AMOC could collapse in the 2030s

[Anonymous]

The Atlantic conveyor belt could collapse between 2037 and 2064, more likely before 2050. Or even earlier, due to disruptions caused by Greenland ice melt.

This is something I thought my children or grandchildren would have to live through. Now it seems it will happen in my lifetime.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing/index.html?sp_amp_linker=1*n30cgd*amp_id*dlRLd2RRM0F3U1ZxWTBtWHI4Sl9Wc1N1aWNad2dtZWJaUC1sRTl3S0dSTHRMYi1uck9yUzNfa1pxalo2R2FXbA..

[Anonymous]

"could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested"

Could and Suggested. In a newspaper article that was written by a non-scientist who is filling space and begging people to read their article

I wouldn't worry. Itis possible. It is also possible that there if a nuclear-type weapon launched from a galaxy far, far away that will land tomorrow.

[Anonymous]

There is still the Pacific oscillation (ENSO).

Models are not always correct. Climate is complex.

Whatever changes there are, you would think would not happen overnight. We have to be able to adapt to whatever happens.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested"

Could and Suggested. In a newspaper article that was written by a non-scientist who is filling space and begging people to read their article

I wouldn't worry. Itis possible. It is also possible that there if a nuclear-type weapon launched from a galaxy far, far away that will land tomorrow.

In a newspaper article that contains a link to the actual paper, which is not yet published but has been peer reviewed. From the paper: "The mean AMOC tipping time estimate from ORAS5 is year 2050 and is robust to varying CPend (Figure 4a). The earliest year (mean 10% percentile level) for a potential AMOC collapse is 2037 and the latest year (mean 90% percentile level) is 2064. The average probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is 59% with a standard deviation of 17% for ORAS5 (cf. Figure 4b)."

Now, please provide a link to a paper about the probability of nuclear weapons being launched from intragalactic space produced by scientists with similar credentials.*

* Prof. dr. ir. H.A. (Henk) Dijkstra Professor of physics, marine and atmospheric research, and physical oceanography, also chair of dynamic oceanography--not to mention Utrecht University is in the Netherlands, which has been actively involved with the ocean and land reclamation since the 1300s
*Dr. R.M. (René) van Westen PhD candidate in same areas, also at Utrecht University
*E.J.V. (Emma) Smolders, also PhD candidate in same areas, also at Utrecht University

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is still the Pacific oscillation (ENSO).

Models are not always correct. Climate is complex.

Whatever changes there are, you would think would not happen overnight. We have to be able to adapt to whatever happens.

First I ever heard about this, believe it or not, was in 1980. On an ABC (pretty sure, there were only three networks we could watch on the farm) weekly news documentary (the kind of program that no longer exists).

True, not happening overnight. But do you have any sense of what even small changes can do to disrupt agricultural production and, hence, food supplies? For example, in the spring of 2022 the US winter wheat crop was down 36%, worst in 20 years. Suc events can be leveraged--good spring wheat crop, last year's or next year's crop compensates. But if we have successive impacts on crops for several years in a row, we are in trouble. A great deal of political upheaval in the past 20-30 years is directly related to conditions impacting agriculture in specific reasons (Syria had a decade or so of drought in the early 2000's, with a massive shift of the population from rural to urban areas and not enough jobs to absorb that in-migration. And it's just one example.)

What happens when year after year, home energy requirements are persistently 10% or more than established supplies? Think your heating and cooling costs won't go up and up along with the groceries? Think you can just put on a sweater or turn on the AC and NBD?

[Anonymous]

Hypothetically, where would I wish I owned a home if the AMOC does collapse?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested"

Could and Suggested. In a newspaper article that was written by a non-scientist who is filling space and begging people to read their article

I wouldn't worry. Itis possible. It is also possible that there if a nuclear-type weapon launched from a galaxy far, far away that will land tomorrow.

don't look up, amirite?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Atlantic conveyor belt could collapse between 2037 and 2064, more likely before 2050. Or even earlier, due to disruptions caused by Greenland ice melt.

This is something I thought my children or grandchildren would have to live through. Now it seems it will happen in my lifetime.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing/index.html?sp_amp_linker=1*n30cgd*amp_id*dlRLd2RRM0F3U1ZxWTBtWHI4Sl9Wc1N1aWNad2dtZWJaUC1sRTl3S0dSTHRMYi1uck9yUzNfa1pxalo2R2FXbA..

Yes, which will start the cycle for the next ice age.

[Anonymous]

Another study finding a date of AMOC collapse of 2057, using a different method and different measurements. The range of collapse is is 2025 to 2095.

https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I wouldn't worry. Itis possible. It is also possible that there if a nuclear-type weapon launched from a galaxy far, far away that will land tomorrow.

NASA scientist here - you’re not wrong about reading articles about scientific predictions with a healthy objectivity. Public articles often don’t distinguish between something that’s a 50% likelihood and something that’s a 0.5% likelihood. But the chance of attack from space is as close to zero as can be.

[Anonymous]

This is so, so, so bad. I am so worried about food supplies in the second half of this century.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested"

Could and Suggested. In a newspaper article that was written by a non-scientist who is filling space and begging people to read their article

I wouldn't worry. Itis possible. It is also possible that there if a nuclear-type weapon launched from a galaxy far, far away that will land tomorrow.

In a newspaper article that contains a link to the actual paper, which is not yet published but has been peer reviewed. From the paper: "The mean AMOC tipping time estimate from ORAS5 is year 2050 and is robust to varying CPend (Figure 4a). The earliest year (mean 10% percentile level) for a potential AMOC collapse is 2037 and the latest year (mean 90% percentile level) is 2064. The average probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is 59% with a standard deviation of 17% for ORAS5 (cf. Figure 4b)."

Now, please provide a link to a paper about the probability of nuclear weapons being launched from intragalactic space produced by scientists with similar credentials.*

* Prof. dr. ir. H.A. (Henk) Dijkstra Professor of physics, marine and atmospheric research, and physical oceanography, also chair of dynamic oceanography--not to mention Utrecht University is in the Netherlands, which has been actively involved with the ocean and land reclamation since the 1300s
*Dr. R.M. (René) van Westen PhD candidate in same areas, also at Utrecht University
*E.J.V. (Emma) Smolders, also PhD candidate in same areas, also at Utrecht University

It’s so depressing. Any chance we have to avert it has been destroyed by MAGA and their counterparts across the globe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested"

Could and Suggested. In a newspaper article that was written by a non-scientist who is filling space and begging people to read their article

I wouldn't worry. Itis possible. It is also possible that there if a nuclear-type weapon launched from a galaxy far, far away that will land tomorrow.

In a newspaper article that contains a link to the actual paper, which is not yet published but has been peer reviewed. From the paper: "The mean AMOC tipping time estimate from ORAS5 is year 2050 and is robust to varying CPend (Figure 4a). The earliest year (mean 10% percentile level) for a potential AMOC collapse is 2037 and the latest year (mean 90% percentile level) is 2064. The average probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is 59% with a standard deviation of 17% for ORAS5 (cf. Figure 4b)."

Now, please provide a link to a paper about the probability of nuclear weapons being launched from intragalactic space produced by scientists with similar credentials.*

* Prof. dr. ir. H.A. (Henk) Dijkstra Professor of physics, marine and atmospheric research, and physical oceanography, also chair of dynamic oceanography--not to mention Utrecht University is in the Netherlands, which has been actively involved with the ocean and land reclamation since the 1300s
*Dr. R.M. (René) van Westen PhD candidate in same areas, also at Utrecht University
*E.J.V. (Emma) Smolders, also PhD candidate in same areas, also at Utrecht University

It’s so depressing. Any chance we have to avert it has been destroyed by MAGA and their counterparts across the globe.

This was not caused by MAGA. It was set into motion by our forefathers.

I'm not sure what our grandparents, parents, ourselves, our children could have done, could do differently to change this. What do you see that could have happened some other way?

[Anonymous]

If you want true scientific info, please don’t go to mainstream media. Only look to peer reviewed publications.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Atlantic conveyor belt could collapse between 2037 and 2064, more likely before 2050. Or even earlier, due to disruptions caused by Greenland ice melt.

This is something I thought my children or grandchildren would have to live through. Now it seems it will happen in my lifetime.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing/index.html?sp_amp_linker=1*n30cgd*amp_id*dlRLd2RRM0F3U1ZxWTBtWHI4Sl9Wc1N1aWNad2dtZWJaUC1sRTl3S0dSTHRMYi1uck9yUzNfa1pxalo2R2FXbA..

Yes, which will start the cycle for the next ice age.

It would not be the same kind of ice age. We're not due for another ice age for another 29,000-88,000 years. I'd like to know what effect on climate they think the other oceans would have. You can't really look at one ocean without factoring in the others.