What are the Objectives of the U.S.-Israel War with Iran?

On Monday I reviewed several justifications that have been provided by the administration of cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump for launching its war — or as the administration prefers, "major combat operations" — against Iran. I found that none held up to scrutiny other than an explanation offered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that our hand had been forced by plans by Israel to attack Iran. Yesterday, I wrote about how the administration had seemingly united behind that explanation despite the obvious pitfalls of relying on such a justification. Late yesterday, the administration seems to have caught on to those problems and changed its tune. When Trump was asked whether Israel forced our hand, his response was "No. I might've forced their hand." I think all of us will be comforted to know that the U.S. President and Secretary of State don't agree on why we are fighting Iran. This is what we have come to expect from the clown show at the top of the U.S. government. Today I am going to review the stated goals of the war, such as they are, that have been outlined by the Trump administration.

Before going on, I want to discuss the apparent airstrike on the Minab school that killed around 180 people, most of them school girls. I have withheld comment on this incident until more facts were available. However, it has become increasingly clear that the destruction of the school was a result of an U.S. attack. The school in question was once a military facility that was converted to a school at least 10 years ago. While the building is about 660 yards from a military base, it has been walled off from the base since 2016. There is no indication that the school served any military function. Yesterday, Rubio was asked about the school and claimed not to know anything about it. Today, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was asked about the incident and said only that it was being investigated. It is almost certain that U.S. officials would have known almost immediately whether U.S. weapons were used to destroy the school. Any "investigation" is likely aimed at developing a cover story.

Two days ago, Hegseth proudly declared that in this conflict, there are "no stupid rules of engagement." One purpose of rules of engagement is to prevent this type of incident. It would be interesting to know whether the school was selected as a target by the artificial intelligence programs that the military is apparently utilizing now. That would turn out to be convenient for Hegseth as there would not be any personnel whom he might be pressured to discipline, something that he would be reluctant to do. At any rate, as you hear U.S. officials bragging about their triumphs in the war, keep in mind that well over 100 school girls also appear to have been killed by our weapons.

One criticism leveled at the Trump administration, including by me, is that officials not only can't explain why we got into this war, but that they are unable to say what we hope to accomplish by it. On Monday, the administration took steps to address its goals. Typically, it did so in a slipshod and ineffective manner. The administration provided its allies on Capitol Hill with a list of talking points regarding the goals of the conflict. In addition, a similar list, though more lengthy, was posted on X by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

The talking points document listed four goals:

1. Destroy their missiles, and raze their missile industry to the ground.
2. Annihilate their Navy.
3. Ensure the regime's terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces, and no longer use their IEDs or roadside bombs, which have gravely wounded and killed thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans.
4. Ensure that Iran can NEVER obtain a nuclear weapon.

The post on X included the additional statement that:

Preventing this radical regime and its terrorist leaders from threatening America and our core national security interests is a clear-eyed and necessary objective.

Most of these objectives are not measurable and, therefore, are simply judgement calls. This actually reveals the truth of the situation. This is not a war that was launched for clear reasons to achieve clear objectives. Rather, it was started by a neurologically challenged narcissist on a whim and it will likely end on a similar whim. To put it more clearly, the war started because Trump wanted it to and it will end when he decides that it should. Anything else is meaningless window dressing.

Note that the goals discuss Iran's missiles and missile industry, but say nothing about the country's drones which have been far more effective in the fighting. Who even cared about Iran's navy before someone added it to this list? Roadside bombs are generally made from scavenged parts and it will be impossible to prevent them from being produced. In the U.S., Brian J. Cole Jr. is accused of producing two bombs from items he procured from home improvement stores. How are U.S. bombers going to prevent that sort of thing?

More importantly, the goals say nothing about the future governing system of Iran. These are tactical, not strategic goals. There is no mention of freedom for the Iranian people. No desire for democracy. The Trump administration insists that it is not interested in regime change, while systematically destroying the regime, or nation-building. But leaving behind an anarchic and ungovernable nation in ruins is simply a recipe for disaster.

The bottom line is that we are not being led by serious people. We have a President who sees himself as a historic figure stamping his imprimatur on the world, but is almost completely detached from reality. A Secretary of State who is incompetent and well out of his depth. He might be qualified to run the Cuba desk in the State Department, but certainly not to lead the whole thing. Who can take anything Rubio has to say seriously when it might be contradicted by Trump the next day? Hegseth is the biggest disaster of the bunch. A former platoon leader and Fox News host, he now believes himself qualified to tell career soldiers how to do their jobs. In the fantasy of his mind, he is manning the walls of Jerusalem fighting the army of Saladin. He is an absurd figure whose insecurities about his masculinity are constantly on display during his daily press conferences. What must the rest of the world be thinking?

The Iranian strategy appears to be clear at this point. The Iranians are not fighting a military war, but rather an economic one. Iran is sending the expat communities that run the wealth-generating industries of the Gulf fleeing. The country is preventing the flow of petroleum from the Gulf, leading to skyrocketing oil prices that are already being reflected at gas pumps in the United States. Iran is destroying billion-dollar U.S. military facilities with low-cost drones. The Iranians know that they cannot defeat the U.S. and Israel militarily, but they can make the war too expensive for them to continue. The plan is to simply hold on and jack up the price until Trump looks at the stock and bond markets and decides to declare victory.

The luxury of not having clearly achievable goals is that it allows Trump to claim that they have been achieved whenever he wants. If he says that Iran's missile industry has been razed to the ground, who is going to argue? How do you even define "razed to the ground?" Does that mean that Iran would be incapable of producing a single missile or that it can't produce more than a certain number? The simple truth is that it means whatever Trump decides it means.

We are in an absurd but deadly serious situation. The most powerful military in history has been turned into the plaything of a band of arrested adolescents led by a demented mad king. A leader who knows no tactic beyond bullying, a defense secretary who demonstrates his manliness by killing people, and a Secretary of State who desperately wants to be taken seriously, but can't help making a fool of himself. All I can say is to hold on to your seats because this is going to be one hell of a ride. Where it will end, I don't think anybody knows.