How much can a new runner improve?

[Anonymous]

DD started track/XC this year as a 9th grader. No prior experience. She wants to create some goals for herself, but doesn’t have any idea how much improvement can she expect to see in 4 years of HS.

She dropped several minutes on her 5K in the fall, but doesn’t have many times for winter track because so many meets were cancelled. Guessing her 1600m time is currently around 6 minutes, if that matters.

[Anonymous]

Depends on her starting point and effort. The slower the starting point the faster the improvement.

I remember going from 26 minutes to 20 minutes in two years of high school cross country but that’s more than average. That includes some backsliding over summer.

[Anonymous]

I always made small incremental goals based on my last race.

[Anonymous]

It hard to make goals without actually having run many races. Sounds like she needs to run spring track first and then make goals for her 10th grade season based on her performance.

[Anonymous]

Yes boo

[Anonymous]

You can absolutely improve a lot from freshman to senior year and beyond. A 6 minute mile is a great starting point for a freshman girl.

If yiu want to see how times changes as you age through high school, Google a top high school runner’s names and “Milesplit” and you will see their progression since high school.

Also the site “runcruit” has a calculator. There are other sites as well.

If she doesn’t do track or running year round, she should do other sports to maintain her physical fitness and cardio levels. She should also ask her coach for specific goals.

[Anonymous]

I think a lot of running depends on natural ability. I am watching a 9th grader on our HS team- who has never run before- qualify for states in every event they are entered into. She is fast and talented and it seems to be effortless.

A 6 minute mile is good. I think interval training can help make runners faster- so doing sprints during the runs and then returning to normal speed. Also weight lifting.

[Anonymous]

A lot.

They are called 'newbie gains'

What really is hard is going from intermediate to advanced.

But going from beginner to intermediate is pretty straightforward

[Anonymous]

Some so-called elite girls are faster in 9th than 12th. Puberty can be tough on female runners. The fastest runner right now in the 9th-grade cohort may not be the fastest in future years.

[Anonymous]

A very rough rule of thumb is that your running ability at any given point depends on your total amount of training over the past two years. Of course, you can improve a lot even in a few months, and definitely in a year, but to get close to potential it will take a few years for most runners. But 4 years should be plenty.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DD started track/XC this year as a 9th grader. No prior experience. She wants to create some goals for herself, but doesn’t have any idea how much improvement can she expect to see in 4 years of HS.

She dropped several minutes on her 5K in the fall, but doesn’t have many times for winter track because so many meets were cancelled. Guessing her 1600m time is currently around 6 minutes, if that matters.

Depends on too many unknown details. What were her XC times and how much practice? Any summer training?

6 min would be fairly solid for a 9th grade F again depending on training volume since 9/1. Basically the worse her coaching and training has been since 9/1, the better a 6 min mile is now. But, its pretty good period.

As noted, the trajectory for girls is hard to predict. Biology plays a big role. Sometimes an unhelpful role in girls while boys almost always improve with age. Just the way it is, but many girls *do* improve and either way its a great sport and she will make great friends and wonderful memories.

Goals should be training based...miles a week, miles over the summer, certain workouts complete, etc. Times will only drop to her potential with with proper preparation. Setting goals for races may lead to disappointment unless the hay has been put in the barn. Focus on the preparation and let the times fall where they fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think a lot of running depends on natural ability. I am watching a 9th grader on our HS team- who has never run before- qualify for states in every event they are entered into. She is fast and talented and it seems to be effortless.

A 6 minute mile is good. I think interval training can help make runners faster- so doing sprints during the runs and then returning to normal speed. Also weight lifting.

This is bull, XC and distance race has minimal to do with natural ability. There is that aspect but also the aspect of putting in the mileage and staying healthy. I coached a guy from a 5:03 to a 4:15 mile in 2 years because he put in the mileage... He went from 10-15 miles per week up to 50 miles per week by the time he was a senior.

I would tell you it is too early to know her development, without information like her weekly mileage is currently and what is the max when she is training. If her coach does not believe in mileage then she would have to get them by herself but if doubling up on workout for the day it gets tricky.

[Anonymous]

Lots of good perspectives so far. ITA about "newbie gains." I also agree about girls and puberty. Sometimes, 9th grade is as good as it gets.

There ARE things she can do to keep improving. Most important is injury prevention: Don't overtrain. Excellent shoes, always. Take a couple of true breaks every year. Good nutrition (do everything you can to prevent eating disorders). Good sleep.

If she's really good (like one of the best on her team), she can train with the boys.

"How She Did It" is a great book of capsule profiles of prominent female runners.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think a lot of running depends on natural ability. I am watching a 9th grader on our HS team- who has never run before- qualify for states in every event they are entered into. She is fast and talented and it seems to be effortless.

A 6 minute mile is good. I think interval training can help make runners faster- so doing sprints during the runs and then returning to normal speed. Also weight lifting.

This is bull, XC and distance race has minimal to do with natural ability. There is that aspect but also the aspect of putting in the mileage and staying healthy. I coached a guy from a 5:03 to a 4:15 mile in 2 years because he put in the mileage... He went from 10-15 miles per week up to 50 miles per week by the time he was a senior.

I would tell you it is too early to know her development, without information like her weekly mileage is currently and what is the max when she is training. If her coach does not believe in mileage then she would have to get them by herself but if doubling up on workout for the day it gets tricky.

Hate to break it to you, but he has a lot of natural talent. Nobody runs 415 simply by trying hard or having a qualified coach and doing the right training. Underlying genetics are required too.

[Anonymous]

Yeah the guy that starts at 5:03 has natural talent.