Reply to Are schools going to close because of low enrollment?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I would definitely separate DCPS from Charters in this conversation. It’s a completely different calculus and process. I’d be surprised if we see closures anytime soon in DCPS.

Charters in the other hand, it’s being very openly talked about in the sector that schools absolutely will close in the next few years over this, unless we suddenly see lots of 2yr olds moving to DC next fall. Unfortunately, DCPCSB, while clearly aware of this, seems completely unwilling to confront the reality in practice. Maybe that will start to shift with this most recent lottery data and some of the board turnover. Because what they really need is some thoughtful managed wind down, but instead what we get is Hope Tolsom and Eagle (and heartbreakingly children who were at Eagle and went to Hope after). Charters don’t really have sector planning (part of the point after all), but DCPCSB could be doing a lot more here.

I agree that individual schools can do some right sizing with their budgets and they obviously should. There are limitations though, because of facilities, which tends to be a significant largely fixed cost that they can’t always address. There was some report that went around a while ago about which charters are paying disproportionally high per pupil costs for their locations. The schools I’d be most worried about are the charters who sit at the intersection of declining enrollment and high per pupil facilities costs.

That said, I also agree the lottery numbers are a proxy early indicator for declining enrollment, they don’t necessarily mean declining enrollment. Looking at a given school’s history can provide more insight (eg how many seats do they usually offered how many do they usually fill round one, how many do they end up enrolling; what’s the trend line and where does this year fit). From that, I worry about SSMA but I don’t think they were on the list of expensive facilities. But I cannot find that report now. Maybe someone else can. [/quote]

All good points. The disproportionate facility costs are the thing to watch. This is the report, but looking at each school's annual budget would provide an update.

The other factor is whether the school's management organization is willing to take losses or provide financial life support. I think Rocketship is already doing that. But no matter how much money there is, no kids = no school.

https://dcpcsb.org/financial-analysis-reports[/quote]

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