Reply to Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?

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Reply to "Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Do you disagree and think that the pandemic is getting less dangerous? If so, are you actively monitoring epidemiology and drawing conclusions that are different from me?
Do you agree that the pandemic is getting more dangerous but think it only affects other people, not you / your loved ones?
Or do you agree that the pandemic is getting more dangerous even for you / your loved ones, but it's still worth the risk for the benefits of in-person 5 days school?

Here's why I think things are taking a turn towards the worse:

* the compilation of prediction models (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html) predicts 2700 - 9600 deaths a week. Yes, the highest prediction is still way lower than during the last surge (24000 deaths a week at its peak) but it's still higher than last August. More importantly, if you look at the underlying assumptions of these models, they aren't changing the level of transmission, beyond tying it to mobility of a population or weather. (https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md). However, there's a reasonable chance that transmission rates in 2021 are not going to be the way they were in 2020.

* we are finding out that several covid variants are more transmissible -- specifically, "UK" B.1.1.7 (59% - 74% more contagious) (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055) "South Africa" B.1.351 (50% more) (https://www.newscientist.com/definition/south-african-covid-19-variant/) and "Brazil" P.1 (200% more contagious) (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazilvariant/contagious-brazil-covid-19-variant-evades-immunity-scientists-warn-idUSKBN2AU22B).

* P.1 re-infects 25%-60% of people. Vaccines are much less effective against P.1 and B.1.351

* P.1 has been reported in 22 states, B.1.351 has been reported in 30 states, and B.1.1.7 is everywhere in the U.S. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html)

* Younger people are dying at much higher rates where P.1 is endemic - 3x case fatality rates for ages 20-29, 2x for 30-39, 40-49, 50-59. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.24.21254046v1)

I'm not saying that I'm certain that all hell is going to break loose....but I am saying that I don't understand how the "open schools now" crowd is so absolutely certain that this isn't a likely outcome.

I am certain that children whose parents die are 10 bazillion times more likely to suffer a learning gap than children whose parents don't die.

Note: [b]I have no formal medical education s[/b]o I'm in the same boat as the rest of us, trying to figure this out the best I can
[/quote]

Yes, this is rather obvious.[/quote]

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