Are schools going to close because of low enrollment?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The PCSB had a "Sector Planning Roundtable" at which these issues were discussed and the staff member at the end gives the bottom line, which is that the equivalent of 7 or 8 schools will need to close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UBr1Ih7dfw

Enrollment trends of individual schools can be viewed here: https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326

I do think there are some kids sitting out PK3 and PK4, mostly in Ward 3, because they didn't get into their IB or anything else they liked/found convenient. Those kids could potentially be brought into the system.

I'm concerned about Harmony because their plan to move into the Hope building is premised on recruiting more kids than they currently have. I was surprised the PCBS accepted it so uncritically but I guess letting schools make dumb choices and fail is their idea of autonomy and flexibility.

Any school that had conditions on its charter review (SSMA, Rocketship, KIPP, others), is on the Financial Monitoring List, has a bad review in the Financial Analysis Report, has consistent declines in enrollment (Roots, SSMA, CMI, others), is in trouble and bears watching. I hope that this process can play out in an orderly manner and that larger LEAs can smoothly consolidate with face-saving "mergers" that really have the effect of closing their lowest-performing sites.

The Harmony thing seems insane to me. They know the sector needs to shrink! What on earth were they thinking. It’s this unwillingness to make tough decisions that ultimately really harms children, and probably the whole sector (obviously they should care first and foremost about children, but even if it’s self interest all the way down, they should care).

Well, I think they were thinking that Hope had closed and therefore the sector in the immediate area had shrunk somewhat. And I'm sure the financial backing of the Harmony company made them more open to it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The PCSB had a "Sector Planning Roundtable" at which these issues were discussed and the staff member at the end gives the bottom line, which is that the equivalent of 7 or 8 schools will need to close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UBr1Ih7dfw

Enrollment trends of individual schools can be viewed here: https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326

I do think there are some kids sitting out PK3 and PK4, mostly in Ward 3, because they didn't get into their IB or anything else they liked/found convenient. Those kids could potentially be brought into the system.

I'm concerned about Harmony because their plan to move into the Hope building is premised on recruiting more kids than they currently have. I was surprised the PCBS accepted it so uncritically but I guess letting schools make dumb choices and fail is their idea of autonomy and flexibility.

Any school that had conditions on its charter review (SSMA, Rocketship, KIPP, others), is on the Financial Monitoring List, has a bad review in the Financial Analysis Report, has consistent declines in enrollment (Roots, SSMA, CMI, others), is in trouble and bears watching. I hope that this process can play out in an orderly manner and that larger LEAs can smoothly consolidate with face-saving "mergers" that really have the effect of closing their lowest-performing sites.

The Harmony thing seems insane to me. They know the sector needs to shrink! What on earth were they thinking. It’s this unwillingness to make tough decisions that ultimately really harms children, and probably the whole sector (obviously they should care first and foremost about children, but even if it’s self interest all the way down, they should care).

Well, I think they were thinking that Hope had closed and therefore the sector in the immediate area had shrunk somewhat. And I'm sure the financial backing of the Harmony company made them more open to it.

[Anonymous]

Sorry for the duplicate posts

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The PCSB had a "Sector Planning Roundtable" at which these issues were discussed and the staff member at the end gives the bottom line, which is that the equivalent of 7 or 8 schools will need to close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UBr1Ih7dfw

Enrollment trends of individual schools can be viewed here: https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326

I do think there are some kids sitting out PK3 and PK4, mostly in Ward 3, because they didn't get into their IB or anything else they liked/found convenient. Those kids could potentially be brought into the system.

I'm concerned about Harmony because their plan to move into the Hope building is premised on recruiting more kids than they currently have. I was surprised the PCBS accepted it so uncritically but I guess letting schools make dumb choices and fail is their idea of autonomy and flexibility.

Any school that had conditions on its charter review (SSMA, Rocketship, KIPP, others), is on the Financial Monitoring List, has a bad review in the Financial Analysis Report, has consistent declines in enrollment (Roots, SSMA, CMI, others), is in trouble and bears watching. I hope that this process can play out in an orderly manner and that larger LEAs can smoothly consolidate with face-saving "mergers" that really have the effect of closing their lowest-performing sites.

The Harmony thing seems insane to me. They know the sector needs to shrink! What on earth were they thinking. It’s this unwillingness to make tough decisions that ultimately really harms children, and probably the whole sector (obviously they should care first and foremost about children, but even if it’s self interest all the way down, they should care).

Well, I think they were thinking that Hope had closed and therefore the sector in the immediate area had shrunk somewhat. And I'm sure the financial backing of the Harmony company made them more open to it.

Sure, but I don’t think the lottery data is bearing that hypothesis out. And they have also literally said to the sector do not try to grow your way out of a budget problem, it will not work right now.

Mostly I feel terrible for anyone who was at Hope Tolsom and ends up at Harmony if this experiment fails. But also, only 10% meeting or above ELA and 16% for math, I don’t know why PCSB wants to grow that regardless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The PCSB had a "Sector Planning Roundtable" at which these issues were discussed and the staff member at the end gives the bottom line, which is that the equivalent of 7 or 8 schools will need to close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UBr1Ih7dfw

Enrollment trends of individual schools can be viewed here: https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326

I do think there are some kids sitting out PK3 and PK4, mostly in Ward 3, because they didn't get into their IB or anything else they liked/found convenient. Those kids could potentially be brought into the system.

I'm concerned about Harmony because their plan to move into the Hope building is premised on recruiting more kids than they currently have. I was surprised the PCBS accepted it so uncritically but I guess letting schools make dumb choices and fail is their idea of autonomy and flexibility.

Any school that had conditions on its charter review (SSMA, Rocketship, KIPP, others), is on the Financial Monitoring List, has a bad review in the Financial Analysis Report, has consistent declines in enrollment (Roots, SSMA, CMI, others), is in trouble and bears watching. I hope that this process can play out in an orderly manner and that larger LEAs can smoothly consolidate with face-saving "mergers" that really have the effect of closing their lowest-performing sites.

The Harmony thing seems insane to me. They know the sector needs to shrink! What on earth were they thinking. It’s this unwillingness to make tough decisions that ultimately really harms children, and probably the whole sector (obviously they should care first and foremost about children, but even if it’s self interest all the way down, they should care).

Well, I think they were thinking that Hope had closed and therefore the sector in the immediate area had shrunk somewhat. And I'm sure the financial backing of the Harmony company made them more open to it.

Sure, but I don’t think the lottery data is bearing that hypothesis out. And they have also literally said to the sector do not try to grow your way out of a budget problem, it will not work right now.

Mostly I feel terrible for anyone who was at Hope Tolsom and ends up at Harmony if this experiment fails. But also, only 10% meeting or above ELA and 16% for math, I don’t know why PCSB wants to grow that regardless.

I 100% agree. It was a dumb idea from the start. But here we are.

It does seem like they are more lenient with schools that have financial backing in general.

[Anonymous]

I'm kind of surprised that there isn't an occupancy-cost-per-enrollment ratio as a KFI. It seems to come up pretty often in the Financial Analysis Report. It can be viewed on Data Table Exhibit 11 as a percentage of total expenses, so that's something.

https://dcpcsb.egnyte.com/dl/9Tmw4gkwjM7H

From the FY 2024 FAR, outliers as a percentage of total expenses (over 20%):
Achievement Prep
CC Prep
DCB
Early Childhood Academy-- maybe that's to be expected for a preschool-focused LEA?
Girls Global
LAMB
LAYC
Monument
Richard Wright, 31%-- ouch
Rocketship
Roots
Washington Global

And of course the departed Hope and Capital Village would be on this list. Eagle at 18% does not, but close. So I do think it's valuable as a predictive metric.

[Anonymous]

I think it’s the norm in some of these school communities to fill up with late signups?
I work with one of the schools on here that has fewer than 12 matches for preK3. Not sure about preK… but having worked with 7 other grades in that school, every classroom is around the 20-22 kid range.
In other words, they don’t seem like a school with an enrollment problem. Maybe they typically fill over the spring/summer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s the norm in some of these school communities to fill up with late signups?
I work with one of the schools on here that has fewer than 12 matches for preK3. Not sure about preK… but having worked with 7 other grades in that school, every classroom is around the 20-22 kid range.
In other words, they don’t seem like a school with an enrollment problem. Maybe they typically fill over the spring/summer.

That is true. But now that there are fewer kids in the school system, it's unclear whether they will be able to do that going forward.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s the norm in some of these school communities to fill up with late signups?
I work with one of the schools on here that has fewer than 12 matches for preK3. Not sure about preK… but having worked with 7 other grades in that school, every classroom is around the 20-22 kid range.
In other words, they don’t seem like a school with an enrollment problem. Maybe they typically fill over the spring/summer.

Yes, that's true. There was a study done on at-risk kids and the common lottery. They found that at-risk families are most likely to apply after the lottery. In working with at-risk schools, a huge number of enrollees are coming in July, August and even September.

[Anonymous]

Makes me wonder if this explains the timing of the child care subsidy waitlist aka freeze. I work in a child care center and many parents choose to leave their kids/enroll with with us for prek 3 and 4 due to our more consistent schedule and longer day plus year-round schedule. Oh, and smaller class size. Our prek classrooms have been full the last couple of years. I think OSSE/the mayor are desperately trying anything to squeeze as many kids from us and into the schools as possible.