NYT Risk Tracker
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Anonymous
+1. Just because my blood-alcohol content is trending down doesn't mean I am sober yet. |
Anonymous
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Daily Deaths in the Northern Region (which included Fairfax+) have gone from a 7 day average of over 6 at the beginning of January to less than 1 now.
https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coro...9-in-virginia-cases/ Hospitalizations are also down. I see nothing on the VDH that indicates anything different. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coro...9-in-virginia-cases/ |
Anonymous
This is the part I think people are easily debating: “Cases have stayed about the same over the past two weeks. The number of hospitalized Covid patients has also remained at about the same level in the Fairfax County area. Deaths have increased.” |
Anonymous
The VA School metrics dashboard says Fairfax is in a downward trend in all categories for 15-28 days. Over two weeks. PP has gone (rolling 7 day) from advice 15% to just above 10% in six weeks. We will be 9.x% next week. Consistently declining cases is when you do put kids in. Holiday surge is over. Now is when we should go. You wanted metrics. They came up with metrics. The metrics look good in Fairfax County. |
Anonymous
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Fairfax County Core Metrics are red. But steadily decreasing. PP should go into Orange this week. Cases per 100,000 is 250 less than it was a few weeks ago. Secondary metrics are yellow and green. 14% decrease in cases this week.
It’s a good time to plan for RTS. On this trend line core metrics will be there when kids go back. Of course we should abuse if there is a huge spike in cases. But stopping because cases could spike is why we didn’t take advantage in the fall. Of you are arguing for metrics, then you need to follow the metrics you have. And pause if look bad. Once kids are in, they are fine unless there is an outbreak at their school. Then they pause. You wanted a plan. They have a plan. So ????? |
Anonymous
I bookmarked this site because it has the data school relies upon and I found it confusing navigating through so much data (you do have to select Fairfax County from the dropdown and it does take time to load): https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/key-...rics/school-metrics/ Numbers on their own look bad but in the context of how they are trending there is a clear trend that they are improving so it makes sense to be getting plans in order to return to school. You don't wait until everything is all green to start planning, unless you want a repeat of fall. |
Anonymous
Well said |
Anonymous
Fcps has this listed on this page https://www.fcps.edu/return-school/fcps-confi...id-19-case-reporting and you don’t have to do the drop down. It also lists the numbers in schools so far. Most of the recent student cases are athletics I’m guessing. |
Anonymous
Thank you! That is great. I just bookmarked it, too. |
Anonymous
Exactly. I don't care what the trend is. I want to see LOW NUMBERS of CASES, HOSPITALIZATIONS and DEATHS. And right now, we are so, so, so not there. |
Anonymous
I agree that new cases aren’t quite “low” yet, but hospitalizations and deaths are quite low now. The 7 day moving average for hospitalizations is ~13, which is where the Northern Region was at the end of August. The 7 day moving average just dipped below 1 which is pretty much the lowest it has been since late March. This is for the entire Northern Region which covers a much larger area than just Fairfax. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coro...in-virginia-testing/ |
Anonymous
| And access to testing is continuing to increase, which is fantastic! Would love to see syptomatic/asymptomatic percentages too. I think it would help with reassurance, even if test positivity remains ~10%. |