$7/gallon gas is coming

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Finally! Some actual data.

What exactly do you think that chart is telling you?

That oil prices are up as a direct result of increasing shareholder profits and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“The seven supermajors — including BP, Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron — are poised to return $38bn to shareholders through buyback programmes this year, according to data from Bernstein Research. Investment bank RBC Capital Markets put the total figure higher, at $41bn.

That would be almost double the $21bn in buybacks completed in 2014 — when oil last traded above $100 a barrel — and the biggest total since 2008…..

…. Banks including Goldman Sachs expect Brent crude to trade at more than $100 this year, with some predicting that if Russia invades Ukraine it will trigger a sharper spike in energy costs.”

https://www.ft.com/content/2852b800-4a03-4cf6-a47f-65c306a22657

Thats...not what that chart says.

Reading some of the replies on the tweet it seems like it means that investors dont want their potential profits used to drill more/more frequently/deeper because that could decrease ST gains but new opportunities would in theory provide more LT results. So its more that investors want money now vs investment in growth?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Finally! Some actual data.

What exactly do you think that chart is telling you?

That oil prices are up as a direct result of increasing shareholder profits and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“The seven supermajors — including BP, Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron — are poised to return $38bn to shareholders through buyback programmes this year, according to data from Bernstein Research. Investment bank RBC Capital Markets put the total figure higher, at $41bn.

That would be almost double the $21bn in buybacks completed in 2014 — when oil last traded above $100 a barrel — and the biggest total since 2008…..

…. Banks including Goldman Sachs expect Brent crude to trade at more than $100 this year, with some predicting that if Russia invades Ukraine it will trigger a sharper spike in energy costs.”

https://www.ft.com/content/2852b800-4a03-4cf6-a47f-65c306a22657

Thats...not what that chart says.

Reading some of the replies on the tweet it seems like it means that investors dont want their potential profits used to drill more/more frequently/deeper because that could decrease ST gains but new opportunities would in theory provide more LT results. So its more that investors want money now vs investment in growth?

I’m the poster who was discussing oil and gas drilling a dozen pages back. What that chart means is that oil and gas investors learned their lesson.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-17/after-blowing-300-billion-u-s-shale-is-finally-making-money

There is a lot of debate within the industry about whether shale oil is actually sustainably profitable with most folks reaching the conclusion of “no”.

For decades, US oil companies operated under the mantra of increasing production at all costs. While that might have worked until 2008, it ended up being hugely wasteful from about 2008-2020. Investors over the past two years have sent the message to oil companies that they do not believe drilling for more oil is a profitable endeavor in the USA for now. That’s what that chart reflects.

On a side note, I’ve seen some thought-provoking undeveloped theories that a whole lot of the “missing inflation” of the 2010s was really capital destruction in the shale oil patch keeping oil prices artificially low. Will take decades to tease that out, but some good food for thought.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Finally! Some actual data.

What exactly do you think that chart is telling you?

That oil prices are up as a direct result of increasing shareholder profits and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“The seven supermajors — including BP, Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron — are poised to return $38bn to shareholders through buyback programmes this year, according to data from Bernstein Research. Investment bank RBC Capital Markets put the total figure higher, at $41bn.

That would be almost double the $21bn in buybacks completed in 2014 — when oil last traded above $100 a barrel — and the biggest total since 2008…..

…. Banks including Goldman Sachs expect Brent crude to trade at more than $100 this year, with some predicting that if Russia invades Ukraine it will trigger a sharper spike in energy costs.”

https://www.ft.com/content/2852b800-4a03-4cf6-a47f-65c306a22657

Thats...not what that chart says.

Reading some of the replies on the tweet it seems like it means that investors dont want their potential profits used to drill more/more frequently/deeper because that could decrease ST gains but new opportunities would in theory provide more LT results. So its more that investors want money now vs investment in growth?

I’m the poster who was discussing oil and gas drilling a dozen pages back. What that chart means is that oil and gas investors learned their lesson.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-17/after-blowing-300-billion-u-s-shale-is-finally-making-money

There is a lot of debate within the industry about whether shale oil is actually sustainably profitable with most folks reaching the conclusion of “no”.

For decades, US oil companies operated under the mantra of increasing production at all costs. While that might have worked until 2008, it ended up being hugely wasteful from about 2008-2020. Investors over the past two years have sent the message to oil companies that they do not believe drilling for more oil is a profitable endeavor in the USA for now. That’s what that chart reflects.

On a side note, I’ve seen some thought-provoking undeveloped theories that a whole lot of the “missing inflation” of the 2010s was really capital destruction in the shale oil patch keeping oil prices artificially low. Will take decades to tease that out, but some good food for thought.

I think that you are mistaken. The survey for that chart was not limited to domestic production. This is not just about shale and North America.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Mr. Wortman is not really correct.

The DRILLING permits may have been approved.
But that is just the start. They need permits for the infrastructure to get the oil stored and transported and those are not in place.
Add to that, the lawsuits that environmental groups have filed have stalled any drilling in the areas with "approved permits."

One of the major reasons many are not being used is litigation by environmentalist groups trying to stop drilling. Western Energy Alliance alone is currently in court defending more than 2,200 leases—a full 24% of those that are not being used (because they obviously can’t be used while lawsuits against them are still pending).

Many of those that aren’t actively tied up in court are tied up in regulatory red tape. The Biden Administration has made a point to more stringently apply the National Energy Policy Act’s requirement of environmental analysis before any new lease can result in new drilling. This process can take years even when a presidential administration hasn’t made war on the energy industry one of its key policy initiatives.

When, however, the stated goal of a President is to “end the oil industry,” it can use its regulatory power to do just that, and so dramatically slow the lease approval process that it becomes impossible for said leases to be used.

That is precisely what has happened over the past year. Leases by the thousands are being held up by environmental regulators, and those that aren’t are facing lawsuits from environmental groups who have the tacit approval of the Biden Administration.

In addition to this obvious slow-walking of lease approval, the Administration has also not yet given approval to 4,621 permits to drill. Once again, environmental concerns and a general hostility to new oil drilling are to blame. The Biden Administration could approve these permits quickly to allow for new exploration and potential production, but it has thus far refused to do so.

https://www.maciverinstitute.com/2022/03/yes-biden-is-to-blame-for-the-energy-crisis-heres-why/

Regarding the lawsuits:

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/biden-gets-climate-win-with-court-loss-gulf-mexcio-oil-leases-2022-01-28/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Can we say HYPOCRITE?!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

What are you prattling on about?

[Anonymous]

Rationing coming to Europe. How long before it hits our shore?

[Anonymous]

Gee, if only we had ramped up on fossil fuel alternatives years ago…. thanks for standing in the way Republicans!

[Anonymous]

Spr release is super short sighted.

The point of spr release is for super dire emergencies - like getting nuked or attacked

Not because Melissa and brad are mad in ohio that their suburban is expensive

Perfect time to go long oil even more

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Gee, if only we had ramped up on fossil fuel alternatives years ago…. thanks for standing in the way Republicans!

So an entire electric grid and EV charging infra would have been good to go and resilient to these gas shocks if we had started a few year ago?

Nice, why didn't we think of that sooner!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rationing coming to Europe. How long before it hits our shore?

Carter years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gee, if only we had ramped up on fossil fuel alternatives years ago…. thanks for standing in the way Republicans!

So an entire electric grid and EV charging infra would have been good to go and resilient to these gas shocks if we had started a few year ago?

Nice, why didn't we think of that sooner!

Yes, actually. The technology has been available for plenty long enough. We could have been building a functional commuter train network. We could have done a lot if not for the fossil fuel industry and their minions in congress. Electric cars were first developed decades ago. Even ICE engines could be way more efficient than 20 mpg if not for car companies marketing horsepower and red blooded American aggression over fuel efficiency and environmental protection. You guys stood in the way and now want to complain about fuel prices. So transparent.