Nate Silver: "Go to a state school"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More reasons your kids should go your neighborhood public HS. It’s free and will get your kids same state colleges.

You're assuming that the "neighborhood public HS" will prepare your kids equally well to get top grades, once they're attending the state colleges.

Don’t worry. “State colleges” will prepare your kids as good as the “neighborhood public HS” for life.

I think you mean state colleges will prepare your kids as well as … not as good as. Grammar matters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The seething resentment makes me think of the cultural revolution.

Child is at an Ivy. Happy and thriving, as she has finally found her people. That’s all that really matters to us.

My HS BF admitted to HYPSM as well as Johns Hopkins, Michigan, etc. Ended up at one of the HYPSM due to landing a generous external scholarship. He was already taking college classes for half the school day starting junior year. In retrospect, I appreciate how much his parents grounded him in where he was and nipped any sentiment that these are "not my people." This wasn't easy. They were an immigrant East Asian professional family in a largely white and black blue collar (though well paid in many of the plants) town. We attended a school where less than half the graduating class was going to college and the overwhelming majority were studying at the local community college or regional university. This was decades ago. Not everyone was so nice to the "egg head." In their own way, they pushed him to excel yet also bloom where he was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only data he actually cites doesn’t really support his claim.

1. Public perception of higher education generally has slipped. This doesn’t support the claim that elite colleges are harmed more than state schools.

2. Polls that say private schools are not worth the cost of public. Again this doesn’t distinguish between “elite” and non elite public. Maybe people would say “yes, I wouldn’t pay for Elon but I think MIT is worth it”

3. Harvard perception. The division along political lines suggests that this is a political issue. Republicans voters have been told to hate those east coast liberal colleges and their students. But the average Republican voter isn’t hiring anyone. It would be more interesting to see a poll along socio economic and geographic lines. Do NYC republicans have the same view? That’s more relevant than people in Alabama.

Maybe the book will have more information but otherwise this seems like a whole lot of opinion and conjecture for now.

I'm a hiring manager who has definitely had opinions of elite colleges change over the last few years. Also a graduate of an elite college myself.

Should reread his post carefully instead of jumping to conclusions. Silver speaks to everything you raised.

Should understand that one or two people on DCUM doesn’t mean anything. That’s what Nate silver would tell you. I don’t think his data necessarily leads to his conclusions.

What’s really changed over the last few years other than elite college graduate GOP politicians deciding that elite colleges were a problem?

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More reasons your kids should go your neighborhood public HS. It’s free and will get your kids same state colleges.

You're assuming that the "neighborhood public HS" will prepare your kids equally well to get top grades, once they're attending the state colleges.

They will if the student takes the best classes available and takes advantage of every opportunity offered to them. State colleges were meant to educate these students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can see people are upset because they have an investment, whether emotional, financial, or ideological, with the current modus operandi at most elite colleges so they are bitterly resistant to the changing realities surrounding elite higher education these days despite that Silver cites data showing significant shift in public perspectives on higher education and elite higher education.

This is what people thought of a freshly minted Harvard graduate in 1994: highly accomplished and brainy nerd.

This is what many people now think when they encounter a freshly minted Harvard graduate in 2024: Either a legacy admit from an extremely connected and / or wealthy family (nepotism) or a mollycoddled diversity admit benefiting from a system that rewards identity over merit. And both will bring the same increasingly annoying social justice warrior outlook largely divorced from reality.

Silver is not a right wing MAGAtard, he is a Democrat and sold his polling business to the NYT. But like a lot of very intelligent nerds, Silver doesn't shy away from frankness.

You are an idiot. The minority students at Harvard etc have near perfect test scores and/or grades. The average student now is miles ahead of the 1994 student in terms of academic indicators. Same with the wealthy kids; at the top schools everyone has the scores that's why they add other factors to select.

I agree. And with amount of applications they receive every year it’s not difficult to pick the best of the bunch and that includes students from inner city schools, rural schools, and suburbs.

People don’t want to believe all those tutors and extracurricular activities did not help their child reach the top. So they blame minority students and claim identity trumps merit. In other words, the bitter people can’t understand how many students out there were chosen on merit first, outside influences, minority status, economic opportunities are considered after it’s determined that the student has prepared to attend their school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The seething resentment makes me think of the cultural revolution.

Child is at an Ivy. Happy and thriving, as she has finally found her people. That’s all that really matters to us.

+1. Nailed it. The parents are their own DC's worst enemy. Parents: your kid knows if you are disappointed in them. Be okay with their choice, if it is their "fit" - "fit" is most important. Stop looking at what other families are doing. They are not thinking one iota about you.

[Anonymous]

^ I’d argue the opposite. Hyperselectivity actually dilutes the need to attend these colleges.

When the elite colleges were accepting 1/4 to 1/3 of applicants, I think the employers generally assumed there was legitimate, critical discernment going on in admissions, so they used the elite college admission as a lazy proxy for capabilities.

Now, everyone knows there are huge number of qualified applicants who get shut out, and who gets in to elite colleges is largely influenced by visceral feelings of the AOs and even more by chance. Therefore, it must be that the same kind of student who used to go to an elite college now goes elsewhere. Thus, they’ve broadened their searches. Is it still easier to get a job in consulting or banking from Penn or Princeton? Yes, if you’re already in college, sure. But if you’re still in HS or younger and that kind of career is your goal, given the exceptionally low probability of actually getting into Penn or Princeton, the better, safer bet is to try to get into a good but not hyper selective college and to do well there.

[Anonymous]

There are many good reasons to choose a state school. Nate Silver (yes I went to an elite school, but your kid should not) cheerleading for it is not one of them. In fact, it might be a tick against it. Dude needs to stay in his lane— especially since her wasn’t driving that well in his own and (538) to begin with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:people come in their 40s and decide (once it's apparent their kids can't get into the same schools they did), "those schools are so OVER"

meanwhile, those grads are more diverse than ever, more on FA, less privileged, have more work experience coming into college than a generation before, and (pre this TO blip) scored higher on every metric.

plenty of us thought the Yalies (etc) from the class of 1995 were arrogant blowhards. but these kids? I'd take them every day over the previous model of an Ivy League grad

? most kids from those universities are not low income kids who worked their way through school.

About 11x more Pell-eligible kids now in the Ivy League than 15 years ago, let alone 30 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:safer bet is to try to get into a good but not hyper selective college and to do well there

How is it a "safer bet"? The competition is way more stiff, because in terms of sheer numbers there are more good students and you need to finish higher in the class than at the top schools (where the margin for error is usually much greater).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Every Single Person On This Board Would Jump At Harvard Over George Mason If Your Child Were Admitted And Could Afford It.

This entire post is just more white rage and post-hoc* justification.

* def.: after the fact

I think Silver is talking more about ROI than about people's individual preferences.

Nobody is going to get admitted to both Harvard and George Mason AND have to pay the same price to attend each one.

Most would pay less at Harvard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^ I’d argue the opposite. Hyperselectivity actually dilutes the need to attend these colleges.

When the elite colleges were accepting 1/4 to 1/3 of applicants, I think the employers generally assumed there was legitimate, critical discernment going on in admissions, so they used the elite college admission as a lazy proxy for capabilities.

Now, everyone knows there are huge number of qualified applicants who get shut out, and who gets in to elite colleges is largely influenced by visceral feelings of the AOs and even more by chance. Therefore, it must be that the same kind of student who used to go to an elite college now goes elsewhere. Thus, they’ve broadened their searches. Is it still easier to get a job in consulting or banking from Penn or Princeton? Yes, if you’re already in college, sure. But if you’re still in HS or younger and that kind of career is your goal, given the exceptionally low probability of actually getting into Penn or Princeton, the better, safer bet is to try to get into a good but not hyper selective college and to do well there.

Woah, you're going to trigger all the Ivy obsessed strivers with talk like this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:people come in their 40s and decide (once it's apparent their kids can't get into the same schools they did), "those schools are so OVER"

meanwhile, those grads are more diverse than ever, more on FA, less privileged, have more work experience coming into college than a generation before, and (pre this TO blip) scored higher on every metric.

plenty of us thought the Yalies (etc) from the class of 1995 were arrogant blowhards. but these kids? I'd take them every day over the previous model of an Ivy League grad

? most kids from those universities are not low income kids who worked their way through school.

About 11x more Pell-eligible kids now in the Ivy League than 15 years ago, let alone 30 years ago.

And correspondingly fewer UMC kids. You have to be either poor enough or rich enough to attend now

[Anonymous]

Nate Bronze…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can see people are upset because they have an investment, whether emotional, financial, or ideological, with the current modus operandi at most elite colleges so they are bitterly resistant to the changing realities surrounding elite higher education these days despite that Silver cites data showing significant shift in public perspectives on higher education and elite higher education.

This is what people thought of a freshly minted Harvard graduate in 1994: highly accomplished and brainy nerd.

This is what many people now think when they encounter a freshly minted Harvard graduate in 2024: Either a legacy admit from an extremely connected and / or wealthy family (nepotism) or a mollycoddled diversity admit benefiting from a system that rewards identity over merit. And both will bring the same increasingly annoying social justice warrior outlook largely divorced from reality.

Silver is not a right wing MAGAtard, he is a Democrat and sold his polling business to the NYT. But like a lot of very intelligent nerds, Silver doesn't shy away from frankness.

You are an idiot. The minority students at Harvard etc have near perfect test scores and/or grades. The average student now is miles ahead of the 1994 student in terms of academic indicators. Same with the wealthy kids; at the top schools everyone has the scores that's why they add other factors to select.

Runaway rrade inflation, recentered test scores, test optional. . .