Biden’s latest Poll numbers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Republicans and the media have made so much of Biden's age and mental fragility that the bar is incredibly low for him. All Biden has to do is remain conscious at the first debates to "win."

+2
And the debates are when normal people start paying a little attention.

Agree but there’s never been a debate this early before.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

More info on state polls shifting here

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

He’s presently losing what? Polls? Who cares.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

The swing voters in the swing states that will decide the 2024 election are most likely going to do the same thing they did in 2020 which means another Biden victory. Your argument for Biden being a weak candidate with little chance of victory would have merit if his GOP opposition was a normal/viable candidate like the 2008 and 2012 GOP nominees were but Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Trump's clearly defined unfitness for office is the primary factor in what will decide the 2024 election. Biden's age and low approval rating are secondary stories that are basically irrelevant as long as Trump is his opponent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s done. Start to plan for a Trump presidency. Biden throw this one away with his Israel play.

I stated this several times back in nov/dec on the original 2000 pages of the gaza thread and i was told i was nuts and that “no one would be talking about gaza in 6 months”.

Well, here we are.

Biden sold himself to zionists and now america as we know it is over

Immigration. Economy. Crime.

forgot Education

Immigration. Economy. Crime. Education.

The federal govt has little impact on Education, it’s a state and local
Issue.

Actually, there are many federal rules, regulations, laws, and requirements regarding special education, 504 plans, recent immigrants, provision of second language services, Title I schools, discrimination, etc.

Is 504 responsible for the epidemic of violence in public school classrooms?
Kids throwing chairs and desks and nothing can be done to remove the perps???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

The swing voters in the swing states that will decide the 2024 election are most likely going to do the same thing they did in 2020 which means another Biden victory. Your argument for Biden being a weak candidate with little chance of victory would have merit if his GOP opposition was a normal/viable candidate like the 2008 and 2012 GOP nominees were but Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Trump's clearly defined unfitness for office is the primary factor in what will decide the 2024 election. Biden's age and low approval rating are secondary stories that are basically irrelevant as long as Trump is his opponent.

McCain and Romney are no longer considered part of the GOP. The Party has moved further to the crazy (won't even call it the right of conservative, because it isn't)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

The swing voters in the swing states that will decide the 2024 election are most likely going to do the same thing they did in 2020 which means another Biden victory. Your argument for Biden being a weak candidate with little chance of victory would have merit if his GOP opposition was a normal/viable candidate like the 2008 and 2012 GOP nominees were but Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Trump's clearly defined unfitness for office is the primary factor in what will decide the 2024 election. Biden's age and low approval rating are secondary stories that are basically irrelevant as long as Trump is his opponent.

McCain and Romney are no longer considered part of the GOP. The Party has moved further to the crazy (won't even call it the right of conservative, because it isn't)

Everyone knows those two were RINOS, not Republicans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

The swing voters in the swing states that will decide the 2024 election are most likely going to do the same thing they did in 2020 which means another Biden victory. Your argument for Biden being a weak candidate with little chance of victory would have merit if his GOP opposition was a normal/viable candidate like the 2008 and 2012 GOP nominees were but Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Trump's clearly defined unfitness for office is the primary factor in what will decide the 2024 election. Biden's age and low approval rating are secondary stories that are basically irrelevant as long as Trump is his opponent.

McCain and Romney are no longer considered part of the GOP. The Party has moved further to the crazy (won't even call it the right of conservative, because it isn't)

Everyone knows those two were RINOS, not Republicans.

??? Sarcasm?

[Anonymous]

Well they’ll get lower when the NDAA passes. They are intending to draft women now, and women in the US by and large hate accountability.

Now they women need to start ponying up and making sacrifices for the country many will not want to vote for Biden and the democrats since this is their idea.

Frankly I think it’s great as women abound be drafted just like men are; otherwise we don’t she’s true equality . If my son has to put his life on the line because the warmongers in the WH want to start wars with Russia so should your daughters.

It looks like VA, PA and MI are in lay for Trump as well. Good news for the country

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

I’ll take “the worst” of the Ds over any of the Rs, especially DJT. The Ds are light years better than those batsht crazy Rs trying to force their religion on everyone.

Biden has been a great leader for our country. He’s not as magnetic as Obama but he’s doing what he needs to do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well they’ll get lower when the NDAA passes. They are intending to draft women now, and women in the US by and large hate accountability.

Now they women need to start ponying up and making sacrifices for the country many will not want to vote for Biden and the democrats since this is their idea.

Frankly I think it’s great as women abound be drafted just like men are; otherwise we don’t she’s true equality . If my son has to put his life on the line because the warmongers in the WH want to start wars with Russia so should your daughters.

It looks like VA, PA and MI are in lay for Trump as well. Good news for the country

???


The NDAA out of the House is a GOP bill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well they’ll get lower when the NDAA passes. They are intending to draft women now, and women in the US by and large hate accountability.

Now they women need to start ponying up and making sacrifices for the country many will not want to vote for Biden and the democrats since this is their idea.

Frankly I think it’s great as women abound be drafted just like men are; otherwise we don’t she’s true equality . If my son has to put his life on the line because the warmongers in the WH want to start wars with Russia so should your daughters.

It looks like VA, PA and MI are in lay for Trump as well. Good news for the country

Are you drunk or an immigrant? You don't English very well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

The swing voters in the swing states that will decide the 2024 election are most likely going to do the same thing they did in 2020 which means another Biden victory. Your argument for Biden being a weak candidate with little chance of victory would have merit if his GOP opposition was a normal/viable candidate like the 2008 and 2012 GOP nominees were but Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Trump's clearly defined unfitness for office is the primary factor in what will decide the 2024 election. Biden's age and low approval rating are secondary stories that are basically irrelevant as long as Trump is his opponent.

McCain and Romney are no longer considered part of the GOP. The Party has moved further to the crazy (won't even call it the right of conservative, because it isn't)

There is no constitutional law that mandates who our major political parties are or what the may call themselves by name. Let them fail. When was the last time we had a major party nominee that was well qualified and in the prime of their political career? uh duh bah guh... idiots

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

Oh, a new model. Yes, yes! I guess the previous one was depressing all the democrats.

Democrats have won or ourperformed every poll that has mattered since 2017.

No one is depressed.

Biden under performed in the 2020 election relative to polling data leading up to the election but he still won the necessary electoral votes by a comfortable margin because the GOP incumbent was a very weak candidate that independent/swing voters were willing to show up to vote out of office. Biden is now a very unpopular and elderly incumbent that in any normal election would have little chance of being re-elected but thanks to the moronic GOP's addiction to Trumpism, Biden should and will be our president until 2029. Yes, a large percentage of the GOP base will inexplicably show up to vote for Trump once again but for the same reasons they did in 2020, the sane and sensible independent/swing voters that will decide the 2024 election will not be duped into voting for the Trump madness like they did in 2016. Thank you swing voters not being fooled more than once.

Biden won in 2020 due to 100k votes across four swing states. All these swing states show consistent to even large leads for Trump. Trump wins those four states, he will win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if Biden racks up massive and even bigger majorities in California. It matters if he loses Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And right now he is.

This is an election where it is not wise to make predictions for this fall. But at this point Georgia is probably a loss for Biden and Nevada is now in play. All the others are within margin of error but Trump still persistently leads. And turnout will be key.

That's what matters. Biden is behind in thr swing states and all signs show to lackluster turnout and enthusiasm among critical demographics he needs to win. The swing state wins in 2020 were so small that just a tiny dip in turnout flips them to Trump.

And a tiny dip on Trump's side with the independents, Haley supporters, and abortion proponents, keeps them with Biden. There hasn't been an election result in two years that's been encouraging for the GOP. Trump supporters are putting FAR too much credence in these May/June polls.

I would say far too many Democrats continue to have a misplaced faith in Biden. He has no natural base. He's never been remotely successful nationally until Obama plucked him from obscurity. He's now very old and obviously declining. No one is voting for Biden. They are only voting against Trump. And that is a dangerous game to play in what will likely be a low turnout election that will invariably come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states - and Biden is presently losing all of them.

Democrats may have done well in recent elections, but I think they're being complacent at the presidential level. Biden is not a strong candidate. And there will be many who will vote split ticket. And many, many others who won't bother voting at all. This is a dismal election with both parties nominating their worst.

Tell me that you know nothing about national politics before 2016 without saying it.

Biden has a long and storied career of being one of the key members of the senate, FOR DECADES, who was able to negotiate across the aisle to get things done. He was a negotiator and one of the back-room politicians who could navigate an agreement where both sides were able to take away enough to claim victory and still get legislation passed. He spent 30+ years doing this before he became Obama's VP. He wasn't "plucked form obscurity". He was deliberately chosen because his ability to reach across the aisle and come back with handshake agreements was key for Obama to be able to get things done during his two terms.

Biden would have been president in 2016 had the party not kow-towed to the Clintons. Hillary Clinton thought she would be the heir apparent in 2008, but then Obama (the one who came from obscurity) managed to ignite the Democratic Party in the lead-up to and then at the DNC convention. He literally snatched the nomination from her hands. She was made Sec State as her consolation prize and it was felt that with several years as Sec State, she would then get the international policy chops that they felt would give her the White House in 2016. But she was a horribly flawed candidate who could barely hold onto a left leaning nation and lost an election that should have been a win. And had Biden been the candidate in 2016, Trump would never have ever made it to the White House.

Biden has a significant following, but most of them are centrists who fled from both parties and are registered Independents. Trump has only the MAGA following which is loud and proud, but not very numerous. Currently only about 32% of registered voters are Republican. While Trump can control 90+% of the Republicans, 30% of the electorate is not enough. He has a lot of anti-Biden votes, but not 20% of the total electorate. Biden has the majority of his 33% of Democrats, so it comes down to who has more of the Independent voters. Especially post-NYC trials, Biden really does have the majority of the Independent block. Not only that, but the Republicans have continually underestiated the power of the abortion issue. In 2022 and 2023, both times the Republicans said that they had the upper hand and polling supported them, they lost significant ground mainly over the abortion issue post Roe v Wade. And Biden is already plugging the issue in his ads. Most of the voters on the rolls are pretty tied between these two candidates, but as the last two elections have shown, the Democrats abortion rights platform has continually brought out significant numbers of normally non-registered or non-voting voters; voters who normally do not vote but are coming out to protect their rights. So you have had record numbers of 18-35 year old voters who want to protect their access to medical control of their families and you have record numbers of suburban women, who normally don't vote in huge numbers, who are coming out to protec their rights. Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia have all shown over the last two elections that this issue is important and is enough to bring voters out of the woodwork. Trump has his devoted following, but is not bringing out new voters.

Not only has Trump's conviction in NYC cost him (looking like 1-3% so far and it will grow over time, especially after July 11), but he still has a lot of other bad news on the horizon for him, both legal issues and political issues. The summer is going to be a slow and very gradual decline in the numbers for Trump. And the new voters who have not been voting before because abortion rights have not been a local issue for them, are still out there unaccounted for, until November.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

National polls don’t tell us anything when you get elected by the electoral college aka battleground states. Are we seeing the same changes in the independents in those states?

Interestingly 538 has Biden leading in a new model that splits the difference between battleground state polls (with Trump still leading) and what it terms “fundamentals.” We will see how this new methodology pans out.

More info on state polls shifting here

I do not believe accurate for GA.