elementary School 5
Nalle Elementary School 13
Nalle Montessori 2
Patterson Elementary School 7
Perry Street Preparatory PCS 15
Plummer Elementary School 4
Roots PCS 10
Savoy Elementary School 5
Simon Elementary School 2
Smothers Elementary School 8
Stanton Elementary School 11
Thomas Elementary School 8
Walker-Jones Education Campus 11
Wheatley Education Campus 14

[Anonymous]

Seems like they should close some of these charters over the next few years, particularly if the academics are also weak.

I’m not familiar with the review process for charters. Are there things that trigger a review (enrollment, test scores) or does it just happen on a schedule? What is considered in a review?

I know there was a school that collapsed at the last minute last year, but I thought that was NOT at the request of the review board. When was the last time a PCS was required to close because it failed its review?

Seems to me that the worst case scenario is a school closing either during the school year or after the lottery for the next year when they matched kids. You really want schools to announce they are closing prior to March so that people can lottery with that knowledge. Particularly with falling enrollments, the review board should be willing to force schools to close with plenty of notice for families rather than allowing them to fail with short notice.

[Anonymous]

I would definitely separate DCPS from Charters in this conversation. It’s a completely different calculus and process. I’d be surprised if we see closures anytime soon in DCPS.

Charters in the other hand, it’s being very openly talked about in the sector that schools absolutely will close in the next few years over this, unless we suddenly see lots of 2yr olds moving to DC next fall. Unfortunately, DCPCSB, while clearly aware of this, seems completely unwilling to confront the reality in practice. Maybe that will start to shift with this most recent lottery data and some of the board turnover. Because what they really need is some thoughtful managed wind down, but instead what we get is Hope Tolsom and Eagle (and heartbreakingly children who were at Eagle and went to Hope after). Charters don’t really have sector planning (part of the point after all), but DCPCSB could be doing a lot more here.

I agree that individual schools can do some right sizing with their budgets and they obviously should. There are limitations though, because of facilities, which tends to be a significant largely fixed cost that they can’t always address. There was some report that went around a while ago about which charters are paying disproportionally high per pupil costs for their locations. The schools I’d be most worried about are the charters who sit at the intersection of declining enrollment and high per pupil facilities costs.

That said, I also agree the lottery numbers are a proxy early indicator for declining enrollment, they don’t necessarily mean declining enrollment. Looking at a given school’s history can provide more insight (eg how many seats do they usually offered how many do they usually fill round one, how many do they end up enrolling; what’s the trend line and where does this year fit). From that, I worry about SSMA but I don’t think they were on the list of expensive facilities. But I cannot find that report now. Maybe someone else can.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would definitely separate DCPS from Charters in this conversation. It’s a completely different calculus and process. I’d be surprised if we see closures anytime soon in DCPS.

Charters in the other hand, it’s being very openly talked about in the sector that schools absolutely will close in the next few years over this, unless we suddenly see lots of 2yr olds moving to DC next fall. Unfortunately, DCPCSB, while clearly aware of this, seems completely unwilling to confront the reality in practice. Maybe that will start to shift with this most recent lottery data and some of the board turnover. Because what they really need is some thoughtful managed wind down, but instead what we get is Hope Tolsom and Eagle (and heartbreakingly children who were at Eagle and went to Hope after). Charters don’t really have sector planning (part of the point after all), but DCPCSB could be doing a lot more here.

I agree that individual schools can do some right sizing with their budgets and they obviously should. There are limitations though, because of facilities, which tends to be a significant largely fixed cost that they can’t always address. There was some report that went around a while ago about which charters are paying disproportionally high per pupil costs for their locations. The schools I’d be most worried about are the charters who sit at the intersection of declining enrollment and high per pupil facilities costs.

That said, I also agree the lottery numbers are a proxy early indicator for declining enrollment, they don’t necessarily mean declining enrollment. Looking at a given school’s history can provide more insight (eg how many seats do they usually offered how many do they usually fill round one, how many do they end up enrolling; what’s the trend line and where does this year fit). From that, I worry about SSMA but I don’t think they were on the list of expensive facilities. But I cannot find that report now. Maybe someone else can.

All good points. The disproportionate facility costs are the thing to watch. This is the report, but looking at each school's annual budget would provide an update.

The other factor is whether the school's management organization is willing to take losses or provide financial life support. I think Rocketship is already doing that. But no matter how much money there is, no kids = no school.

https://dcpcsb.org/financial-analysis-reports

[Anonymous]

The PCSB had a "Sector Planning Roundtable" at which these issues were discussed and the staff member at the end gives the bottom line, which is that the equivalent of 7 or 8 schools will need to close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UBr1Ih7dfw

Enrollment trends of individual schools can be viewed here: https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326

I do think there are some kids sitting out PK3 and PK4, mostly in Ward 3, because they didn't get into their IB or anything else they liked/found convenient. Those kids could potentially be brought into the system.

I'm concerned about Harmony because their plan to move into the Hope building is premised on recruiting more kids than they currently have. I was surprised the PCBS accepted it so uncritically but I guess letting schools make dumb choices and fail is their idea of autonomy and flexibility.

Any school that had conditions on its charter review (SSMA, Rocketship, KIPP, others), is on the Financial Monitoring List, has a bad review in the Financial Analysis Report, has consistent declines in enrollment (Roots, SSMA, CMI, others), is in trouble and bears watching. I hope that this process can play out in an orderly manner and that larger LEAs can smoothly consolidate with face-saving "mergers" that really have the effect of closing their lowest-performing sites.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems like they should close some of these charters over the next few years, particularly if the academics are also weak.

I’m not familiar with the review process for charters. Are there things that trigger a review (enrollment, test scores) or does it just happen on a schedule? What is considered in a review?

I know there was a school that collapsed at the last minute last year, but I thought that was NOT at the request of the review board. When was the last time a PCS was required to close because it failed its review?

Seems to me that the worst case scenario is a school closing either during the school year or after the lottery for the next year when they matched kids. You really want schools to announce they are closing prior to March so that people can lottery with that knowledge. Particularly with falling enrollments, the review board should be willing to force schools to close with plenty of notice for families rather than allowing them to fail with short notice.

There is a schedule of reviews every 5 years (a supposedly tougher "renewal" every 15 years). https://dcpcsb.org/charter-reviews-and-renewals Failing schools tend to be given three more years to either pull it together or collapse. There are academics and financial criteria. The PCSB can also review a school at any time, when it has serious problems of basically any kind. And they can do behind the scenes stuff like calling in the school's board for meetings, telling them very clearly that they're in serious trouble, and imposing a Financial Corrective Action Plan.

They already changed the review schedule so that failing schools are reviewed in the wintertime, pre-lottery. And they've been making troubled schools notify their families that the school is on a PIP.

But the bottom line is the PCSB is really, really reluctant to close schools because they don't want to be the bad guy, and they'd rather watch a disorderly closure play out and wash their hands of it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The PCSB had a "Sector Planning Roundtable" at which these issues were discussed and the staff member at the end gives the bottom line, which is that the equivalent of 7 or 8 schools will need to close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UBr1Ih7dfw

Enrollment trends of individual schools can be viewed here: https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326

I do think there are some kids sitting out PK3 and PK4, mostly in Ward 3, because they didn't get into their IB or anything else they liked/found convenient. Those kids could potentially be brought into the system.

I'm concerned about Harmony because their plan to move into the Hope building is premised on recruiting more kids than they currently have. I was surprised the PCBS accepted it so uncritically but I guess letting schools make dumb choices and fail is their idea of autonomy and flexibility.

Any school that had conditions on its charter review (SSMA, Rocketship, KIPP, others), is on the Financial Monitoring List, has a bad review in the Financial Analysis Report, has consistent declines in enrollment (Roots, SSMA, CMI, others), is in trouble and bears watching. I hope that this process can play out in an orderly manner and that larger LEAs can smoothly consolidate with face-saving "mergers" that really have the effect of closing their lowest-performing sites.

The Harmony thing seems insane to me. They know the sector needs to shrink! What on earth were they thinking. It’s this unwillingness to make tough decisions that ultimately really harms children, and probably the whole sector (obviously they should care first and foremost about children, but even if it’s self interest all the way down, they should care).

[Anonymous]

What happens to the charter school buildings and playgrounds/fields when they close?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What happens to the charter school buildings and playgrounds/fields when they close?

They just sit until someone buys or rents them. Or I suppose they could be converted into something else like office space, or housing but that's harder to do because of plumbing. DCPS uses some for office space I think. And swing space for renovations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The PCSB had a "Sector Planning Roundtable" at which these issues were discussed and the staff member at the end gives the bottom line, which is that the equivalent of 7 or 8 schools will need to close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UBr1Ih7dfw

Enrollment trends of individual schools can be viewed here: https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326

I do think there are some kids sitting out PK3 and PK4, mostly in Ward 3, because they didn't get into their IB or anything else they liked/found convenient. Those kids could potentially be brought into the system.

I'm concerned about Harmony because their plan to move into the Hope building is premised on recruiting more kids than they currently have. I was surprised the PCBS accepted it so uncritically but I guess letting schools make dumb choices and fail is their idea of autonomy and flexibility.

Any school that had conditions on its charter review (SSMA, Rocketship, KIPP, others), is on the Financial Monitoring List, has a bad review in the Financial Analysis Report, has consistent declines in enrollment (Roots, SSMA, CMI, others), is in trouble and bears watching. I hope that this process can play out in an orderly manner and that larger LEAs can smoothly consolidate with face-saving "mergers" that really have the effect of closing their lowest-performing sites.

The Harmony thing seems insane to me. They know the sector needs to shrink! What on earth were they thinking. It’s this unwillingness to make tough decisions that ultimately really harms children, and probably the whole sector (obviously they should care first and foremost about children, but even if it’s self interest all the way down, they should care).

I think the idea is Harmony's current building isn't big enough for an economically viable school. So it's grow or give up. Not sure how long the Harmony company will be willing to subsidize it.

Less traffic for McKinley Tech/Mckinley Middle/Langley dropoff will certainly be nice.