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Wednesday's Most Active Threads
The topics with the most engagement yesterday included polls of the presidential race, a husband who doesn't complete tasks, President Joe Biden's address, and the value of an English Literature major.
Yesterday was another day dominated by presidential politics. The most active thread was the thread that I've already discussed about Vice President Kamala Harris running for president. After that was a thread titled, "Harris vs Trump poll numbers" which was posted in the "Political Discussion" forum. The original poster started the thread with an excerpt from a National Public Radio story discussing a new poll that it had conducted along with PBS and Marist. The results showed that former President, current cult leader, and convicted felon Donald Trump led Harris by a single point and in a five-way contest that included the minor candidates, Trump and Harris were tied. A significant change from previous polling was a large increase in the number of undecided voters which the original poster suggested was a good omen for Harris. Any polls at this time need to be taken with a grain of salt. While the latest polls were conducted after President Joe Biden withdrew as a candidate, they still covered days in which his replacement by Harris was not a sure thing. Moreover, she has not yet selected a running mate, a decision that will likely have an impact. Also, as the original poster points out, national polls are not all that significant. Of more importance are polls of battleground states. These caveats, along with the immense desire of some posters to engage in advocacy instead of analysis, leads posters to generally interpret the data according to their partisan perspectives. Some posters argue that polls are useless altogether and have been consistently wrong, something that is not actually true. Others see what they want to see in the data and interpret it thusly. One thing that is clear in the early polling — and explicitly stated in the excerpt included by the original poster — is that Harris has caused a reset of the election. She clearly has momentum and I believe it is beyond dispute that she has a much greater upside than either Trump or Biden. Whereas voter opinion about the older candidates was fairly well set, Harris has shaken things up. More importantly, there is enthusiasm for her among groups that had been luke warm, if not outright hostile, to Biden. A major topic of discussion in this thread was the importance of Harris' choice for Vice President. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was suggested repeatedly on the basis that he might help Harris carry the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. Others suggested that he would be just as helpful if he remained as governor. U.S. Senator Mark Kelly was similarly proposed based on his presumed ability to help carry his home state of Arizona. Because of the perceived importance of the VP selection, the thread devolved into a debate mostly about that topic. In addition, a number of posters are disappointed, either in Harris or the method by which she replaced Biden. These posters seem to show up in every thread and disrupt it with their off-topic rants. Polling results mean nothing to these folks because they have everything figured out already. But, for the rest of us, we will probably have to wait a bit longer for things to shake out and for the polls to provide more useful results.