Hillary ahead by only 4 pts -- how is this possible??!?!
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Anonymous
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After everything that has come out in the past week(s), the race is still close?
"Clinton leads Trump by 47-43 percent among likely voters, a slight edge given the survey’s four-percentage-point error margin." What needs to happen to open up that lead? Evidence of murder? https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-lead-in-aftermath-of-trump-tape/2016/10/15/c31969a4-9231-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1205am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory |
Anonymous
Sssshhh. You just gave away the Hillary campaign's November surprise..... |
Anonymous
| My theory: She is not out campaigning. She is coasting. (Or hiding.) |
Anonymous
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I'm not kidding - the prospect of a trump win makes me contemplate slitting my wrists.
Of course, these are national numbers. Not state by state, which is how the presidency is won. I would have to dig deeper as to why this poll shows 4 points and another shows 11, though. Something is off. |
jsteele
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Depends on the poll. She is up 11 in the NBC/WSJ poll:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/clinton-holds-11-point-national-lead-over-trump-nbc-wsj-n666986 And up 7 in the Fox poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/14/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-7-points.html |
Anonymous
No poll will be right until their reputation is riding on accuracy - that will be close to the election. Now consider that even if Hillary wins through electoral, if the popular vote is close, i.e. 53/47 or something similar, that means a whole hell of a lot of people feel strongly about the issues Trump promotes. |
Anonymous
| I don't understand it either. |
takoma
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| Each poll bases its pool of respondents on assumptions about the makeup of the eventual vote. I guess they have different assumptions. Or perhaps, since the confidence interval is generally at the 95% level, perhaps one of these polls is in the 5% that miss the mark. |
Anonymous
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fivethirtyeight, which averages and weights the polls, has her up about 6 or 7 points.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-with-three-weeks-to-go/ |
Anonymous
| I understand it- lots of people are f-ing stupid. |
Anonymous
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In mid-October, 2008, Gallup had Romney up 50% to Obama's 46% among likely voters.
So, yeah, maybe these polls are horseshit. |
Anonymous
hmmm, that's interesting, considering Romney was the nominee in 2012 |
Anonymous
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People put way too much stock in polls, IMO.
In just over 3 weeks, we’ll know the results. Be patient. |
Anonymous
Whoops! I meant 2012. http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx |
Anonymous
It'd be pretty funny if the media hate-fest backfired. 
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