Reply to Draft 2026-2030 CIP Discussion

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[quote=Anonymous]I noticed that this has popped up in a couple of other threads, but FCPS has released the draft of the new CIP. https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?id=DCNNDS5F78A0&open=&utm_campaign+=&utm_medium=email&

- For better or (probably) worse, they've stuck with the 2008 renovation queue:  [i]The current estimates based on construction costs, available funding, and projected capacity requirements, indicate that all schools within the 2008 renovation queue will have funding for either planning/design or construction by FY 2029.[/i]

-  A lot of the overcrowding concerns seem to be slipping away as people stop having kids.  [i]Student membership within FCPS is projected to begin an overall decline within the next five years. This is due to larger student cohorts exiting the division, and a lower number of births, which has resulted in smaller kindergarten cohorts entering the division. [/i]

- The current estimate for Centerville HS's renovation is $296M!

Schools with Substantial Capacity Deficit:  [b]Coates ES, Kilmer MS, West Springfield HS[/b]

My takeaways:

1) Given the long-term demographics and the medium-term immigration policies, there is no good reason to be building any new schools.  The Western HS idea should be put to rest, and if there is still a chance to stop Dunn Loring...
2) The boundary adjustments are likely to be minimal and targeted with overcrowding becoming less of a concern.  This board has been talking about WSHS and Langley/Herndon/McLean forever, but Kilmer/Marshall might be the other boundary that needs attention.
3) Renovation costs are through the roof.  Either the queue is going to go really slow, or the architects will have to dial back what is being done.

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