Anyone else worried for Chinese New Year?
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Anonymous
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China's had several days of worrisome (for them) case loads.
This time it seems the problem is right outside Beijing. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-china-surge-lockdown-hebei-lunar-new-year-holiday/ The PRC government indicated last year they don't play around. The travel season for Chinese New Year/Tet is happening between 10 January and 18 February, and this is five times as big as the migration for Thanksgiving. Even if it's halved or thirded, it's still bigger than the US Thanksgiving,. What are the chances of a Wuhan-style lockdown II somewhere in China, and accompanying echoes around the world? (This is really health, finance, and everything all rolled into one. I suspect Western governments locked down as hard as they did after seeing China's lockdown, and if China locks down, that means several weeks of supply chain issues for many of the things we love. Given that China went DEFCON 1 upon reaching 2,500 cases a day in mid/late January, we've got to assume that China will go DEFCON 1 or 2 if this 100-150 cases a day stuff goes up to the four digits for a couple days in a row, especially all in one province.) I'll be honest - I look at the number of cases China admits is happening before I look at the numbers for Maryland. |
Anonymous
| No. |
Anonymous
| Chinese New Year last year is what started this. So many traveled there from the US. What damage is there left to do? |
Anonymous
| The US has spread this more than anyone so not worried about Chinese New Year in China at all. This is now a worldwide pandemic. |
Anonymous
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it didn't start with Chinese New Year last year. At that point, lockdowns in China were already occurring. I teach English to students in China (virtually) and distinctly remember how sad they all were to be missing this holiday. NOBODY traveled for it.
so no, I'm not worried. They did a good job of lockdown last year, and even if they don't do a good job this year, who are we (the US) to point fingers at not having a significant lockdown? |
Anonymous
| I guess you’re right there is no public health effect here, but lockdown II might have economic effects. |
Anonymous
| We are real busy here in this country worrying about Americans, so no I give zero f/$ks about Chinese New Year. |
Anonymous
| It's very possible China will do another lockdown. They lockdown neighborhoods and city districts for a small number of cases. |
Anonymous
Why would China's case numbers have more of an impact on your life in Maryland than Maryland's? And at any rate, with uncontrolled spread pretty much everywhere in the U.S., I don't do much differently than I would if there was a real lockdown -- we go very briefly to the corner store, we order curbside pickup for groceries or takeout, and we don't go into any stores. Not sure a big outbreak in China right now would change my life in D.C. one bit. |
Anonymous
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I trust China to crack down on its own citizens more than I trust the US (even under Biden) to crack down on us. So, no concerns. And by this I mean, the Chinese have long had human rights issues. But no viral spread issues. |
Anonymous
I don't think that it started because of Chinese New Year. There was a lockdown. I also didn't hear about many traveling there from the US. And people can still get sick and die. What do you mean by "what damage is there left to do"? |
Anonymous
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No. The Chinese people in the US are smarter and mostly cancelled Chinese New Year last year, at least in the DC area.
In China? Who knows. |
Anonymous
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So no one is concerned about economic effects in the USA of Chinese Lockdown II? (Granted, maybe this thread can be moved over to Money and Finance or Politics, since it's not going to have a public health impact here.)
If Thanksgiving is such a huge vector for the US, surely something that is 8x the size of American Thanksgiving can't be ignored (granted, that's a them problem until it affects us economically). Even if it's reduced to 25% of what it was in 2018, that's still twice the size of US Thanksgiving travel. I think folks have adequately demonstrated there won't be any real public health effects in the USA, but I don't know what's shipped from what province of China and what that means of Wal-Mart shoppers (or electronics buyers, or whatever.) Or if Mr. Market will look down a la Wile E Coyote. THOSE will have an impact on the USA. |
BlueFredneck
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Well, we may get to find out what happens when zero COVID is breached in China.
China just moved past 1,000 cases for the first time in two years. Multiple cities and provinces affected. https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/china/china-covid-jilin-university-mic-intl-hnk/index.html |
Anonymous
From the article: The country reported 1,100 new locally-transmitted cases on Thursday -- which, though nowhere near the level seen in other nations, is considered high by China's standards. It marked the highest daily total since the virus emerged in Wuhan in 2020, prompting alarm among local and national leaders. |