ECNL moving to school year not calendar

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The great repeat year in American soccer

The BY advocates won't agree, but the reality is that the Q4 players have been playing up since the fall of 2016. The kids the grade up aren't your peers. And you're the youngest. The Q4s who survive this long should do well when they get to "repeat" a year - which is just the opportunity to play with their school year peers. Hopefully that process starts in 25/26 and just becomes "formal" in 26/27.

What you say is actually proven. The 4Q players that are still playing competitively at U13 / U14 / U15 end up don’t better than their older peers when they’re grown and there are no longer material physical development differences between players born a year or less apart.

Don’t better? But I agree have a Q3 daughter plays/starts ECNL and I’m hoping she is good enough to stay on the 11/12 team. But would be fun to watch her play with the 13/12 sometimes. Just to see what it’s like being a Q1 kid.

End up doing better than their peers.

It makes sense. As a younger player going against older and bigger kids, if you are still competing at a high level when you are 13, 14, and 15 years old it means your skill level is higher and your soccer IQ is also higher.

My boy is a late December 2010 baby and is a bit of a late developer. One thing I started noticing at around age 10 is that he made very quick decisions - one or two touch passes. Clean first touches and control. Accurate passes. Good vision. Technical dribbling.

I think he knew he was too small to try to compete physically with his teammates and opponents, so he adapted.

Now what happens when he is no longer 3-5 inches shorter and 20-30 pounds lighter than his competitors?

He gets bored and wonders why he can't play with his old team.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The great repeat year in American soccer

The BY advocates won't agree, but the reality is that the Q4 players have been playing up since the fall of 2016. The kids the grade up aren't your peers. And you're the youngest. The Q4s who survive this long should do well when they get to "repeat" a year - which is just the opportunity to play with their school year peers. Hopefully that process starts in 25/26 and just becomes "formal" in 26/27.

What you say is actually proven. The 4Q players that are still playing competitively at U13 / U14 / U15 end up don’t better than their older peers when they’re grown and there are no longer material physical development differences between players born a year or less apart.

Don’t better? But I agree have a Q3 daughter plays/starts ECNL and I’m hoping she is good enough to stay on the 11/12 team. But would be fun to watch her play with the 13/12 sometimes. Just to see what it’s like being a Q1 kid.

End up doing better than their peers.

It makes sense. As a younger player going against older and bigger kids, if you are still competing at a high level when you are 13, 14, and 15 years old it means your skill level is higher and your soccer IQ is also higher.

My boy is a late December 2010 baby and is a bit of a late developer. One thing I started noticing at around age 10 is that he made very quick decisions - one or two touch passes. Clean first touches and control. Accurate passes. Good vision. Technical dribbling.

I think he knew he was too small to try to compete physically with his teammates and opponents, so he adapted.

Now what happens when he is no longer 3-5 inches shorter and 20-30 pounds lighter than his competitors?

He gets bored and wonders why he can't play with his old team.

He can move up a level. Instead of ECNL RL where he is now, he can play ECNL in his own age category. If he gets bored there, move him up until he isn’t bored anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’d like to check out the BY meltdown

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/225/1264315.page

After switching to SY, only the top current Q1/Q2 will survive after two seasons in the ECNL/MLS team. Most Q1/Q2 will be demoted to the second team. Like the current very few Q3/Q4, who still remain in the ECNL/MLS team, they will dominate the younger group. This is a statistical fact. BY parents try mental gymnastics very hard to convince themself this would not happen or that somehow P2P MLS and GA will still stay in BY.

100%

This could be true in the younger age groups -- because you are oversimplifying these age group effects -- but in 2 seasons anyone already playing 11v11 are either graduated or past the point where birth month matters. Also, now some Q3 will still be the youngest. The Sept 1 cutoff further minimizes the change, not that it won't be make big differences but not at the level described here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’d like to check out the BY meltdown

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/225/1264315.page

After switching to SY, only the top current Q1/Q2 will survive after two seasons in the ECNL/MLS team. Most Q1/Q2 will be demoted to the second team. Like the current very few Q3/Q4, who still remain in the ECNL/MLS team, they will dominate the younger group. This is a statistical fact. BY parents try mental gymnastics very hard to convince themself this would not happen or that somehow P2P MLS and GA will still stay in BY.

100%

This could be true in the younger age groups -- because you are oversimplifying these age group effects -- but in 2 seasons anyone already playing 11v11 are either graduated or past the point where birth month matters. Also, now some Q3 will still be the youngest. The Sept 1 cutoff further minimizes the change, not that it won't be make big differences but not at the level described here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’d like to check out the BY meltdown

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/225/1264315.page

After switching to SY, only the top current Q1/Q2 will survive after two seasons in the ECNL/MLS team. Most Q1/Q2 will be demoted to the second team. Like the current very few Q3/Q4, who still remain in the ECNL/MLS team, they will dominate the younger group. This is a statistical fact. BY parents try mental gymnastics very hard to convince themself this would not happen or that somehow P2P MLS and GA will still stay in BY.

100%

This could be true in the younger age groups -- because you are oversimplifying these age group effects -- but in 2 seasons anyone already playing 11v11 are either graduated or past the point where birth month matters. Also, now some Q3 will still be the youngest. The Sept 1 cutoff further minimizes the change, not that it won't be make big differences but not at the level described here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a different take on this.

Parent of a late Dec player on a top ECNL club. Leading scorer, US Talent ID Center, etc. Has always been one of the best players on birth year team despite being youngest and even a late developer.

While some parents are salivating at the prospect of their kid playing down and dominating their SY peers, I'm concerned the advantages reaped from having played against older, more mature birth year peers over the years might diminish.

Would prefer to keep them in as challenging an environment for as long as possible until puberty runs its course and the physical playing field is leveled ... and thereby maximize long-term benefits over short-term success.

Exactly. For my Q4 daughter, I'm left questioning how I spin it to her that playing U13 for two years is a good thing. Lol

My duaghter's 2011 ECNL team has a 2013 that plays a lot. If your kids are good they can still play up.

That is extremely rare and unlikely for most clubs.

It is currently but I think we'll see it a lot more during this transition and for a few seasons until the current group of players, especially those already in 11v11, cycle through the system.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The great repeat year in American soccer

Not really. Teams change every year. Probably more will move this year and next if you're Sept/Q4, as clubs and players seek an edge which isn't guaranteed. But after that parents trumpeting their kid's birth certificate will again fade into the background.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’d like to check out the BY meltdown

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/225/1264315.page

After switching to SY, only the top current Q1/Q2 will survive after two seasons in the ECNL/MLS team. Most Q1/Q2 will be demoted to the second team. Like the current very few Q3/Q4, who still remain in the ECNL/MLS team, they will dominate the younger group. This is a statistical fact. BY parents try mental gymnastics very hard to convince themself this would not happen or that somehow P2P MLS and GA will still stay in BY.

This is less of a concern for older teams, as the population of elite Q3/4's is by now much lower than it would be if each Q was represented equally. That is, for every Q1/Q2 that is on a team, only .33 of a Q3/Q4 exists to take their spot.

I would say it's even less than that. In my area it's probably less than 10%.

Some people here think kids at lower leagues who are Sept-Q4 will be battle-tested enough that they'll overwhelm current Q1/Q2/Jul-Aug players at the highest levels. We shall see.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BY peeps are dead

It’s not the BY people sitting out, it’s everyone except for the totally insane SY parents.

The ones still left are the ones that think their 5th team December kid is now 1st team.

The parents that can’t wait until 2026.

The parents that that can’t fathom why MLSN hasn’t announced SY yet.

The parents who see a DOC talking to them because of their kids hard work as some confirmation of a previous conspiracy to favor Q1 kids.

The Q4 parents who have discovered the underdog effect of RAE and think it says something positive for their SY age cutoff child in the future.

And so on. You all are boring and are congratulating yourselves for the future your child is, according to you, destined to have because of their birth month. 🥱 that is why this thread is slowing down. It’s stupid, and other threads are now more germane.

This +828

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’d like to check out the BY meltdown

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/225/1264315.page

After switching to SY, only the top current Q1/Q2 will survive after two seasons in the ECNL/MLS team. Most Q1/Q2 will be demoted to the second team. Like the current very few Q3/Q4, who still remain in the ECNL/MLS team, they will dominate the younger group. This is a statistical fact. BY parents try mental gymnastics very hard to convince themself this would not happen or that somehow P2P MLS and GA will still stay in BY.

This is less of a concern for older teams, as the population of elite Q3/4's is by now much lower than it would be if each Q was represented equally. That is, for every Q1/Q2 that is on a team, only .33 of a Q3/Q4 exists to take their spot.

I would say it's even less than that. In my area it's probably less than 10%.

Some people here think kids at lower leagues who are Sept-Q4 will be battle-tested enough that they'll overwhelm current Q1/Q2/Jul-Aug players at the highest levels. We shall see.

They will get their shot to prove themselves, if it's close they will stick with the known commidity. There will be a few that benefit tremendously though.

[Anonymous]

Talked to a dad from our former club, it is one of the new NL additions. He said they have a matrix of all of the potential NL players with their birthdays. He thinks they will base selections off of that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’d like to check out the BY meltdown

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/225/1264315.page

After switching to SY, only the top current Q1/Q2 will survive after two seasons in the ECNL/MLS team. Most Q1/Q2 will be demoted to the second team. Like the current very few Q3/Q4, who still remain in the ECNL/MLS team, they will dominate the younger group. This is a statistical fact. BY parents try mental gymnastics very hard to convince themself this would not happen or that somehow P2P MLS and GA will still stay in BY.

This is less of a concern for older teams, as the population of elite Q3/4's is by now much lower than it would be if each Q was represented equally. That is, for every Q1/Q2 that is on a team, only .33 of a Q3/Q4 exists to take their spot.

I would say it's even less than that. In my area it's probably less than 10%.

Some people here think kids at lower leagues who are Sept-Q4 will be battle-tested enough that they'll overwhelm current Q1/Q2/Jul-Aug players at the highest levels. We shall see.

They will get their shot to prove themselves, if it's close they will stick with the known commidity. There will be a few that benefit tremendously though.

Yeah, their age/current team, say RL, will get them a more serious look, sorta like the kid from a lower league who made an ODP team but no guarantees.

[Anonymous]

I think this thread may get to 1000 as parents come here to complain that either:

1) My kid got demoted because of a SeptQ4 player

2) My kid didn't get promoted even though they're SeptQ4 -- what gives?

And then there'll be ...

Nothing changed for my kid and what's the big deal?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think this thread may get to 1000 as parents come here to complain that either:

1) My kid got demoted because of a SeptQ4 player

2) My kid didn't get promoted even though they're SeptQ4 -- what gives?

And then there'll be ...

Nothing changed for my kid and what's the big deal?

This thread will get to a 1000 within days after the USCS/USYS/AYSO joint announcement on "transitional rules". Assuming we've not got there already.

Hope the BY advocates can survive the ordeal (probably not).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this thread may get to 1000 as parents come here to complain that either:

1) My kid got demoted because of a SeptQ4 player

2) My kid didn't get promoted even though they're SeptQ4 -- what gives?

And then there'll be ...

Nothing changed for my kid and what's the big deal?

This thread will get to a 1000 within days after the USCS/USYS/AYSO joint announcement on "transitional rules". Assuming we've not got there already.

Hope the BY advocates can survive the ordeal (probably not).

I'm sure they will do their part to make this transition as toxic as possible lol.