New Hampshire predictions

[Anonymous]

The towns/counties in NH that broke for Haley are the highly educated ones. They didn’t break as much for her in most of them as the working class towns/counties broke for Trump. So, the non college educated voters win with Trump. Not a huge state margin though. Still, Haley doesn’t have much of a path to victory at this point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NYT calling for Trump. 52.5/46.6%

That’s a bit closer than I would have expected.

+1 And it’s a tough margin. If she wins or comes within five, she obviously goes on. If she loses by more than ten it’s an easy call to quit now. Between five and ten I really wonder what happens next.

She's made it pretty clear she's not dropping out. If she can keep the backbone and continue to be anti-Trump, she may not care if that means a bruising race that ultimately splits the electorate.

Haley is backed by the Koch network. She basically has unlimited money. They want her in this to collect delegates, in case something happens to Trump (death, hospitalization, prison).

[Anonymous]

Harley spent twice what Trump did on advertising in NH.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As the incumbent, if Trump doesn't win at least 70% of the vote from Republicans who bother to show up for the primary, he's seriously underperforming.

+1
“Donald Trump has a problem no matter what happens in New Hampshire tonight:

There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112

His base are not traditional Republicans, they’re a lot of angry, new voters who he’s managed to convince he’s the only one who can solve their problems.

His base is the new Republican Party. Of course “traditional Republicans” will all get behind Trump and claim it was because of Biden.

No they won't. They didn't before; they won't now.

Yes they did. Every single election republican has bent the knee. They weren’t always MAGA, they became it. And voters are the same. Sure, there a Never Trumpers but people like my cousin who don’t care about politics vote R because they still think GOP is gOoD fOr buSiNesS!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NYT calling for Trump. 52.5/46.6%

That’s a bit closer than I would have expected.

+1 And it’s a tough margin. If she wins or comes within five, she obviously goes on. If she loses by more than ten it’s an easy call to quit now. Between five and ten I really wonder what happens next.

Hate her politics but I admire her tenacity. Hope she stays in and makes him fight. All she needs is one too many hamburgers…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Quite the CNN exit poll. The question was, "Do you think Biden legitimately won in 2020?"

AMONG TRUMP VOTERS
Yes:                 17%
No:                  80%

AMONG HALEY VOTERS
Yes:                 83%
No:                  15%

- Kaitlan Collins

MAGAs are a lost cause.

+1 And Haley’s electability argument is a good one in a normal world. In the land of make believe that the Trumpers have constructed, of course he’s electable because he never lost.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hate Trump but Haley's not that great either. I liked her more in the beginning but between her slavery answer debacle and claiming US has never been a racist country, she totally lost me. Even if that were true, what a dumb thing to say right now. She's not the brightest. May be tough, better than the rest of the idiot candidates but not all that bright ultimately.. sigh.

I really hate Trump but I get why he's popular. Biden saying Trump sucks is not the way to a win folks. You can't be all over Biden just because you hate Trump. In the absence of someone worthwhile and good that you want to be POTUS, someone like Trump has a shot because there's so much pain, anger, problems in the US currently.

As a Democrat, I can say that things aren't horrible for me personally but they are for A LOT of people in one way or another. I understand the anger, I really do and making fun and calling Trump supporters fools and morons does not make them Biden supporters - ultimately, we're looking at Biden v Trump and Kennedy probably gets the last laugh!!!! It's a nightmare through and through really that one of these guys will end up leading the free world. Sigh..

And to all you people who yell about supporting Biden because Trump is a disaster..sorry I'm not doing that much work to support Biden who I don't believe in. I may not vote for Trump and maybe I'll vote for Biden but no way do I believe in him any more than I do Trump!

Cool story bro.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NYT calling for Trump. 52.5/46.6%

That’s a bit closer than I would have expected.

Think there might be some ketchup tossed at some point tonight, even with a win.

[Anonymous]

I don’t understand why many people consider the contest essentially “over” after two puny state primaries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harley spent twice what Trump did on advertising in NH.

Trump spends more on legal bills than he does on advertising.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hate Trump but Haley's not that great either. I liked her more in the beginning but between her slavery answer debacle and claiming US has never been a racist country, she totally lost me. Even if that were true, what a dumb thing to say right now. She's not the brightest. May be tough, better than the rest of the idiot candidates but not all that bright ultimately.. sigh.

I really hate Trump but I get why he's popular. Biden saying Trump sucks is not the way to a win folks. You can't be all over Biden just because you hate Trump. In the absence of someone worthwhile and good that you want to be POTUS, someone like Trump has a shot because there's so much pain, anger, problems in the US currently.

As a Democrat, I can say that things aren't horrible for me personally but they are for A LOT of people in one way or another. I understand the anger, I really do and making fun and calling Trump supporters fools and morons does not make them Biden supporters - ultimately, we're looking at Biden v Trump and Kennedy probably gets the last laugh!!!! It's a nightmare through and through really that one of these guys will end up leading the free world. Sigh..

And to all you people who yell about supporting Biden because Trump is a disaster..sorry I'm not doing that much work to support Biden who I don't believe in. I may not vote for Trump and maybe I'll vote for Biden but no way do I believe in him any more than I do Trump!

I guess you don't know much about Nikki Haley? She's been around a while, she is a known quantity. She knows the right thing, and sometimes she does it, but often she doesn't because she doesn't have a great backbone. But she did a reasonable job as a governor and did fine as a UN ambassador. She knows what principles are and she has them - if she becomes the president, maybe she'll act on them rather than cater to her instinct to pander that leads her astray so often.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t understand why many people consider the contest essentially “over” after two puny state primaries.

New Hampshire is the kingmaker. A voter in New Hampshire is worth 100,000 elsewhere. And thank god for that.

[Anonymous]

The Dean Phillips fans are pretty quiet this evening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t understand why many people consider the contest essentially “over” after two puny state primaries.

New Hampshire is the kingmaker. A voter in New Hampshire is worth 100,000 elsewhere. And thank god for that.

How so?

[Anonymous]

Serious question: can Nikki run as a third party candidate?