Better odds for full pay applicants

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I read a while ago on this forum that some college counselors advise it's better to show your income and assets by filing the CSS Profile and FAFSA to "prove" that you are a full pay. It seems a bit crazy, but could be true?

It seems to me that not submitting a FAFSA is proof enough.

DP. The admission officers at schools that claim to be need-blind will not know whether FAFSA and the CSS Profile were filed, nor the checkbox in the application that asks if the student is applying for financial aid.

So if they are boxed out of this information, google/zillow it is.

No, they also use College Board's Landscape tool, which gives income level and property value down to the census tract.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People always say buy into a good school district because better school, better peer group. But it's also buying the assumptions about that applicant pool. Better to be the poorest family in a wealthy district than trying to be the diamond in the rough (who is actually relatively well off) in a poor district.

That doesn’t make any sense. No one’s assuming you’re full pay because of your zip code. Look at all the well-off families around here getting financial aid at their private high schools.

It does, because the college is playing the averages. Expectation value is much higher in a high income zip code, even if it's not across the board. Also, just because some Podunk private HS has false pricing, does not mean the family will qualify for anything special come college. Point is, if you want to use this to your advantage, be the poorer family living in the expensive zip code (and have a high stats kid), or be that scholarship kid at the top private.

Oh well. We’re a full pay, stealth wealth family living in a totally regular neighborhood. We’ll get by somehow.

We have an unusual name and my DH is a law firm partner. (If you google his first and last name, his firm bio page is the first hit.) I'd love to think this somehow gives us a leg up in admissions but I honestly just don't think it does.

Law firm partners generally not considered uber-wealthy or influential

Wasn't saying that at all. Was simply stating that it's quite obvious we are full pay.

If no SSN inputted they know full pay.

Also parents career title gives clues as to full pay or not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I read a while ago on this forum that some college counselors advise it's better to show your income and assets by filing the CSS Profile and FAFSA to "prove" that you are a full pay. It seems a bit crazy, but could be true?

It seems to me that not submitting a FAFSA is proof enough.

DP. The admission officers at schools that claim to be need-blind will not know whether FAFSA and the CSS Profile were filed, nor the checkbox in the application that asks if the student is applying for financial aid.

So if they are boxed out of this information, google/zillow it is.

No, they also use College Board's Landscape tool, which gives income level and property value down to the census tract.

I looked up our census tract data at the most granular level and it gave the median income as 82k. I'm not sure how helpful that is to colleges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People always say buy into a good school district because better school, better peer group. But it's also buying the assumptions about that applicant pool. Better to be the poorest family in a wealthy district than trying to be the diamond in the rough (who is actually relatively well off) in a poor district.

That doesn’t make any sense. No one’s assuming you’re full pay because of your zip code. Look at all the well-off families around here getting financial aid at their private high schools.

It does, because the college is playing the averages. Expectation value is much higher in a high income zip code, even if it's not across the board. Also, just because some Podunk private HS has false pricing, does not mean the family will qualify for anything special come college. Point is, if you want to use this to your advantage, be the poorer family living in the expensive zip code (and have a high stats kid), or be that scholarship kid at the top private.

Oh well. We’re a full pay, stealth wealth family living in a totally regular neighborhood. We’ll get by somehow.

We have an unusual name and my DH is a law firm partner. (If you google his first and last name, his firm bio page is the first hit.) I'd love to think this somehow gives us a leg up in admissions but I honestly just don't think it does.

Law firm partners generally not considered uber-wealthy or influential

Wasn't saying that at all. Was simply stating that it's quite obvious we are full pay.

If no SSN inputted they know full pay.

Also parents career title gives clues as to full pay or not.

I'm not sure about that. You could put "attorney." You could put "small business owner." You could put "retired." None of those would give much info.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People always say buy into a good school district because better school, better peer group. But it's also buying the assumptions about that applicant pool. Better to be the poorest family in a wealthy district than trying to be the diamond in the rough (who is actually relatively well off) in a poor district.

That doesn’t make any sense. No one’s assuming you’re full pay because of your zip code. Look at all the well-off families around here getting financial aid at their private high schools.

It does, because the college is playing the averages. Expectation value is much higher in a high income zip code, even if it's not across the board. Also, just because some Podunk private HS has false pricing, does not mean the family will qualify for anything special come college. Point is, if you want to use this to your advantage, be the poorer family living in the expensive zip code (and have a high stats kid), or be that scholarship kid at the top private.

Oh well. We’re a full pay, stealth wealth family living in a totally regular neighborhood. We’ll get by somehow.

We have an unusual name and my DH is a law firm partner. (If you google his first and last name, his firm bio page is the first hit.) I'd love to think this somehow gives us a leg up in admissions but I honestly just don't think it does.

Law firm partners generally not considered uber-wealthy or influential

Wasn't saying that at all. Was simply stating that it's quite obvious we are full pay.

If no SSN inputted they know full pay.

Also parents career title gives clues as to full pay or not.

I'm not sure about that. You could put "attorney." You could put "small business owner." You could put "retired." None of those would give much info.

Retired gives a huge clue - esp if it applies to both parents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People always say buy into a good school district because better school, better peer group. But it's also buying the assumptions about that applicant pool. Better to be the poorest family in a wealthy district than trying to be the diamond in the rough (who is actually relatively well off) in a poor district.

That doesn’t make any sense. No one’s assuming you’re full pay because of your zip code. Look at all the well-off families around here getting financial aid at their private high schools.

It does, because the college is playing the averages. Expectation value is much higher in a high income zip code, even if it's not across the board. Also, just because some Podunk private HS has false pricing, does not mean the family will qualify for anything special come college. Point is, if you want to use this to your advantage, be the poorer family living in the expensive zip code (and have a high stats kid), or be that scholarship kid at the top private.

Oh well. We’re a full pay, stealth wealth family living in a totally regular neighborhood. We’ll get by somehow.

We have an unusual name and my DH is a law firm partner. (If you google his first and last name, his firm bio page is the first hit.) I'd love to think this somehow gives us a leg up in admissions but I honestly just don't think it does.

Law firm partners generally not considered uber-wealthy or influential

Wasn't saying that at all. Was simply stating that it's quite obvious we are full pay.

If no SSN inputted they know full pay.

Also parents career title gives clues as to full pay or not.

I'm not sure about that. You could put "attorney." You could put "small business owner." You could put "retired." None of those would give much info.

Retired gives a huge clue - esp if it applies to both parents.

Yes. I put “Retired” and former Wall Street firm/ title in parentheses ….
In at many reaches this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People always say buy into a good school district because better school, better peer group. But it's also buying the assumptions about that applicant pool. Better to be the poorest family in a wealthy district than trying to be the diamond in the rough (who is actually relatively well off) in a poor district.

That doesn’t make any sense. No one’s assuming you’re full pay because of your zip code. Look at all the well-off families around here getting financial aid at their private high schools.

It does, because the college is playing the averages. Expectation value is much higher in a high income zip code, even if it's not across the board. Also, just because some Podunk private HS has false pricing, does not mean the family will qualify for anything special come college. Point is, if you want to use this to your advantage, be the poorer family living in the expensive zip code (and have a high stats kid), or be that scholarship kid at the top private.

Oh well. We’re a full pay, stealth wealth family living in a totally regular neighborhood. We’ll get by somehow.

We have an unusual name and my DH is a law firm partner. (If you google his first and last name, his firm bio page is the first hit.) I'd love to think this somehow gives us a leg up in admissions but I honestly just don't think it does.

Law firm partners generally not considered uber-wealthy or influential

Wasn't saying that at all. Was simply stating that it's quite obvious we are full pay.

If no SSN inputted they know full pay.

Also parents career title gives clues as to full pay or not.

I'm not sure about that. You could put "attorney." You could put "small business owner." You could put "retired." None of those would give much info.

Retired gives a huge clue - esp if it applies to both parents.

Yes. I put “Retired” and former Wall Street firm/ title in parentheses ….
In at many reaches this year.

On what? The common app is just a drop down menu that has retired as an option.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People always say buy into a good school district because better school, better peer group. But it's also buying the assumptions about that applicant pool. Better to be the poorest family in a wealthy district than trying to be the diamond in the rough (who is actually relatively well off) in a poor district.

That doesn’t make any sense. No one’s assuming you’re full pay because of your zip code. Look at all the well-off families around here getting financial aid at their private high schools.

It does, because the college is playing the averages. Expectation value is much higher in a high income zip code, even if it's not across the board. Also, just because some Podunk private HS has false pricing, does not mean the family will qualify for anything special come college. Point is, if you want to use this to your advantage, be the poorer family living in the expensive zip code (and have a high stats kid), or be that scholarship kid at the top private.

Oh well. We’re a full pay, stealth wealth family living in a totally regular neighborhood. We’ll get by somehow.

We have an unusual name and my DH is a law firm partner. (If you google his first and last name, his firm bio page is the first hit.) I'd love to think this somehow gives us a leg up in admissions but I honestly just don't think it does.

Law firm partners generally not considered uber-wealthy or influential

Wasn't saying that at all. Was simply stating that it's quite obvious we are full pay.

If no SSN inputted they know full pay.

Also parents career title gives clues as to full pay or not.

I'm not sure about that. You could put "attorney." You could put "small business owner." You could put "retired." None of those would give much info.

Retired gives a huge clue - esp if it applies to both parents.

Yes. I put “Retired” and former Wall Street firm/ title in parentheses ….
In at many reaches this year.

On what? The common app is just a drop down menu that has retired as an option.

DP. The box above retired, for occupation, has "other" as an option. When you click "other," you get a text box to write whatever you want.

[Anonymous]

The parent section also includes education, specifically graduate degrees and from where.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Asians are much wealthier than whites.

Wealthy Asians are a very small percentage of the pie and too many of those kids are over accomplished anyways so they might get less discrimination but it won't make big difference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People always say buy into a good school district because better school, better peer group. But it's also buying the assumptions about that applicant pool. Better to be the poorest family in a wealthy district than trying to be the diamond in the rough (who is actually relatively well off) in a poor district.

That doesn’t make any sense. No one’s assuming you’re full pay because of your zip code. Look at all the well-off families around here getting financial aid at their private high schools.

It does, because the college is playing the averages. Expectation value is much higher in a high income zip code, even if it's not across the board. Also, just because some Podunk private HS has false pricing, does not mean the family will qualify for anything special come college. Point is, if you want to use this to your advantage, be the poorer family living in the expensive zip code (and have a high stats kid), or be that scholarship kid at the top private.

Oh well. We’re a full pay, stealth wealth family living in a totally regular neighborhood. We’ll get by somehow.

We have an unusual name and my DH is a law firm partner. (If you google his first and last name, his firm bio page is the first hit.) I'd love to think this somehow gives us a leg up in admissions but I honestly just don't think it does.

Law firm partners generally not considered uber-wealthy or influential

Sure, but an equity partner in their 50s makes $2 million a year at most big firms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My theory is that need blind schools are need blind in that they don’t look at the applicant’s financial situation individually but they have software that uses statistical analysis to make sure there will be a sufficient percentage of full pay students. The software sets the parameters- pct from private school, pct from this county or that county, etc

What is your evidence for this theory?

AFAIK, not one of the many tell-all books written by adcoms has stated this is true.

NP. I agree with the PP entirely, that algorithms drive decisions but adcoms don't have a role in the algorithms and may not know much about them at all. This is the multi-billion-dollar enrollment management industry.

What is unclear is at what point in the process the algorithms are involved, front, back, all of it, etc., and what of this adcoms can see in Slate, for example. I do believe adcoms at need-blind schools read the apps need-blind. We know for a fact that schools use algorithms to calculate likelihood of yield and we know that most colleges use the Landscape tool from College Board, which includes a lot of data at the level of the applicant's census tract.

Top colleges arrive at roughly the same % of the class getting grants year after year. They must do this by algorithm in the aggregate, like PP was suggesting.

Here is one random articles on the enrollment management industry, though plenty more can be googled:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/revenue-and-rankings-inside-the-multibillion-dollar-industry-shaping-college-admissions-e9faaabf

Just google something like "higher ed yield algorithm enrollment management" and you'll start to get a sense of the industry. Why this matters is that, ultimately, yield algorithms do play a role in admission decisions, possibly in ways that adcoms are not paying attention to or aren't even aware of. It might boil down to some sort of yield score in Slate.

This goes way back, e.g. from 2015, Student Yield Maximization Using Genetic Algorithm on a Predictive Enrollment Neural Network Model, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283186686_Student_Yield_Maximization_Using_Genetic_Algorithm_on_a_Predictive_Enrollment_Neural_Network_Model. "The primary objective of this research is to develop a scholarship distribution model that enables academic enrollment offices to maximize student yield through efficient scholarship distribution. This paper presents the design of and tests a multi-layer feed-forward neural network (NN) in modeling the student yield factor. For this model inputs are assumed to be ACT score, GPA/class-rank, EFC, FAFSA, zip code and scholarship award amount and the single output is the student yield, where a one/zero system for accepting/declining the offer in attending the university is considered. The network is trained by applying the back error propagation algorithm, and is tested on holdout samples."

The available data here in 2025 are more detailed. It's all about the data.

I heard that colleges can see when (by date) you added them to your “list” in scoir and who else is on your list. Is this true??

Holy shit.
They explained affinity scores and the algo on the most recent YCBK….its what you’ve been saying about the Algo all along.

Engagement starting in 9th grade!!!!

“I had an institution tell me when someone started having an engagement with us in the 9th grade. Our yield for that kid is really, really high. Now, do you expect everybody to have engagement in 9th?

No. But what if your research shows the longer they've been engaged, the yield is higher? What if your research shows if they're spending a lot of time looking at how you deposit and housing and all these indications that indicate they're probably going to come because you can track your web traffic and you can see who's going to these portions that someone who's serious about you would tend to look at on the website.

Why not have someone build a model out to you that includes some of those factors? That just kind of seems inevitable to me that that kind of stuff is going on. It's not stuff that you can always, you can't reveal the secret sauce because, one, then people will just game it more and it will decrease its efficacy.”

From Your College Bound Kid | Admission Tips, Admission Trends & Admission Interviews: A Debate About Whether ACT/SAT Scores Should Be Mandatory, Apr 9, 2025

[Anonymous]

Where is the original post in the algo?
Honestly, this explains the 2 super-reaches my kid got into this cycle….

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My theory is that need blind schools are need blind in that they don’t look at the applicant’s financial situation individually but they have software that uses statistical analysis to make sure there will be a sufficient percentage of full pay students. The software sets the parameters- pct from private school, pct from this county or that county, etc

What is your evidence for this theory?

AFAIK, not one of the many tell-all books written by adcoms has stated this is true.

NP. I agree with the PP entirely, that algorithms drive decisions but adcoms don't have a role in the algorithms and may not know much about them at all. This is the multi-billion-dollar enrollment management industry.

What is unclear is at what point in the process the algorithms are involved, front, back, all of it, etc., and what of this adcoms can see in Slate, for example. I do believe adcoms at need-blind schools read the apps need-blind. We know for a fact that schools use algorithms to calculate likelihood of yield and we know that most colleges use the Landscape tool from College Board, which includes a lot of data at the level of the applicant's census tract.

Top colleges arrive at roughly the same % of the class getting grants year after year. They must do this by algorithm in the aggregate, like PP was suggesting.

Here is one random articles on the enrollment management industry, though plenty more can be googled:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/revenue-and-rankings-inside-the-multibillion-dollar-industry-shaping-college-admissions-e9faaabf

Just google something like "higher ed yield algorithm enrollment management" and you'll start to get a sense of the industry. Why this matters is that, ultimately, yield algorithms do play a role in admission decisions, possibly in ways that adcoms are not paying attention to or aren't even aware of. It might boil down to some sort of yield score in Slate.

This goes way back, e.g. from 2015, Student Yield Maximization Using Genetic Algorithm on a Predictive Enrollment Neural Network Model, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283186686_Student_Yield_Maximization_Using_Genetic_Algorithm_on_a_Predictive_Enrollment_Neural_Network_Model. "The primary objective of this research is to develop a scholarship distribution model that enables academic enrollment offices to maximize student yield through efficient scholarship distribution. This paper presents the design of and tests a multi-layer feed-forward neural network (NN) in modeling the student yield factor. For this model inputs are assumed to be ACT score, GPA/class-rank, EFC, FAFSA, zip code and scholarship award amount and the single output is the student yield, where a one/zero system for accepting/declining the offer in attending the university is considered. The network is trained by applying the back error propagation algorithm, and is tested on holdout samples."

The available data here in 2025 are more detailed. It's all about the data.

I heard that colleges can see when (by date) you added them to your “list” in scoir and who else is on your list. Is this true??

Holy shit.
They explained affinity scores and the algo on the most recent YCBK….its what you’ve been saying about the Algo all along.

Engagement starting in 9th grade!!!!

“I had an institution tell me when someone started having an engagement with us in the 9th grade. Our yield for that kid is really, really high. Now, do you expect everybody to have engagement in 9th?

No. But what if your research shows the longer they've been engaged, the yield is higher? What if your research shows if they're spending a lot of time looking at how you deposit and housing and all these indications that indicate they're probably going to come because you can track your web traffic and you can see who's going to these portions that someone who's serious about you would tend to look at on the website.

Why not have someone build a model out to you that includes some of those factors? That just kind of seems inevitable to me that that kind of stuff is going on. It's not stuff that you can always, you can't reveal the secret sauce because, one, then people will just game it more and it will decrease its efficacy.”

From Your College Bound Kid | Admission Tips, Admission Trends & Admission Interviews: A Debate About Whether ACT/SAT Scores Should Be Mandatory, Apr 9, 2025

There is a LOT built into algorithms by enrollment management consultants. A huge portion of the admission decision is data-driven, ultimately on likelihood of yield. Is it "fair"? No, though nothing about the process is "fair." Beyond fairness, I think there is too much lack of nuance, maybe because it can't be demonstrated by data.

It's frustrating, because my sense is that most regional AOs have no idea what an impact algorithms have. Personally, I think that's what makes decisions seem so random.

--have full pay, high stats kid on five waitlists, admitted to no targets or reaches. Applied to many last-minute and yes, would have attended any of them if admitted.

[Anonymous]

There is a page in Slate that shows a timeline of the student's clicks on the college's website. It allows the user to hover over any data point and see what page was viewed. I am guessing this goes by IP address, but I am not sure.

Little by little, an understanding of these proprietary algorithms will leak out, and you end up with DCUM parents clicking away on college websites, LOL.