Draft 2026-2030 CIP Discussion

[Anonymous]

I noticed that this has popped up in a couple of other threads, but FCPS has released the draft of the new CIP. https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?id=DCNNDS5F78A0&open=&utm_campaign+=&utm_medium=email&

- For better or (probably) worse, they've stuck with the 2008 renovation queue: The current estimates based on construction costs, available funding, and projected capacity requirements, indicate that all schools within the 2008 renovation queue will have funding for either planning/design or construction by FY 2029.

- A lot of the overcrowding concerns seem to be slipping away as people stop having kids. Student membership within FCPS is projected to begin an overall decline within the next five years. This is due to larger student cohorts exiting the division, and a lower number of births, which has resulted in smaller kindergarten cohorts entering the division.

- The current estimate for Centerville HS's renovation is $296M!

Schools with Substantial Capacity Deficit: Coates ES, Kilmer MS, West Springfield HS

My takeaways:

1) Given the long-term demographics and the medium-term immigration policies, there is no good reason to be building any new schools. The Western HS idea should be put to rest, and if there is still a chance to stop Dunn Loring...
2) The boundary adjustments are likely to be minimal and targeted with overcrowding becoming less of a concern. This board has been talking about WSHS and Langley/Herndon/McLean forever, but Kilmer/Marshall might be the other boundary that needs attention.
3) Renovation costs are through the roof. Either the queue is going to go really slow, or the architects will have to dial back what is being done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I noticed that this has popped up in a couple of other threads, but FCPS has released the draft of the new CIP. https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?id=DCNNDS5F78A0&open=&utm_campaign+=&utm_medium=email&

- For better or (probably) worse, they've stuck with the 2008 renovation queue: The current estimates based on construction costs, available funding, and projected capacity requirements, indicate that all schools within the 2008 renovation queue will have funding for either planning/design or construction by FY 2029.

- A lot of the overcrowding concerns seem to be slipping away as people stop having kids. Student membership within FCPS is projected to begin an overall decline within the next five years. This is due to larger student cohorts exiting the division, and a lower number of births, which has resulted in smaller kindergarten cohorts entering the division.

- The current estimate for Centerville HS's renovation is $296M!

Schools with Substantial Capacity Deficit: Coates ES, Kilmer MS, West Springfield HS

My takeaways:

1) Given the long-term demographics and the medium-term immigration policies, there is no good reason to be building any new schools. The Western HS idea should be put to rest, and if there is still a chance to stop Dunn Loring...
2) The boundary adjustments are likely to be minimal and targeted with overcrowding becoming less of a concern. This board has been talking about WSHS and Langley/Herndon/McLean forever, but Kilmer/Marshall might be the other boundary that needs attention.
3) Renovation costs are through the roof. Either the queue is going to go really slow, or the architects will have to dial back what is being done.

Apparently they significantly reduced the stated program capacity for Kilmer, which is why it’s now showing up as so overcrowded. Unclear whether it’s the correction of a past error or a new one, but it’s very odd.

Both the Western HS and Dunn Loring are embarrassing jokes, the former because it will never get built and always gets further postponed and the latter because it might get built even though there is clearly no need. The fact that they are still in the CIP while there’s no plan to deal with the challenges posed by Tysons growth speaks volumes about the incompetence, if not outright corruption, of the current School Board and Facilities staff.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I noticed that this has popped up in a couple of other threads, but FCPS has released the draft of the new CIP. https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?id=DCNNDS5F78A0&open=&utm_campaign+=&utm_medium=email&

- For better or (probably) worse, they've stuck with the 2008 renovation queue: The current estimates based on construction costs, available funding, and projected capacity requirements, indicate that all schools within the 2008 renovation queue will have funding for either planning/design or construction by FY 2029.

- A lot of the overcrowding concerns seem to be slipping away as people stop having kids. Student membership within FCPS is projected to begin an overall decline within the next five years. This is due to larger student cohorts exiting the division, and a lower number of births, which has resulted in smaller kindergarten cohorts entering the division.

- The current estimate for Centerville HS's renovation is $296M!

Schools with Substantial Capacity Deficit: Coates ES, Kilmer MS, West Springfield HS

My takeaways:

1) Given the long-term demographics and the medium-term immigration policies, there is no good reason to be building any new schools. The Western HS idea should be put to rest, and if there is still a chance to stop Dunn Loring...
2) The boundary adjustments are likely to be minimal and targeted with overcrowding becoming less of a concern. This board has been talking about WSHS and Langley/Herndon/McLean forever, but Kilmer/Marshall might be the other boundary that needs attention.
3) Renovation costs are through the roof. Either the queue is going to go really slow, or the architects will have to dial back what is being done.

If there is really an issue with Marshall they can send kids to Madison, which now has hundreds of empty seats.

[Anonymous]

I don't understand why they're projecting so much growth at WSHS. There aren't any new housing developments in the area. The CIP doesn't really explain the change and why they'd think so many more kids would live in the area when there is an overall decline of kids across the district.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand why they're projecting so much growth at WSHS. There aren't any new housing developments in the area. The CIP doesn't really explain the change and why they'd think so many more kids would live in the area when there is an overall decline of kids across the district.

That area has been built out for years, yet WSHS has still seen solid growth every year since 2017, including during the Covid period when overall FCPS enrollments dropped sharply.

2017: 2191 students
2018: 2281
2019: 2382
2020: 2485
2021: 2545
2022: 2650
2023: 2742
2024: 2791

Of course projections should be looking forward, not backwards, but there have also been WSHS parents claiming for years that the enrollment would drop the next year only for that not to turn out to be the case.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I noticed that this has popped up in a couple of other threads, but FCPS has released the draft of the new CIP. https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?id=DCNNDS5F78A0&open=&utm_campaign+=&utm_medium=email&

- For better or (probably) worse, they've stuck with the 2008 renovation queue: The current estimates based on construction costs, available funding, and projected capacity requirements, indicate that all schools within the 2008 renovation queue will have funding for either planning/design or construction by FY 2029.

- A lot of the overcrowding concerns seem to be slipping away as people stop having kids. Student membership within FCPS is projected to begin an overall decline within the next five years. This is due to larger student cohorts exiting the division, and a lower number of births, which has resulted in smaller kindergarten cohorts entering the division.

- The current estimate for Centerville HS's renovation is $296M!

Schools with Substantial Capacity Deficit: Coates ES, Kilmer MS, West Springfield HS

My takeaways:

1) Given the long-term demographics and the medium-term immigration policies, there is no good reason to be building any new schools. The Western HS idea should be put to rest, and if there is still a chance to stop Dunn Loring...
2) The boundary adjustments are likely to be minimal and targeted with overcrowding becoming less of a concern. This board has been talking about WSHS and Langley/Herndon/McLean forever, but Kilmer/Marshall might be the other boundary that needs attention.
3) Renovation costs are through the roof. Either the queue is going to go really slow, or the architects will have to dial back what is being done.

Apparently they significantly reduced the stated program capacity for Kilmer, which is why it’s now showing up as so overcrowded. Unclear whether it’s the correction of a past error or a new one, but it’s very odd.

Both the Western HS and Dunn Loring are embarrassing jokes, the former because it will never get built and always gets further postponed and the latter because it might get built even though there is clearly no need. The fact that they are still in the CIP while there’s no plan to deal with the challenges posed by Tysons growth speaks volumes about the incompetence, if not outright corruption, of the current School Board and Facilities staff.

The capacity at Kilmer is such a bizarre manufactured crisis. The enrollment is steadily around 1250 students. The building’s design capacity without modular is 1152. Last year the program capacity was 984, so nearly 200 seats below the design capacity. This year the program capacity is 791! What are they doing with the rest of the building? Did someone drywall over a hallway? The school would be at 108% without modulars if they actually used the building as a middle school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I noticed that this has popped up in a couple of other threads, but FCPS has released the draft of the new CIP. https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?id=DCNNDS5F78A0&open=&utm_campaign+=&utm_medium=email&

- For better or (probably) worse, they've stuck with the 2008 renovation queue: The current estimates based on construction costs, available funding, and projected capacity requirements, indicate that all schools within the 2008 renovation queue will have funding for either planning/design or construction by FY 2029.

- A lot of the overcrowding concerns seem to be slipping away as people stop having kids. Student membership within FCPS is projected to begin an overall decline within the next five years. This is due to larger student cohorts exiting the division, and a lower number of births, which has resulted in smaller kindergarten cohorts entering the division.

- The current estimate for Centerville HS's renovation is $296M!

Schools with Substantial Capacity Deficit: Coates ES, Kilmer MS, West Springfield HS

My takeaways:

1) Given the long-term demographics and the medium-term immigration policies, there is no good reason to be building any new schools. The Western HS idea should be put to rest, and if there is still a chance to stop Dunn Loring...
2) The boundary adjustments are likely to be minimal and targeted with overcrowding becoming less of a concern. This board has been talking about WSHS and Langley/Herndon/McLean forever, but Kilmer/Marshall might be the other boundary that needs attention.
3) Renovation costs are through the roof. Either the queue is going to go really slow, or the architects will have to dial back what is being done.

Apparently they significantly reduced the stated program capacity for Kilmer, which is why it’s now showing up as so overcrowded. Unclear whether it’s the correction of a past error or a new one, but it’s very odd.

Both the Western HS and Dunn Loring are embarrassing jokes, the former because it will never get built and always gets further postponed and the latter because it might get built even though there is clearly no need. The fact that they are still in the CIP while there’s no plan to deal with the challenges posed by Tysons growth speaks volumes about the incompetence, if not outright corruption, of the current School Board and Facilities staff.

The capacity at Kilmer is such a bizarre manufactured crisis. The enrollment is steadily around 1250 students. The building’s design capacity without modular is 1152. Last year the program capacity was 984, so nearly 200 seats below the design capacity. This year the program capacity is 791! What are they doing with the rest of the building? Did someone drywall over a hallway? The school would be at 108% without modulars if they actually used the building as a middle school.

Kilmer MS was renovated in the early 2000s. It doesn't seem remotely feasible that any MS renovated after 2000 was left with a program capacity less than 800 kids. I wonder whether some formula that relates to the Kilmer Center, which serves students with disabilities, is being applied to adjacent Kilmer MS, but that's speculation.

It's just too big a system for them to measure or manage effectively, as they demonstrate time and time again.

[Anonymous]

The school board just spent the first hour of the work session crying over not having enough money to maintain FCPS capital.

The SB is dragging the county down with the comprehensive boundary changes, and they are about to lose critical support of many residents that they can’t afford to lose. It’ll be funny to watch them screw over so many kids then come to us hat in hand. They won’t deserve it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand why they're projecting so much growth at WSHS. There aren't any new housing developments in the area. The CIP doesn't really explain the change and why they'd think so many more kids would live in the area when there is an overall decline of kids across the district.

Probably it's due to when the area was built. If area developments were mostly built in the early 80s, then there's still turnover to be had between retiree original owners and new young families. Since it's a desirable pyramid the chance that a house being sold by someone elderly will be bought by a family is high.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The school board just spent the first hour of the work session crying over not having enough money to maintain FCPS capital.

The SB is dragging the county down with the comprehensive boundary changes, and they are about to lose critical support of many residents that they can’t afford to lose. It’ll be funny to watch them screw over so many kids then come to us hat in hand. They won’t deserve it.

They are very big at playing the blame game. Karl Frisch must give them all talking points on how to be whiny simps.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand why they're projecting so much growth at WSHS. There aren't any new housing developments in the area. The CIP doesn't really explain the change and why they'd think so many more kids would live in the area when there is an overall decline of kids across the district.

Probably it's due to when the area was built. If area developments were mostly built in the early 80s, then there's still turnover to be had between retiree original owners and new young families. Since it's a desirable pyramid the chance that a house being sold by someone elderly will be bought by a family is high.

Some if not most of the area was built in the 60s, but yes, there is turnover between retiree original or second owners and new young families. On our block, every year one or two new families with young children moves in as the older family moves on, literally or figuratively.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand why they're projecting so much growth at WSHS. There aren't any new housing developments in the area. The CIP doesn't really explain the change and why they'd think so many more kids would live in the area when there is an overall decline of kids across the district.

Probably it's due to when the area was built. If area developments were mostly built in the early 80s, then there's still turnover to be had between retiree original owners and new young families. Since it's a desirable pyramid the chance that a house being sold by someone elderly will be bought by a family is high.

Almost everything has turned over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand why they're projecting so much growth at WSHS. There aren't any new housing developments in the area. The CIP doesn't really explain the change and why they'd think so many more kids would live in the area when there is an overall decline of kids across the district.

Probably it's due to when the area was built. If area developments were mostly built in the early 80s, then there's still turnover to be had between retiree original owners and new young families. Since it's a desirable pyramid the chance that a house being sold by someone elderly will be bought by a family is high.

Some if not most of the area was built in the 60s, but yes, there is turnover between retiree original or second owners and new young families. On our block, every year one or two new families with young children moves in as the older family moves on, literally or figuratively.

The houses were mostly builtin the 60s and 70s, except for Daventry and Gambrill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand why they're projecting so much growth at WSHS. There aren't any new housing developments in the area. The CIP doesn't really explain the change and why they'd think so many more kids would live in the area when there is an overall decline of kids across the district.

The neighborhoods around Carrleigh have some of the highest numbers of elderly empty nesters I’ve seen anywhere in the area. Plus the whole pyramid remains very desirable for military renters. That being said, I still don’t know how they get continued GROWTH in the area - it’s a small geographic area without any new development. I have to figure the population of WSHS and its feeder elementaries and middle have just about peaked by now?

[Anonymous]

St John Cunning just said they are moving students from Bucknell as part of the comprehensive boundary review.

She thanked all her colleagues for touching the third rail (aka boundary review).