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Reply to "Anyone else worried for Chinese New Year?"
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[quote=Anonymous]China's had several days of worrisome (for them) case loads. This time it seems the problem is right outside Beijing. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-china-surge-lockdown-hebei-lunar-new-year-holiday/ The PRC government indicated last year they don't play around. The travel season for Chinese New Year/Tet is happening between 10 January and 18 February, and this is five times as big as the migration for Thanksgiving. Even if it's halved or thirded, it's still bigger than the US Thanksgiving,. What are the chances of a Wuhan-style lockdown II somewhere in China, and accompanying echoes around the world? (This is really health, finance, and everything all rolled into one. I suspect Western governments locked down as hard as they did after seeing China's lockdown, and if China locks down, that means several weeks of supply chain issues for many of the things we love. Given that China went DEFCON 1 upon reaching 2,500 cases a day in mid/late January, we've got to assume that China will go DEFCON 1 or 2 if this 100-150 cases a day stuff goes up to the four digits for a couple days in a row, especially all in one province.) I'll be honest - I look at the number of cases China admits is happening before I look at the numbers for Maryland. [/quote]
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