How has Prigozhin (Russian oligarch with the mutiny last month) not fallen out of a window?
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Anonymous
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Can somebody who knows Russia better than me explain why they think Prigozhin, the guy who ran the Wagner Group and challenged Putin for a hot minute, is still Alive? Given the oligarchs falling out of windows and drinking poisoned tea, how is Putin suddenly thinking oh, Wagner group revolts for a weekend, now let bygones be bygones, we’re good here?
Suspicious. |
Anonymous
| He probably has some leverage. |
Anonymous
| Nobody here is going to really know what's going on. It speaks to the current instability/uncertainly of the 'behind the scenes' politics. Putin has been reduced to begging Africa to be friends and whining that Ukraine won't negotiate. |
Anonymous
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The rumor, probably false, is that he entered a nuclear weapons facility and picked up a little something.
But what the rumor shows is that he has leverage. What it is exactly, I don't know. But Putin is afraid, and it shows. |
Anonymous
| Most oligarchs were just rich so no big deal if they fell out a window. Prigozhin decided to show Putin why it's a bad idea to let oligarchs have private armies and now Putin is too weak to get rid of him. |
Anonymous
| Assume he has an army and bodyguards. |
Anonymous
| Bc Prigo never rebelled against Putin. |
Anonymous
| Has Prighozhin been seen alive since the attempted “coup”? |
Anonymous
He was seen at the African summit in St. Petersburg, which was a minor scandal in itself. |
Anonymous
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Here's my take. It's just a guess, but armchair QB'ing is what DCUMS is all about.
Wagner is a name and two months ago recruiting all across Russia, running everything from Troll Farms to merc groups in Africa, Syria, etc. and the best unit / hero of Bakhmut, which Russian VDV currently seems close to losing control of. But when Prigozhin's words and actions committed treason, no one protected Moscow. I believe that was a wake-up call for Putin. I don't think he knew he was that vulnerable and needs to circle his wagons. He's beefed up Rosgardia, forming combat forces under regional governors and is still ferreting out traitors who didn't protect Moscow. Just before the mutiny, Prigozhin released 32,000 Wagner troops. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/19/32000-russian-ex-convicts-return-home-after-fighting-wagnerr-fighting-wagner-chief-says-a81549 I believe it will also take for the FSB time to determine where they all are, to whom does their loyalties lie, and ensure Prigozhin can't mobilize them. Same goes for any Wagner that are still combatants. Wagner combatants are consolidating in Belarus, where they can be watched by an idle Army that won't detract from front-line troops in Ukraine. But the flip-side of that is Belarus has lots of weapons. I recall seeing news that Wagner so far has just been seen with trucks and APC's, but is there any doubt they could stage a coup in Belarus if they wanted to? I think Belarus is already politically dicey against Lukashenko, so it's not a stretch. However, this was the move that troubles me - a lot. "As part of the latest military rotation, Russia has withdrawn almost all its troops from Belarus" https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-service/ My hope is that Putin is not setting up Belarus to take the fall. Putin could claim his hands are clean, and it would wipe out a weak ally and Wagner all in one blow? |
Anonymous
| Because Putin still needs him. Prigozhin has no leverage. You can't kill the head of a private army like Wagner without a viable replacement. Prigozhin is trying to remain relevant by trying to make the case to Putin that he is the only one that can secure and control Russia's interests in Africa. He knows his days are numbered without it. |
Anonymous
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The meeting in St Petersburg I think reveals the treason talk was just talk.
I wonder if they will use Wagner to invade from Belarus. |
Anonymous
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He potentially just fell out of a plane
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Anonymous
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Wagner private jet 🛩️ crash 💥 in Tver
Prig on manifesto |
Anonymous
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Putin is such a chad
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