Reply to A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.[/quote]

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.[/quote]

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24[/quote]

Still lower than 2016, right?[/quote]

"The 2020 U.S. presidential election is rapidly coming into view – and so is the electorate that will determine its outcome.

If these trends continue, it’s a good sign for Democrats; they have a long history of winning over younger voters and women by huge numbers, as well as having a strong hold on urban areas."

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/26/18516645/2018-midterms-voter-turnout-census

"While demographic changes unfold slowly, it’s already clear that the 2020 electorate will be unique in several ways. Non-whites will account for a third of eligible voters – their largest share ever – driven by long-term increases among certain groups, especially Hispanics. At the same time, one-in-ten eligible voters will be members of Generation Z,  the Americans who will be between the ages 18 and 23 next year. That will occur as Millennials and all other older generations account for a smaller share of eligible voters than they did in 2016."

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/[/quote]

Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach levels unmatched in over 100 years. 
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/2020-election-voter-turnout-could-be-record-breaking/591607/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics