Why the "Demographic Cliff" won't help your kid get into the Ivies

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Japan is shrinking. Greater Tokyo is growing.

South Korea is shrinking. Seoul is growing.

New York State is declining. New York City isn't growing because it doesn't build housing, but real estate prices show that pent up demand is enormous.

Similarly, the number of high school seniors in the U.S. is going to decline (the "demographic cliff").

This will make colleges overall easier to get into (if you're applying to the college equivalent of a split level in suburban Cleveland) but not if you're applying to a school like Yale (the college equivalent of a penthouse in Manhattan).

The population is shrinking in the developed world because people are getting savvier and more in control of their lives, relative to their parents and grandparents. People who are savvier and more in control of their lives want better things for themselves, and have a better idea of how to get them. This does not bode well if you want your kid to get into Harvard easily.

The pie will shrink due to closures of the weaker schools. Competition overall may stay the same or even decline slightly. But competition over the best spots will intensify. Fewer students, but more students willing to knife fight over that Ivy spot. Just like fewer Japanese, but more Tokyo office workers.

It's not getting any easier. Condolences.

Who cares. 99% of the happy successful people in this country did not go to Ivies.

It probably also holds true for the better state flagships. Look forward to a future where UMW closes and UVA is even harder to get into.

Those kids weren’t going to UVA. It won’t make it harder for the kids with the stats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Good thing my kids just graduated from Ivies.

Mine is at one now and certainly wasn’t packaged. The Ivies weren’t a goal. He decided to apply December of Senior year.

[Anonymous]

OMG the first post is someone whose kid trains guide dogs? WTeverlovingH?

Nobody can compete with that. Mic drop.

[Anonymous]

Most kids *are* going to the college equivalent of a split-level in Cleveland so thanks, OP, for the reassurance that the demographic cliff will help those folks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

How will he be able to continue the dog work at boarding school?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

How will he be able to continue the dog work at boarding school?

Heh... it's a totally organic interest calculated to get him into a selective boarding school where he will develop another totally organic interest without ever giving one thought to Harvard. Meanwhile the mom of the surf boy will continue to rant against some imaginaryManhattan kid "playing two instruments" as if they are pursuing some convoluted ploy to an elite college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

How will he be able to continue the dog work at boarding school?

Who trains and takes care of the puppies when he’s at school now? Assuming it’s a family affair-and a very nice one! Not really any more time consuming than a travel sport, performing arts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

How will he be able to continue the dog work at boarding school?

Who trains and takes care of the puppies when he’s at school now? Assuming it’s a family affair-and a very nice one! Not really any more time consuming than a travel sport, performing arts.

But much easier to fake

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

lol at this humble brag about a 13 year organically deciding to train guide dogs. Is this satire?

[Anonymous]

OP - ignore the nasty trolls. Missing from your interesting post is the fact that huge numbers of full pay international students want to study here. Colleges will just admit more international students to meet their operating budgets and then get to say " look how wonderful we are! We've increased the number of international students! more diversity!". And the middle and upper classes will stop spending $93k a year and increasingly go public.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

lol at this humble brag about a 13 year organically deciding to train guide dogs. Is this satire?

The kid liked puppies so the parens gently guided him toward a resume-building activity. Well while bemoaning "already packaged" kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

Serious question. Why do you want to take a sweet authentic kid like that and send him to boarding school full of packaged, overly competitive try-hards?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Knife fight?

I wonder if it will become easier for a brief period if there is backlash to the extreme over packaging of applicants. That WSJ article has seriously got to get AOs wondering if they need to change tack.

Not college… but my child is currently applying to extremely selective boarding schools. We will need partial aid so they know we are middle/upper middle class.

The AOs have told us how lovely and authentic our kid’s EC list is. Because most of the kids applying are ALREADY packaged. And they are only 13. My son loves animals and raises and partially trains Guide Dog puppies. It is hugely time consuming. But he loves it. And he has cultivated tremendous compassion for people with disability as a result. It forces him to put himself in their place. He is a terrific student, but didn’t bother with a bunch of time sucking competitions because of his work with the dogs. And he likes surfing.

Will he lose out to some kid from Manhattan who has been playing two instruments since birth and competes in every conceivable academic competition? Maybe. But maybe not. And I would argue that just being yourself is, in fact, “easier”.

I agree with you that more people want the same desirable thing. But I also think there might be a loosening of how to access it. Which makes it more of a lottery for all, not just a lottery for the few.

Not yet clear to me what to make of the cliff. Feels more like a small, gentle drop. But I do think we are near fever pitch in a multitude of ways. And something very well might shake out.

Serious question. Why do you want to take a sweet authentic kid like that and send him to boarding school full of packaged, overly competitive try-hards?

because per PP, it is "extremely selective", likely a pipeline to ivies - well known to be all about puppies!

[Anonymous]

I appreciated the post. There are definitely folks out there who believe the cliff means their kids will have a good shot at Princeton.