Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'd say the more proactive parents are leaving the county entirely.

Unless the county figures out what TRUE equity is and refuses to water down "rigor," which is a joke of a term these days, not even the W schools will function well.

peace out, folks!

I'm looking forward to curriculum 3.0. It will solve everything.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SES level in WJ and Woodward, both will fall due to adding 2000 students from DCC. Nothing against DCC because I live here, but it's a simple fact. Test scores will also fall, but life will go on. If you are afraid of these outcomes then pick a different HS cluster.

The phrase “W” schools will lose its meaning when WJ and Woodward fill up with lower performers from the DCC.

Wow the racists are out today

Are you sure you aren’t the racist one equating lower performers with race?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SES level in WJ and Woodward, both will fall due to adding 2000 students from DCC. Nothing against DCC because I live here, but it's a simple fact. Test scores will also fall, but life will go on. If you are afraid of these outcomes then pick a different HS cluster.

The phrase “W” schools will lose its meaning when WJ and Woodward fill up with lower performers from the DCC.

Wow the racists are out today

Are you sure you aren’t the racist one equating lower performers with race?

Not the PP, but which part of above post sounded racist to you? I was considering WJ as well and I looked at test scores of DCC schools nearby. Test scores are going to be down a lot for sure. It's a simple logic of looking at current scores and averaging them. Not sure where race comes in picture here.

[Anonymous]

I quoted the wrong post. I meant to only quote PP who found lower performance comment a racist comment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SES level in WJ and Woodward, both will fall due to adding 2000 students from DCC. Nothing against DCC because I live here, but it's a simple fact. Test scores will also fall, but life will go on. If you are afraid of these outcomes then pick a different HS cluster.

The phrase “W” schools will lose its meaning when WJ and Woodward fill up with lower performers from the DCC.

Wow the racists are out today

Are you sure you aren’t the racist one equating lower performers with race?

Fine line between realist and racist. That line is called L

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

I am sure Einstein is a fine school but as a Parkwood Resident who has a 400K mortgage on a 1m house that hasn't appreciated much, that we purchased with our own money and hardwork, the prospect of losing money on my house terrifies me.

Randolph Hills goes to Wheaton folks, which is part of the reason I used it as my example. Einstein is improving / popular and if KP got rezoned there it would improve even more. Wheaton is not likely to magically improve any time soon.

There are lots of housed zoned for Einstein that sell for $700k and South Kensington will always have a premium over North Kensington.

So Parkwood could fall but not catastrophic. Maybe your million home becomes $900k?

I can tell you know nothing about the current desirability of DCC high schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

I am sure Einstein is a fine school but as a Parkwood Resident who has a 400K mortgage on a 1m house that hasn't appreciated much, that we purchased with our own money and hardwork, the prospect of losing money on my house terrifies me.

Randolph Hills goes to Wheaton folks, which is part of the reason I used it as my example. Einstein is improving / popular and if KP got rezoned there it would improve even more. Wheaton is not likely to magically improve any time soon.

There are lots of housed zoned for Einstein that sell for $700k and South Kensington will always have a premium over North Kensington.

So Parkwood could fall but not catastrophic. Maybe your million home becomes $900k?

I can tell you know nothing about the current desirability of DCC high schools.

People have always moved to the DCC, it has a lot of population density. What type of people might be the point you’re glossing over. There will always be more people willing to pay a premium to avoid those types compared to accept a discount to live among them. The other variable is people who want the perfect house opposed to the perfect location, that is nothing new either.

If your point is that there is more people who that is all they can afford so there is lots of middling demand, I agree there too.

[Anonymous]

A house is most people's most significant investment. Losing 100K -50K in an overall market that have relatively flat appreciation -which occurs across the DMV (minus N Arlington and DC) once you go over 700K is a big deal. Its risky to buy into an area that will be rezoned with the outcome being lower performing schools.

Id' go further out into the Wootton cluster but not buy above 700-750K.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A house is most people's most significant investment. Losing 100K -50K in an overall market that have relatively flat appreciation -which occurs across the DMV (minus N Arlington and DC) once you go over 700K is a big deal. Its risky to buy into an area that will be rezoned with the outcome being lower performing schools.

Id' go further out into the Wootton cluster but not buy above 700-750K.

+1

Money doesn't grow on trees for most households. Losing 100K due to rezoning is a huge hit in a flat market for 700-800K house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A house is most people's most significant investment. Losing 100K -50K in an overall market that have relatively flat appreciation -which occurs across the DMV (minus N Arlington and DC) once you go over 700K is a big deal. Its risky to buy into an area that will be rezoned with the outcome being lower performing schools.

Id' go further out into the Wootton cluster but not buy above 700-750K.

Agree here. We looked and thought hard about WJ. We are now closing in Wootton next month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SES level in WJ and Woodward, both will fall due to adding 2000 students from DCC. Nothing against DCC because I live here, but it's a simple fact. Test scores will also fall, but life will go on. If you are afraid of these outcomes then pick a different HS cluster.

The phrase “W” schools will lose its meaning when WJ and Woodward fill up with lower performers from the DCC.

Wow the racists are out today

Are you sure you aren’t the racist one equating lower performers with race?

Not the PP, but which part of above post sounded racist to you? I was considering WJ as well and I looked at test scores of DCC schools nearby. Test scores are going to be down a lot for sure. It's a simple logic of looking at current scores and averaging them. Not sure where race comes in picture here.

The demographic cohorts of nearby schools perform more or less identically. The differences are linked to a cohort's SES. Perhaps, some people haven't thought this through but looking at a simple average that is demonstrably a proxy for a school's racial composition is basically the 21st century equivalent of redlining.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SES level in WJ and Woodward, both will fall due to adding 2000 students from DCC. Nothing against DCC because I live here, but it's a simple fact. Test scores will also fall, but life will go on. If you are afraid of these outcomes then pick a different HS cluster.

The phrase “W” schools will lose its meaning when WJ and Woodward fill up with lower performers from the DCC.

Wow the racists are out today

Are you sure you aren’t the racist one equating lower performers with race?

Not the PP, but which part of above post sounded racist to you? I was considering WJ as well and I looked at test scores of DCC schools nearby. Test scores are going to be down a lot for sure. It's a simple logic of looking at current scores and averaging them. Not sure where race comes in picture here.

Why would WJ test scores drop? WJ’s new boundaries would likely pull from their current boundary, Whitman, and BCC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SES level in WJ and Woodward, both will fall due to adding 2000 students from DCC. Nothing against DCC because I live here, but it's a simple fact. Test scores will also fall, but life will go on. If you are afraid of these outcomes then pick a different HS cluster.

The phrase “W” schools will lose its meaning when WJ and Woodward fill up with lower performers from the DCC.

Wow the racists are out today

Are you sure you aren’t the racist one equating lower performers with race?

Not the PP, but which part of above post sounded racist to you? I was considering WJ as well and I looked at test scores of DCC schools nearby. Test scores are going to be down a lot for sure. It's a simple logic of looking at current scores and averaging them. Not sure where race comes in picture here.

Why would WJ test scores drop? WJ’s new boundaries would likely pull from their current boundary, Whitman, and BCC.

They wouldn't. It's the usual fearmongering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SES level in WJ and Woodward, both will fall due to adding 2000 students from DCC. Nothing against DCC because I live here, but it's a simple fact. Test scores will also fall, but life will go on. If you are afraid of these outcomes then pick a different HS cluster.

The phrase “W” schools will lose its meaning when WJ and Woodward fill up with lower performers from the DCC.

Wow the racists are out today

Are you sure you aren’t the racist one equating lower performers with race?

Not the PP, but which part of above post sounded racist to you? I was considering WJ as well and I looked at test scores of DCC schools nearby. Test scores are going to be down a lot for sure. It's a simple logic of looking at current scores and averaging them. Not sure where race comes in picture here.

Why would WJ test scores drop? WJ’s new boundaries would likely pull from their current boundary, Whitman, and BCC.

They wouldn't. It's the usual fearmongering.

The point was that current WJ designated areas might be rezoned to within the Woodward boundary. Areas that stay within WJ would still be fine. Woodward is still going to be a good school though maybe in line with a school like Richard Montgomery. I wouldnt sweat it too much as its so hard to predict future boundaries and values are rising in the SE section of MoCo. That also being said it seems like MoCo has a much bigger issue that Fairfax in terms of the polarity between rich/poor and high/low performing schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A house is most people's most significant investment. Losing 100K -50K in an overall market that have relatively flat appreciation -which occurs across the DMV (minus N Arlington and DC) once you go over 700K is a big deal. Its risky to buy into an area that will be rezoned with the outcome being lower performing schools.

Id' go further out into the Wootton cluster but not buy above 700-750K.

So a better investment would be to move out to an area that's further from DC, with no Metro or MARC access, almost zero walkability and less economic development than a lot of the areas zoned for WJ? Bad idea.

No matter what the situation with schools, areas within walking distance to Pike and Rose, the White Flint Mall redevelopment and the Metro stations that fall within WJ's boundaries are going to better long-term investments than anything in the Wootton boundaries. The Wootton district is almost a text book example of a type of area that is increasingly growing out of favor with the kind of young couples (ie, millennials) that are buying homes in the area.