Reply to How has Prigozhin (Russian oligarch with the mutiny last month) not fallen out of a window?

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Reply to "How has Prigozhin (Russian oligarch with the mutiny last month) not fallen out of a window?"

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[quote=Anonymous]Here's my take.  It's just a guess, but armchair QB'ing is what DCUMS is all about.

Wagner is a name and two months ago recruiting all across Russia, running everything from Troll Farms to merc groups in Africa, Syria, etc. and the best unit / hero of Bakhmut, which Russian VDV currently seems close to losing control of.

But when Prigozhin's words and actions committed treason, no one protected Moscow.

I believe that was a wake-up call for Putin.  I don't think he knew he was that vulnerable and needs to circle his wagons.  He's beefed up Rosgardia, forming combat forces under regional governors and is still ferreting out traitors who didn't protect Moscow.

Just before the mutiny, Prigozhin released 32,000 Wagner troops.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/19/32000-russian-ex-convicts-return-home-after-fighting-wagnerr-fighting-wagner-chief-says-a81549

I believe it will also take for the FSB time to determine where they all are, to whom does their loyalties lie, and ensure Prigozhin can't mobilize them.

Same goes for any Wagner that are still combatants.  Wagner combatants are consolidating in Belarus, where they can be watched by an idle Army that won't detract from front-line troops in Ukraine.

But the flip-side of that is Belarus has lots of weapons.  I recall seeing news that Wagner so far has just been seen with trucks and APC's, but is there any doubt they could stage a coup in Belarus if they wanted to?  I think Belarus is already politically dicey against Lukashenko, so it's not a stretch.

However, this was the move that troubles me - a lot.

"As part of the latest military rotation, Russia has withdrawn almost all its troops from Belarus"
https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-service/

My hope is that Putin is not setting up Belarus to take the fall.   Putin could claim his hands are clean, and it would wipe out a weak ally and Wagner all in one blow?[/quote]

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