Reply to Draft 2026-2030 CIP Discussion

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I noticed that this has popped up in a couple of other threads, but FCPS has released the draft of the new CIP. https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?id=DCNNDS5F78A0&open=&utm_campaign+=&utm_medium=email&

- For better or (probably) worse, they've stuck with the 2008 renovation queue:  [i]The current estimates based on construction costs, available funding, and projected capacity requirements, indicate that all schools within the 2008 renovation queue will have funding for either planning/design or construction by FY 2029.[/i]

-  A lot of the overcrowding concerns seem to be slipping away as people stop having kids.  [i]Student membership within FCPS is projected to begin an overall decline within the next five years. This is due to larger student cohorts exiting the division, and a lower number of births, which has resulted in smaller kindergarten cohorts entering the division. [/i]

- The current estimate for Centerville HS's renovation is $296M!

Schools with Substantial Capacity Deficit:  [b]Coates ES, Kilmer MS, West Springfield HS[/b]

My takeaways:

1) Given the long-term demographics and the medium-term immigration policies, there is no good reason to be building any new schools.  The Western HS idea should be put to rest, and if there is still a chance to stop Dunn Loring...
2) The boundary adjustments are likely to be minimal and targeted with overcrowding becoming less of a concern.  This board has been talking about WSHS and Langley/Herndon/McLean forever, but Kilmer/Marshall might be the other boundary that needs attention.
3) Renovation costs are through the roof.  Either the queue is going to go really slow, or the architects will have to dial back what is being done.

[/quote]

Apparently they significantly reduced the stated program capacity for Kilmer, which is why it’s now showing up as so overcrowded.  Unclear whether it’s the correction of a past error or a new one, but it’s very odd.

Both the Western HS and Dunn Loring are embarrassing jokes, the former because it will never get built and always gets further postponed and the latter because it might get built even though there is clearly no need.  The fact that they are still in the CIP while there’s no plan to deal with the challenges posed by Tysons growth speaks volumes about the incompetence, if not outright corruption, of the current School Board and Facilities staff. [/quote]
The capacity at Kilmer is such a bizarre manufactured crisis. The enrollment is steadily around 1250 students. The building’s design capacity without modular is 1152. Last year the program capacity was 984, so nearly 200 seats below the design capacity. This year the program capacity is 791! What are they doing with the rest of the building? Did someone drywall over a hallway? The school would be at 108% without modulars if they actually used the building as a middle school. [/quote]

Kilmer MS was renovated in the early 2000s.  It doesn't seem remotely feasible that any MS renovated after 2000 was left with a program capacity less than 800 kids.  I wonder whether some formula that relates to the Kilmer Center, which serves students with disabilities, is being applied to adjacent Kilmer MS, but that's speculation.

It's just too big a system for them to measure or manage effectively, as they demonstrate time and time again. [/quote]

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