Someone help me with Math
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Anonymous
| DS got 33 on ACT, which according to charts is in the top 1.5%, let’s even say 2%. Then add in SAT takers and say there is some overlap of top scorers so top 3%. There are 3 million college students nationwide in each class. So top 90,000. Or about 90,00 higher ranked by test score. DS has 3.9 uw 4.5 w and I would think average record of APs and ECs. Might be on high end but let’s just say this would not move needle. If Ivy League fills 20,000 of the 90,000 (estimate Brown might be 1,000 but Penn is 4,000). Then you have those tippy top publics like UNC, Michigan, UCLA, etc filling another 50k. Then add in the likes of Vanderbilt, Rice, Duke and it is well over the 90,000. And this does not even factor in that MANY kids don’t has the support/inclination to go out of state. I just don’t understand how my kid is reach for Middlebury, Emory, Wake Forest, USC, etc. Where do all the students come from? I get there are Athletes and legacies without the stats but it just doesn’t add up to me. I also get the test score is not the be all end all - but are there really kids with more APs than 10 and 4.0 with lower test score that is skewing this number. I am missing something in the math as to how it is possible for my DS to be shut out of top 30 (has not happened yet) but courteous for insight. |
Anonymous
Penn’s freshman class is about 2,400 kids not 4,000 |
Anonymous
| Students are submitting as many as 15 applications. A poster on another thread said her DD is submitting 20. |
Anonymous
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For one thing, scores are less emphasized than ever before. Massive uncertainty in admissions with test optional.
But even before test optional, scores and grades were not enough. You need to account for hooked applicants, even moreso under test optional scenarios - this is the colleges' big chance to increase their URMs. Some schools may place more weight on scores than others, e.g. Vandy, where 33 is probably 25th percentile. I wouldn't bother trying to figure out nationally where a 33 falls; it's roughly the same as mid-to-upper 1400s on SAT. Great, of course, but its value will vary by school - check each schools' admission data. 33/3.9 is a great student, but does not, by itself, distinguish such a student for top schools. If he's a senior, hopefully he had a broad range on his list. Frankly, this test optional year is a nightmare for predicting admission. If you need financial aid, perhaps moreso - while many top schools are need-blind, a few are need-aware, including WF. On the other hand, full pay may come in handy in RD and on waitlists. Sorry OP, I feel your pain. |
Anonymous
| Most colleges want a well-rounded, diverse cohort. He needs to bring something to the table other than good test scores. It also depends on his intended major. |
Anonymous
Wait, if she's in the 98.5 percentile she's in the same percentile as the SATer's in 98.5, right? I'm assuming the spread is basically the same for both tests (no idea, I took SAT). So it would still be 1.5% of the nationwide total. |
Anonymous
| So Cornell, not Penn maybe Ivy League is few thousand high. But still the numbers are overwhelming. How is stats in “top 3%” not translating to admission to top 50 schools? |
Anonymous
| 33 on its own is not close to "Cornell worthy" unless you are in state and applying to the Ag part of the university. |
Anonymous
Because admission is not based only on stats. And less on test scores than it was in the past. Test optional is practically a free-for-all in terms of admission predictability. Odds are that he'll get admitted somewhere in the top 50, but if he's shut out, he won't be alone, I'm certain of that. Also anticipate the possibility of waitlists. |
Anonymous
| Regarding U Penn’s 2400 kids, don’t forget half are boys and half are girls. Then, there are the internationals. |
Anonymous
And the athletes and legacies. |
Anonymous
| OP, students with perfect scores will be applying to the schools you mentioned, and some will prefer them. |
Anonymous
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All of the state schools on your top 30 list have in-state admissions requirements, so it works in your favor if you are in state. The stats are higher with OOS.
You also can't have colleges and kids perfectly match up; I think a lot of kids over apply to the top-15. No one deserves anything. |
Anonymous
And URMs, legacies, low-income and first-generation |
Anonymous
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You are making the stats way more important than they actually are. Anyone with a 31 can do the work at Wake Forest, so they go looking for kids with interesting ECs.
"I would think average record of APs and ECs." Mostly it depends on what you mean by this? Are you saying DC was at the 50th percentile in these categories or no better or worse than the average student with a 33 ACT? Even if you mean average for a 33 ACT, that means there are a huge number of students with 32 and 31 ACTs who are at the 90th%ile of APs and ECs that beat out your DC. |