A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

"The 2020 U.S. presidential election is rapidly coming into view – and so is the electorate that will determine its outcome.

If these trends continue, it’s a good sign for Democrats; they have a long history of winning over younger voters and women by huge numbers, as well as having a strong hold on urban areas."

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/26/18516645/2018-midterms-voter-turnout-census

"While demographic changes unfold slowly, it’s already clear that the 2020 electorate will be unique in several ways. Non-whites will account for a third of eligible voters – their largest share ever – driven by long-term increases among certain groups, especially Hispanics. At the same time, one-in-ten eligible voters will be members of Generation Z, the Americans who will be between the ages 18 and 23 next year. That will occur as Millennials and all other older generations account for a smaller share of eligible voters than they did in 2016."

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach levels unmatched in over 100 years.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/2020-election-voter-turnout-could-be-record-breaking/591607/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach levels unmatched in over 100 years.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/2020-election-voter-turnout-could-be-record-breaking/591607/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Thanks PP, great article, and fascinating election in 2020...

"In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that around 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016. Likewise, Public Opinion Strategies, a leading Republican polling firm, recently forecast that the 2020 contest could produce a massive turnout that is also unprecedentedly diverse.

...

Unless and until Democrats can tip some of the potential Sun Belt battlegrounds, particularly Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, the party can’t reach 270 Electoral College votes without recapturing some of the Rust Belt states least affected by demographic change."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach levels unmatched in over 100 years.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/2020-election-voter-turnout-could-be-record-breaking/591607/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Thanks PP, great article, and fascinating election in 2020...

"In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that around 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016. Likewise, Public Opinion Strategies, a leading Republican polling firm, recently forecast that the 2020 contest could produce a massive turnout that is also unprecedentedly diverse.

...

Unless and until Democrats can tip some of the potential Sun Belt battlegrounds, particularly Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, the party can’t reach 270 Electoral College votes without recapturing some of the Rust Belt states least affected by demographic change."

The mid west came back to the dem fold in 2018 and now the conman has approval rate around 40% in PA,WI,MI and IA. AZ has already become dem in 2018 and is now all set to be purple state as is NC. The shocker is that TX is even mentioned as a competitive state. When was TX in the conversation in the past 40 years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach levels unmatched in over 100 years.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/2020-election-voter-turnout-could-be-record-breaking/591607/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Thanks PP, great article, and fascinating election in 2020...

"In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that around 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016. Likewise, Public Opinion Strategies, a leading Republican polling firm, recently forecast that the 2020 contest could produce a massive turnout that is also unprecedentedly diverse.

...

Unless and until Democrats can tip some of the potential Sun Belt battlegrounds, particularly Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, the party can’t reach 270 Electoral College votes without recapturing some of the Rust Belt states least affected by demographic change."

The mid west came back to the dem fold in 2018 and now the conman has approval rate around 40% in PA,WI,MI and IA. AZ has already become dem in 2018 and is now all set to be purple state as is NC. The shocker is that TX is even mentioned as a competitive state. When was TX in the conversation in the past 40 years?

Seriously! Times are a-changing.

[Anonymous]

Wow, even CNN acknowledges the obvious...


CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

"A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President's reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative.

The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose. Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll)."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Wow, even CNN acknowledges the obvious...


CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

"A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President's reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative.

The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose. Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll)."

A majority THINKING TRUMP may win is not the same as his Approval or IF THEY WOULD VOTE FOR HIM. A majority don't approve of him or say they would vote for him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Wow, even CNN acknowledges the obvious...


CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

"A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President's reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative.

The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose. Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll)."

A majority THINKING TRUMP may win is not the same as his Approval or IF THEY WOULD VOTE FOR HIM. A majority don't approve of him or say they would vote for him.

Very true.

And very irrelevant.

Hint: A rising share...

[Anonymous]

Joe Biden just can't beat Trump.

[Anonymous]

I think the candidate with the best chance against Trump is Eric Swalwell.

























Just kidding.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Wow, even CNN acknowledges the obvious...


CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

"A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President's reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative.

The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose. Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll)."

A majority THINKING TRUMP may win is not the same as his Approval or IF THEY WOULD VOTE FOR HIM. A majority don't approve of him or say they would vote for him.

Wishful thinking on your part. Remember those who keep their political views to themselves. Not everyone feels the need to broadcast who they'll vote for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Wow, even CNN acknowledges the obvious...


CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

"A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President's reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative.

The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose. Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll)."

A majority THINKING TRUMP may win is not the same as his Approval or IF THEY WOULD VOTE FOR HIM. A majority don't approve of him or say they would vote for him.

Wishful thinking on your part. Remember those who keep their political views to themselves. Not everyone feels the need to broadcast who they'll vote for.

Yeah right. Wishful thinking is on your part. 2018 blue wave election already have a big hint where 2020 is headed. Nothing has changed since then. When was TX, AZ,NC,Ga listed as competitive? Times they are a changing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Joe Biden just can't beat Trump.

Warren seems more substantial.

Why didn't she run in 2016?

[Anonymous]

Trump can’t lose. Have you seen the utter clown car that is the dem slate?
They have to have a liberal opinion pundit host their debate so they don’t get asked gotcha questions.
Donating to trump 2020, again, today.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump can’t lose. Have you seen the utter clown car that is the dem slate?
They have to have a liberal opinion pundit host their debate so they don’t get asked gotcha questions.
Donating to trump 2020, again, today.

That's a good point, let's see who moderates the debates and how.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump can’t lose. Have you seen the utter clown car that is the dem slate?
They have to have a liberal opinion pundit host their debate so they don’t get asked gotcha questions.
Donating to trump 2020, again, today.