NYT Risk Tracker
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Anonymous
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So, according to the New York Times “Risk tracker,” FFX county is in the blood red zone of “extremely high risk.” That surprised me because I have been seeing an uptick in the fervor to RTS. I know the little ones are supposed to be less likely to spread covid, but the MS and HS students can spread it like adults, and they won’t be in cohorts. Here is what the NYT told me:
Cases are very high and have stayed about the same over the past two weeks. The number of hospitalized Covid patients has also remained at about the same level in the Fairfax County area. Deaths have increased. The test positivity rate in Fairfax County is very high, suggesting that cases are being significantly undercounted. We’ve recommended additional precautions below. |
Anonymous
| Hmm that doesn’t make sense according to Fairfax and Va dept of healths own numbers. Maybe other parts of the state aren’t doing well. The only data that really matters are local numbers. |
Anonymous
| Maybe that one day of really high backlogged cases messed up their system, because they are incorrect. Cases and percent positive have been tracking steadily downward. |
Anonymous
| Their data is not accurate. I check Fairfax and VA DOH data for Fairfax every morning. |
Anonymous
Me too. They are wrong. |
Anonymous
I find the VA and Fairfax dashboards extremely confusing. |
Anonymous
What did they get wrong? I am not challenging you. I truly find this all a bit confusing. |
Anonymous
Well, it said specifically “Fairfax County,” not Virginia state. |
Anonymous
Okay, but could you please tell me what is not accurate? NYT is generally a solid source. |
Anonymous
| well, if you go to the virginia state covid website, go to "testing" and sort for Fairfax, you can see the 7 day percent positivity rate has been steadily going downward. Then you can go to "locality", select Fairfax and you can se the case rate has also been going downward. |
Anonymous
Well, NYT shows that there is a slight downward trend but that we are still in the “extremely high risk” zone, so I don’t think the statistics are at odds with each other. Downward trending is great but it may need to go down just a wee bit more before we leave the “blood red” zone. Y’all are way too quick to jump on things as “completely inaccurate.” Don’t do that. It makes you less credible. |
Anonymous
| Yeah. It’s coming down. But still red hot. That’s the truth. |
Anonymous
Yes, all of Virginia is still in the highest risk category, however cases and % positive tests are steadily decreasing. |
Anonymous
| Could you link to the tracker please? |
Anonymous
DP We will exit the red soon. All VA respond have reproduction rates now under 1.0. The state’s 7 day moving average positive rate is down to 12.2%. The Fairfax Health District is down to 10.2% from 15.3% at the beginning of January. Fairfax Health District’s new case/100k is now in the 700s, down from 1,448 on January 8. The entire state is dropping, but I think it is most beneficial to look at the FFX District and Northern Region. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/ https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/01/29/uva-covid-19-modeling-weekly-update-3/ |