Someone help me with Math

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Regarding U Penn’s 2400 kids, don’t forget half are boys and half are girls. Then, there are the internationals.

And the athletes and legacies.

International is WAAAYYYY down. Pandemic, US response and xenophobia and racism as shown by previous administration has made many international students go to Canada, New Zealand, Germany (for some strange reason).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Regarding U Penn’s 2400 kids, don’t forget half are boys and half are girls. Then, there are the internationals.

And the athletes and legacies.

International is WAAAYYYY down. Pandemic, US response and xenophobia and racism as shown by previous administration has made many international students go to Canada, New Zealand, Germany (for some strange reason).

Germany has top world-class universities

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:International is WAAAYYYY down. Pandemic, US response and xenophobia and racism as shown by previous administration has made many international students go to Canada, New Zealand, Germany (for some strange reason).

International apps are up (at the usual US top universities)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2021/02/01/international-student-applications-to-us-colleges-are-rebounding-is-it-a-biden-bounce/

Compared to 2019-20, the volume of international applicants has increased by about 9% this year according to data from the Common App, as of January 22

[Anonymous]

I would not say that your kid is not competitive for a top 30 school - just that there is no sure ins.

Perhaps the ACT score of 33 being in the top 1.5% is not accurate. For example, many students now super score ACT/SAT scores to combine best section results across several tests.

I think a better way to think about is that there are 24000 high schools in the US. If you look at just the top 10 students from each school in this graduating class, you are looking at 240000 students that have an interesting combination of grades, activities, recommendations, test scores, academics, etc., and there would be an even higher number of certain schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DS got 33 on ACT, which according to charts is in the top 1.5%, let’s even say 2%. Then add in SAT takers and say there is some overlap of top scorers so top 3%. There are 3 million college students nationwide in each class. So top 90,000. Or about 90,00 higher ranked by test score. DS has 3.9 uw 4.5 w and I would think average record of APs and ECs. Might be on high end but let’s just say this would not move needle. If Ivy League fills 20,000 of the 90,000 (estimate Brown might be 1,000 but Penn is 4,000). Then you have those tippy top publics like UNC, Michigan, UCLA, etc filling another 50k. Then add in the likes of Vanderbilt, Rice, Duke and it is well over the 90,000. And this does not even factor in that MANY kids don’t has the support/inclination to go out of state. I just don’t understand how my kid is reach for Middlebury, Emory, Wake Forest, USC, etc. Where do all the students come from? I get there are Athletes and legacies without the stats but it just doesn’t add up to me. I also get the test score is not the be all end all - but are there really kids with more APs than 10 and 4.0 with lower test score that is skewing this number. I am missing something in the math as to how it is possible for my DS to be shut out of top 30 (has not happened yet) but courteous for insight.

A lot has been said but honestly your child's stats are not all that competitive for top schools. They are definitely amazing but expectations need to be lowered...

[Anonymous]

There are roughly 38,000 freshmen spots at the USNWR T20 institutions. About 3 million freshman enrolled in American universities the fall of 2020. So a spot on the T20 freshman class was only available to 1.3% of the pool of 3 million. If spots were awarded solely on standardized test scores, the cutoff would be above 33 on the ACT.

Of course no admissions are conducted this way. But it does underline why such highly competitive schools are a reach for every applicant.

[Anonymous]

OP, it's not a simple as a math equation. Schools take so many factors into account that, especially at the "top" schools, it's hard to quantify exactly what they are looking for in an applicant. These schools see so many curated applications that it becomes necessary to look for fine hairs to split.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DS got 33 on ACT, which according to charts is in the top 1.5%, let’s even say 2%. Then add in SAT takers and say there is some overlap of top scorers so top 3%. There are 3 million college students nationwide in each class. So top 90,000. Or about 90,00 higher ranked by test score. DS has 3.9 uw 4.5 w and I would think average record of APs and ECs. Might be on high end but let’s just say this would not move needle. If Ivy League fills 20,000 of the 90,000 (estimate Brown might be 1,000 but Penn is 4,000). Then you have those tippy top publics like UNC, Michigan, UCLA, etc filling another 50k. Then add in the likes of Vanderbilt, Rice, Duke and it is well over the 90,000. And this does not even factor in that MANY kids don’t has the support/inclination to go out of state. I just don’t understand how my kid is reach for Middlebury, Emory, Wake Forest, USC, etc. Where do all the students come from? I get there are Athletes and legacies without the stats but it just doesn’t add up to me. I also get the test score is not the be all end all - but are there really kids with more APs than 10 and 4.0 with lower test score that is skewing this number. I am missing something in the math as to how it is possible for my DS to be shut out of top 30 (has not happened yet) but courteous for insight.

A lot has been said but honestly your child's stats are not all that competitive for top schools. They are definitely amazing but expectations need to be lowered...

That answer does nothing to explain the numbers. “Not all that competitive” means what, it is not far from as high as it can be statistically. The question is how many slots compared to how many I that statistical category plus how many outside of stat filling available slots. In big round numbers.

[Anonymous]

Despite what some posters are saying, scores still matter if you are white, Asian, or rich. That may not be woke, but it’s true. Test optional is for admitting URM, first-gen, and low income. To have a good shot at admission, your score should be above the school’s 50th percentile, ideally around the 75th percentile. Also, many colleges require applicants to apply to a specific school, and scores can vary depending on school. A quarter to one-third of admits at selective schools go to diversity applicants and athletes. You will be competing with the upper half of applicants. Applying to publics, you must take into account quotas to admit state residents. There are also international students, whose applications are ramping again with the change in Administration. International students are full-pay, so schools like them. After accessing all these variables, be reasonable. People like to dream, but being reasonable yields better results.

[Anonymous]

Also, in addition to international students and athletes, and legacies. don't forget art and other selective but sought after applicants that sometimes don't have the scores, plus deferrals from prior years and other special programs - like 5 year masters, 7. year pre-med, etc etc etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Despite what some posters are saying, scores still matter if you are white, Asian, or rich. That may not be woke, but it’s true. Test optional is for admitting URM, first-gen, and low income. To have a good shot at admission, your score should be above the school’s 50th percentile, ideally around the 75th percentile. Also, many colleges require applicants to apply to a specific school, and scores can vary depending on school. A quarter to one-third of admits at selective schools go to diversity applicants and athletes. You will be competing with the upper half of applicants. Applying to publics, you must take into account quotas to admit state residents. There are also international students, whose applications are ramping again with the change in Administration. International students are full-pay, so schools like them. After accessing all these variables, be reasonable. People like to dream, but being reasonable yields better results.

Rich is full pay and absolutely a hook.

[Anonymous]

Also to generalize, all those 33 ACTs are located in DC, NYC, Boston, Chicago and California. Schools want geographic diversity and people who weren't as coached up by UMC parents, and are going to admit a 28 from an average school in Iowa over your 33 from Bethesda every time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Despite what some posters are saying, scores still matter if you are white, Asian, or rich. That may not be woke, but it’s true. Test optional is for admitting URM, first-gen, and low income. To have a good shot at admission, your score should be above the school’s 50th percentile, ideally around the 75th percentile. Also, many colleges require applicants to apply to a specific school, and scores can vary depending on school. A quarter to one-third of admits at selective schools go to diversity applicants and athletes. You will be competing with the upper half of applicants. Applying to publics, you must take into account quotas to admit state residents. There are also international students, whose applications are ramping again with the change in Administration. International students are full-pay, so schools like them. After accessing all these variables, be reasonable. People like to dream, but being reasonable yields better results.

Rich is full pay and absolutely a hook.

Not at a needs-blind school, which is most, if not all, of the most selective schools. For solid, but less selective privates, yes. Some more selective publics too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Despite what some posters are saying, scores still matter if you are white, Asian, or rich. That may not be woke, but it’s true. Test optional is for admitting URM, first-gen, and low income. To have a good shot at admission, your score should be above the school’s 50th percentile, ideally around the 75th percentile. Also, many colleges require applicants to apply to a specific school, and scores can vary depending on school. A quarter to one-third of admits at selective schools go to diversity applicants and athletes. You will be competing with the upper half of applicants. Applying to publics, you must take into account quotas to admit state residents. There are also international students, whose applications are ramping again with the change in Administration. International students are full-pay, so schools like them. After accessing all these variables, be reasonable. People like to dream, but being reasonable yields better results.

Rich is full pay and absolutely a hook.

Not at a needs-blind school, which is most, if not all, of the most selective schools. For solid, but less selective privates, yes. Some more selective publics too.

Only about 100 schools have need-blind admissions, so income is an admissions factor at most schools (including William and Mary, U. of MD, Va Tech, the University of California system, Michigan, etc.). Also, I believe that needs-blind admission is a factor at many schools for the relatively large number of international students and kids from wealthy private schools, who will almost certainly be full pay.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What you're missing is that university admissions are not based on a meritocacy in this country.

Diversity is everything here. Which means that someone who checks a box on a form that you child doesn't check will overtake someone like your child who has way better scores.

This and this will only continue.

More and more kids will get deferred and waitlisted as kids apply to more than 10 schools. 5 used to be the average/max when I was in school. Parents did not have the $$ to spend more on them.
Things have changed dramatically in terms of numbers of schools kids apply to.