Who said there isn't a North-South divide?

[Anonymous]

Are you reading the ASFS thread- North Arlington is coming for Fleet. But hey, if nearly all of Henry is moved to Drew, Drew should be a great school!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Are you reading the ASFS thread- North Arlington is coming for Fleet. But hey, if nearly all of Henry is moved to Drew, Drew should be a great school!

That’s the way the math works out if you add up the seat shortages for all the schools listed for the fall redistricting. If Key doesn’t move Fleet needs to take a few hundred from Long Branch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are you reading the ASFS thread- North Arlington is coming for Fleet. But hey, if nearly all of Henry is moved to Drew, Drew should be a great school!

That’s the way the math works out if you add up the seat shortages for all the schools listed for the fall redistricting. If Key doesn’t move Fleet needs to take a few hundred from Long Branch.

So tell the SB that you support a neighborhood school at the Key location. Immersion can go to ATS, ATS to Nottingham once Reed comes online.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Are you reading the ASFS thread- North Arlington is coming for Fleet. But hey, if nearly all of Henry is moved to Drew, Drew should be a great school!

Too bad - this was a SOUTH arlington school overcrowding solution and took TWO working groups to get going. The north will just have to wait and endure some decisions they don't like for a change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are you reading the ASFS thread- North Arlington is coming for Fleet. But hey, if nearly all of Henry is moved to Drew, Drew should be a great school!

Too bad - this was a SOUTH arlington school overcrowding solution and took TWO working groups to get going. The north will just have to wait and endure some decisions they don't like for a change.

The seat shortages for the S Arlington schools listed add up to 450ish. Fleet will hold 725. What do you think is going to happen?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are you reading the ASFS thread- North Arlington is coming for Fleet. But hey, if nearly all of Henry is moved to Drew, Drew should be a great school!

Too bad - this was a SOUTH arlington school overcrowding solution and took TWO working groups to get going. The north will just have to wait and endure some decisions they don't like for a change.

The seat shortages for the S Arlington schools listed add up to 450ish. Fleet will hold 725. What do you think is going to happen?

All the kids from Ft Myer will go to H-B. It's doubtful that Long Branch will displace any of the families at Fleet who live north of Columbia Pike. The ones south of the Pike are going to Drew anyway.

[Anonymous]

You don’t know that. Unless you are staff then you have no idea what is going to happen or what the seat shortage is. N Arlington is not getting Fleet. Everyone is overcrowded and most will have trailers. It’s all wild speculation at this point. The only things anyone knows is that Henry PTA is advocating for all Henry moving to Fleet and ASFS key posters cannot let anything go and clearly do not see eye to eye.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You don’t know that. Unless you are staff then you have no idea what is going to happen or what the seat shortage is. N Arlington is not getting Fleet. Everyone is overcrowded and most will have trailers. It’s all wild speculation at this point. The only things anyone knows is that Henry PTA is advocating for all Henry moving to Fleet and ASFS key posters cannot let anything go and clearly do not see eye to eye.

You are correct. Since people want to lay claim to Fleet and assume they can push out the people who live next to it, I might as well throw out other theories. After all, the needs of North Arlington are not higher to the rest of the County, as others seem to think.

It was pretty clear earlier this year that all of the current Henry students would not be moving to Fleet. Just like most of Alcova Heights will stay at Barcroft.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You don’t know that. Unless you are staff then you have no idea what is going to happen or what the seat shortage is. N Arlington is not getting Fleet. Everyone is overcrowded and most will have trailers. It’s all wild speculation at this point. The only things anyone knows is that Henry PTA is advocating for all Henry moving to Fleet and ASFS key posters cannot let anything go and clearly do not see eye to eye.

Of course it's just speculation, but isn't that the point of an anonymous message board? Anyway, here are the permanent capacities (https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AFSAP-Decision-Points-FINAL-03-06-19.pdf page 19) and most recent Fall 2018 projected enrollment available from APS (https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Spring-Update-Projections-for-Fall-2018-19.pdf) for the schools that are supposed to be impacted this fall:

Capacity 2018 Enrollment Seat Overage(+)/Shortage (-)
ASFS 553 712 -159
Ashlawn 684 712 -28
Long Branch 533 626 -93
Taylor 659 666 -7
Total Shortage N Arlington -287

Abingdon 725 688 37
Barcroft 460 436 24
Drew 674 748 -74
Henry (Fleet) 463 693 -230
Hoffman Boston 566 546 20
Oakridge 674 816 -142
Randolph 484 485 -1
Total Shortage S Arlington -366


Assuming no option school is moved in this process, I doubt they are going to leave hundreds of seats worth of open capacity in the south and hundreds short in the north. Maybe they will, though. Again, just speculation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You don’t know that. Unless you are staff then you have no idea what is going to happen or what the seat shortage is. N Arlington is not getting Fleet. Everyone is overcrowded and most will have trailers. It’s all wild speculation at this point. The only things anyone knows is that Henry PTA is advocating for all Henry moving to Fleet and ASFS key posters cannot let anything go and clearly do not see eye to eye.

Of course it's just speculation, but isn't that the point of an anonymous message board? Anyway, here are the permanent capacities (https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AFSAP-Decision-Points-FINAL-03-06-19.pdf page 19) and most recent Fall 2018 projected enrollment available from APS (https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Spring-Update-Projections-for-Fall-2018-19.pdf) for the schools that are supposed to be impacted this fall:

Capacity 2018 Enrollment Seat Overage(+)/Shortage (-)
ASFS 553 712 -159
Ashlawn 684 712 -28
Long Branch 533 626 -93
Taylor 659 666 -7
Total Shortage N Arlington -287

Abingdon 725 688 37
Barcroft 460 436 24
Drew 674 748 -74
Henry (Fleet) 463 693 -230
Hoffman Boston 566 546 20
Oakridge 674 816 -142
Randolph 484 485 -1
Total Shortage S Arlington -366


Assuming no option school is moved in this process, I doubt they are going to leave hundreds of seats worth of open capacity in the south and hundreds short in the north. Maybe they will, though. Again, just speculation.

So even though S Arl has 100 more kids, it has open seats? I don't follow. The deficit is bigger in the south by these numbers.

Will this be a situation where the numbers get shuffled again when Reed opens?

[Anonymous]

I doubt they will zone kids away from Taylor and not replace them. The asfs threads are fueled by one or two posters from the neighborhood around asfs. Rosslyn is marginally closer to long branch than asfs, and long branch is much much closer to long branch than Taylor. Those posters like the argument that kids in Rosslyn can have a shorter bus ride to long branch than they currently do to asfs.
The thing though is they have to move 250 kids out of taylor this fall to fix asfs being not in its attendance zone. Are they going to move 250 kids out of taylor and not replace them, but instead move 200 kids from asfs into long branch as the other thread suggests? No. They could, but that would be like how they left wms empty the last time they did middle schools. Hopefully there would be public outcry.
They will likely move most kids back into Taylor to balance enrollment. There might be a few kids moved to long branch, but it would be on the order of 50-100 to bring asfs back to a reasonable level of overcrowding. Again we will see what happens, but you would hope they wouldn’t leave the school with the most capacity for trailers (Taylor) empty just because some people on the internet like the idea.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I doubt they will zone kids away from Taylor and not replace them. The asfs threads are fueled by one or two posters from the neighborhood around asfs. Rosslyn is marginally closer to long branch than asfs, and long branch is much much closer to long branch than Taylor. Those posters like the argument that kids in Rosslyn can have a shorter bus ride to long branch than they currently do to asfs.
The thing though is they have to move 250 kids out of taylor this fall to fix asfs being not in its attendance zone. Are they going to move 250 kids out of taylor and not replace them, but instead move 200 kids from asfs into long branch as the other thread suggests? No. They could, but that would be like how they left wms empty the last time they did middle schools. Hopefully there would be public outcry.
They will likely move most kids back into Taylor to balance enrollment. There might be a few kids moved to long branch, but it would be on the order of 50-100 to bring asfs back to a reasonable level of overcrowding. Again we will see what happens, but you would hope they wouldn’t leave the school with the most capacity for trailers (Taylor) empty just because some people on the internet like the idea.

Sorry meant Rosslyn is closer to long branch than Taylor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I doubt they will zone kids away from Taylor and not replace them. The asfs threads are fueled by one or two posters from the neighborhood around asfs. Rosslyn is marginally closer to long branch than asfs, and long branch is much much closer to long branch than Taylor. Those posters like the argument that kids in Rosslyn can have a shorter bus ride to long branch than they currently do to asfs.
The thing though is they have to move 250 kids out of taylor this fall to fix asfs being not in its attendance zone. Are they going to move 250 kids out of taylor and not replace them, but instead move 200 kids from asfs into long branch as the other thread suggests? No. They could, but that would be like how they left wms empty the last time they did middle schools. Hopefully there would be public outcry.
They will likely move most kids back into Taylor to balance enrollment. There might be a few kids moved to long branch, but it would be on the order of 50-100 to bring asfs back to a reasonable level of overcrowding. Again we will see what happens, but you would hope they wouldn’t leave the school with the most capacity for trailers (Taylor) empty just because some people on the internet like the idea.

This seems most likely to me, and do-able if the Long Branch units south of 50 go to Fleet since they are only a stones throw from Fleet. Might have to move the Ft. Myer kids too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You don’t know that. Unless you are staff then you have no idea what is going to happen or what the seat shortage is. N Arlington is not getting Fleet. Everyone is overcrowded and most will have trailers. It’s all wild speculation at this point. The only things anyone knows is that Henry PTA is advocating for all Henry moving to Fleet and ASFS key posters cannot let anything go and clearly do not see eye to eye.

Of course it's just speculation, but isn't that the point of an anonymous message board? Anyway, here are the permanent capacities (https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AFSAP-Decision-Points-FINAL-03-06-19.pdf page 19) and most recent Fall 2018 projected enrollment available from APS (https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Spring-Update-Projections-for-Fall-2018-19.pdf) for the schools that are supposed to be impacted this fall:

Capacity 2018 Enrollment Seat Overage(+)/Shortage (-)
ASFS 553 712 -159
Ashlawn 684 712 -28
Long Branch 533 626 -93
Taylor 659 666 -7
Total Shortage N Arlington -287

Abingdon 725 688 37
Barcroft 460 436 24
Drew 674 748 -74
Henry (Fleet) 463 693 -230
Hoffman Boston 566 546 20
Oakridge 674 816 -142
Randolph 484 485 -1
Total Shortage S Arlington -366


Assuming no option school is moved in this process, I doubt they are going to leave hundreds of seats worth of open capacity in the south and hundreds short in the north. Maybe they will, though. Again, just speculation.

So even though S Arl has 100 more kids, it has open seats? I don't follow. The deficit is bigger in the south by these numbers.

Will this be a situation where the numbers get shuffled again when Reed opens?

Above are the current estimated shortages for 2018. Fleet opens in 2019 and adds 752 seats to the county. If they only put kids from the S Arlington schools in Fleet, that would leave a net overage of 386 seat at the S Arlington schools (752-366) ignoring year to year population growth. Since ASFS isn't listed as a school to be included in the 2020 redraw for Reed, presumably they are going to try to fix the overcrowding this go around. Ergo, looks like Fleet is getting some kids from N Arlington. Again, just a guess based on numbers and schools involved. The other option is that they are going to move the immersion program from Key, but that looks really politically unlikely at this point.

[Anonymous]

Got it.

I motion to close this thread again!

We'll have to find something else to talk about!!