The issue you are missing is that the ASFS seat deficit is growing much faster than any other school in APS because of the Key lottery preference. And the key lottery is down on an east-west basis, so does not map nicely to the above distribution. ASFS will end up with about 300 overcapacity students; they can send some of the north rosslyn to Taylor, maybe, but Long Branch will be an attractive option if Fleet really has 200 extra seats -- its a much closer school and helps address the Key zone overcrowding. |
Fleet will open at capacity. |
They honestly have no clue how overcrowded asfs will or won’t be in the next five years. They can extrapolate how many people likely will go to key without the neighborhood preference, but they have exactly one data point to base that off of. The 300 extra kids will come in slowly as an extra class per year, so that’s even less reason to pre-emptively move people. I don’t want this thread to devolve like the other asfs thread(s), so let’s just agree to disagree if you have a different perspective. Please feel free to voice it, but let’s not argue about it |
How is it different from any other school boundary and capacity projections? ASFS zone is just another school zone now, with a student population and growth. Looking at those numbers is not hard -- and just like any zone can have some students go to option programs, like Long branch or Ashlawn or Henry-- but you have the base population and growth to deal with. And ASFS is off the charts now. |
They don’t know how many kids from the area around key will apply to the lottery because they have only had one lottery without neighborhood preference. Historically 30% of the area around key went to key by right. Theoretically that number will go down since they have to lottery now, but they don’t have much to base that projection of how much it goes down on.
If they are conservative, they may assume no one from around key goes there anymore, but then Taylor/asfs/Long Branch may end up empty. They should have waited another year and done it with reed because then they would have had more data to base projections on. Right now it’s a good guess, and you remember how well that worked out for McKinley. |