Why the "Demographic Cliff" won't help your kid get into the Ivies

[Anonymous]

Japan is shrinking. Greater Tokyo is growing.

South Korea is shrinking. Seoul is growing.

New York State is declining. New York City isn't growing because it doesn't build housing, but real estate prices show that pent up demand is enormous.

Similarly, the number of high school seniors in the U.S. is going to decline (the "demographic cliff").

This will make colleges overall easier to get into (if you're applying to the college equivalent of a split level in suburban Cleveland) but not if you're applying to a school like Yale (the college equivalent of a penthouse in Manhattan).

The population is shrinking in the developed world because people are getting savvier and more in control of their lives, relative to their parents and grandparents. People who are savvier and more in control of their lives want better things for themselves, and have a better idea of how to get them. This does not bode well if you want your kid to get into Harvard easily.

The pie will shrink due to closures of the weaker schools. Competition overall may stay the same or even decline slightly. But competition over the best spots will intensify. Fewer students, but more students willing to knife fight over that Ivy spot. Just like fewer Japanese, but more Tokyo office workers.

It's not getting any easier. Condolences.

[Anonymous]

Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

Your DC may be "just being themselves" but what they are is mucho impressive, all the more so because it's organic. Most young teens didn't have a single, very time consuming, community benefiting hobby.

The issue is when you feel forced to fake something like that.

[Anonymous]

Thank you for your useless statement of the obvious, OP. 🙄

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thank you for your useless statement of the obvious, OP. 🙄

You're most welcome. Next time, consider also criticizing my writing style and implying my kid is dumb for maximum effect.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Japan is shrinking. Greater Tokyo is growing.

South Korea is shrinking. Seoul is growing.

New York State is declining. New York City isn't growing because it doesn't build housing, but real estate prices show that pent up demand is enormous.

Similarly, the number of high school seniors in the U.S. is going to decline (the "demographic cliff").

This will make colleges overall easier to get into (if you're applying to the college equivalent of a split level in suburban Cleveland) but not if you're applying to a school like Yale (the college equivalent of a penthouse in Manhattan).

The population is shrinking in the developed world because people are getting savvier and more in control of their lives, relative to their parents and grandparents. People who are savvier and more in control of their lives want better things for themselves, and have a better idea of how to get them. This does not bode well if you want your kid to get into Harvard easily.

The pie will shrink due to closures of the weaker schools. Competition overall may stay the same or even decline slightly. But competition over the best spots will intensify. Fewer students, but more students willing to knife fight over that Ivy spot. Just like fewer Japanese, but more Tokyo office workers.

It's not getting any easier. Condolences.

Who cares. 99% of the happy successful people in this country did not go to Ivies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Japan is shrinking. Greater Tokyo is growing.

South Korea is shrinking. Seoul is growing.

New York State is declining. New York City isn't growing because it doesn't build housing, but real estate prices show that pent up demand is enormous.

Similarly, the number of high school seniors in the U.S. is going to decline (the "demographic cliff").

This will make colleges overall easier to get into (if you're applying to the college equivalent of a split level in suburban Cleveland) but not if you're applying to a school like Yale (the college equivalent of a penthouse in Manhattan).

The population is shrinking in the developed world because people are getting savvier and more in control of their lives, relative to their parents and grandparents. People who are savvier and more in control of their lives want better things for themselves, and have a better idea of how to get them. This does not bode well if you want your kid to get into Harvard easily.

The pie will shrink due to closures of the weaker schools. Competition overall may stay the same or even decline slightly. But competition over the best spots will intensify. Fewer students, but more students willing to knife fight over that Ivy spot. Just like fewer Japanese, but more Tokyo office workers.

It's not getting any easier. Condolences.

Who cares. 99% of the happy successful people in this country did not go to Ivies.

+1. And the more that smart kids go to other schools, the better for everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Japan is shrinking. Greater Tokyo is growing.

South Korea is shrinking. Seoul is growing.

New York State is declining. New York City isn't growing because it doesn't build housing, but real estate prices show that pent up demand is enormous.

Similarly, the number of high school seniors in the U.S. is going to decline (the "demographic cliff").

This will make colleges overall easier to get into (if you're applying to the college equivalent of a split level in suburban Cleveland) but not if you're applying to a school like Yale (the college equivalent of a penthouse in Manhattan).

The population is shrinking in the developed world because people are getting savvier and more in control of their lives, relative to their parents and grandparents. People who are savvier and more in control of their lives want better things for themselves, and have a better idea of how to get them. This does not bode well if you want your kid to get into Harvard easily.

The pie will shrink due to closures of the weaker schools. Competition overall may stay the same or even decline slightly. But competition over the best spots will intensify. Fewer students, but more students willing to knife fight over that Ivy spot. Just like fewer Japanese, but more Tokyo office workers.

It's not getting any easier. Condolences.

Who cares. 99% of the happy successful people in this country did not go to Ivies.

It probably also holds true for the better state flagships. Look forward to a future where UMW closes and UVA is even harder to get into.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thank you for your useless statement of the obvious, OP. 🙄

You're most welcome. Next time, consider also criticizing my writing style and implying my kid is dumb for maximum effect.

OK.

You don't have kids. Those aren't your kid's.

Your wife saw you were smart and was marrying a meal ticket.
Your wife has been cu@king you since your wedding day.
That's why your kids seem so must dumber than you yet oddly much better at sports than when you were a kid..
They're not actually your kids, but you've signed their birth certificate and legally they are yours.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thank you for your useless statement of the obvious, OP. 🙄

You're most welcome. Next time, consider also criticizing my writing style and implying my kid is dumb for maximum effect.

OK.

You don't have kids. Those aren't your kid's.

Your wife saw you were smart and was marrying a meal ticket.
Your wife has been cu@king you since your wedding day.
That's why your kids seem so must dumber than you yet oddly much better at sports than when you were a kid..
They're not actually your kids, but you've signed their birth certificate and legally they are yours.

Was that good?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thank you for your useless statement of the obvious, OP. 🙄

You're most welcome. Next time, consider also criticizing my writing style and implying my kid is dumb for maximum effect.

No it’s you who is dumb for thinking your post added anything useful to DCUM College.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

your kid sounds more packaged than the one playing two instruments. by this point everyone knows you are not supposed to play an instrument (especially violin or piano), much less two.

[Anonymous]

Good thing my kids just graduated from Ivies.

[Anonymous]

Thank you Captain obvious

[Anonymous]

So what?

That was a really grandiose way of saying something literally everyone already knows.

Here is s bit of news for you OP...no one needs an Ivy to be successful. No one.

Go back to your Real housewives and leave the adults alone.