W Coast drought questions

[Anonymous]

Seems bad out west with the water supply. What does it mean in near term? Worst case scenarios? People are still moving out there - is it more hype and consequences aren't as dire with back up contingencies if dams don't fill or are people just not really concerned but should be? Curious as we've always wanted to relo west post kids graduations. The housing out there does t seem to have taken a hit but the news seems focused on the water shortage concerns - would love to know the reality of expectations as we have many relatives in N CA and Vegas areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems bad out west with the water supply. What does it mean in near term? Worst case scenarios? People are still moving out there - is it more hype and consequences aren't as dire with back up contingencies if dams don't fill or are people just not really concerned but should be? Curious as we've always wanted to relo west post kids graduations. The housing out there does t seem to have taken a hit but the news seems focused on the water shortage concerns - would love to know the reality of expectations as we have many relatives in N CA and Vegas areas.

So this isn't a direct answer, but in short, I would expect it to get worse. Possibly much worse. Google and read some articles. There's going to be a fight between commercial/agriculture and the home user.

My parents are in an arid part of West Texas and a few years ago water prices skyrocketed b/c of the oil business. Lots of people put in wells of their own (just to water plants/yard - the water has so many naturally occurring minerals in it that you can't really drink it) but a lot of other people put in fake turf instead of grass.

I think places with acute use shortages will not allow grass. Las Vegas is already going down this route: https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wireStory/las-vegas-pushes-ban-ornamental-grass-77006404

[Anonymous]

We’re about 5 years out from retirement and we are seeking places that are cooler and have water and not coastal.

[Anonymous]

Nevada is a desert. Period.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems bad out west with the water supply. What does it mean in near term? Worst case scenarios? People are still moving out there - is it more hype and consequences aren't as dire with back up contingencies if dams don't fill or are people just not really concerned but should be? Curious as we've always wanted to relo west post kids graduations. The housing out there does t seem to have taken a hit but the news seems focused on the water shortage concerns - would love to know the reality of expectations as we have many relatives in N CA and Vegas areas.

So this isn't a direct answer, but in short, I would expect it to get worse. Possibly much worse. Google and read some articles. There's going to be a fight between commercial/agriculture and the home user.

My parents are in an arid part of West Texas and a few years ago water prices skyrocketed b/c of the oil business. Lots of people put in wells of their own (just to water plants/yard - the water has so many naturally occurring minerals in it that you can't really drink it) but a lot of other people put in fake turf instead of grass.

I think places with acute use shortages will not allow grass. Las Vegas is already going down this route: https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wireStory/las-vegas-pushes-ban-ornamental-grass-77006404

[Anonymous]

It's hard to say what the "near term" is because this is not a new issue. Most of the west is arid, with just a thin line of humid coastal areas. I grew up in the Bay Area (one of those more "humid" areas, nothing like here lol) and we were in a pretty serious drought most of the 80s. Like, you couldn't wash your car or play in sprinklers. So it's not new, and people keep moving there, and I guess scientifically it must be worse now ... but people's lived experiences in my hometown seem to be about what they were in the 80s. Lots of native plant gardens and chatting about the snow pack, but no other changes.

That's with regard to drought and water use. The huge fires and long fire season are new. IMO, fire will be a more immediate issue than water rationing.

The west has some really interesting options for environmentalist improvements -- solar power is amazingly effective there, there are wind power options, combustion-based heat is unnecessary in many places, and the job centers are more dispersed which can in theory lead to less driving even without telework. We're already seeing government moves in some of those areas, such as a ban on wood stoves in new construction, and mandating solar on new buildings; I assume at some point they'll have to address the nonsense of tech workers all commuting 2 hours to Mountainview. But none of that solves the water problem or the fire problem.

FWIW, I've chosen not to move my family back west because (among other things) there is too much strain on natural systems. I don't love everything about Virginia but I don't worry about watering the garden here, let alone getting caught in a wildfire.

[Anonymous]

Water has always been an issue in the West but it's worse now. In the near term, it's still livable. But in the next few decades, it might not be.

If you want to live there, go now. And be ready to leave, when necessary.

- grew up in the West, love the desert, but realistic

[Anonymous]

People should be more concerned than they are. Water is being diverted from northern to southern CA. Nestle is taking water they shouldn't. The western third of the US is turning into a desert. Fires will keep happening. People know it is bad, think about moving, but don't.

[Anonymous]

There will be a big crisis and there will be a sudden push to build desalination facilities. It will happen quickly.

[Anonymous]

Cities won’t be affected. They’ll stop growing almonds and lettuce.

[Anonymous]

It’s not as bad as it was a few years ago.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932017_California_drought

[Anonymous]

This is a fascinating subject to me as I grew up in the Bay Area and lived through many years of drought. My mother’s family were almond ranchers in Sonoma county.

Apparently the entire west was built up during an abnormally wet period, during which the forests grew as well. Now drought is reshaping the entire landscape.

When I was a child in the Bay Area the fruit and other farms were right up against the city and fresh produce was everywhere. Then the water and land became too valuable and the farmers sold props and water rights to developers.

Desalination is way too expensive to become a viable option for all but the wealthiest. Here is an article about the Santa Barbara de-sal plant, which can only afford to operate intermittently:
https://www.santabarbaraca.gov/gov/depts/pw/resources/system/sources/desalination/default.asp

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is a fascinating subject to me as I grew up in the Bay Area and lived through many years of drought. My mother’s family were almond ranchers in Sonoma county.

Apparently the entire west was built up during an abnormally wet period, during which the forests grew as well. Now drought is reshaping the entire landscape.

When I was a child in the Bay Area the fruit and other farms were right up against the city and fresh produce was everywhere. Then the water and land became too valuable and the farmers sold props and water rights to developers.

Desalination is way too expensive to become a viable option for all but the wealthiest. Here is an article about the Santa Barbara de-sal plant, which can only afford to operate intermittently:
https://www.santabarbaraca.gov/gov/depts/pw/resources/system/sources/desalination/default.asp

I wonder what the effect on crops will be. Think about how many almond products are out there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People should be more concerned than they are. Water is being diverted from northern to southern CA. Nestle is taking water they shouldn't. The western third of the US is turning into a desert. Fires will keep happening. People know it is bad, think about moving, but don't.

Doesn’t Southern CA get its water from the Colorado River? Which presents its own challenges, but I don’t think NorCal supplies water to southern Ca.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Cities won’t be affected. They’ll stop growing almonds and lettuce.

I can see CA banning the production of nutritionally useless iceberg.

But they won't ban cannabis production of course and Fox News will explode.