But you CANNOT support the rule of law while also supporting Trump, who is himself a criminal many times over. |
Thanks. Best laugh I've had since I heard about Trump's invasion of Venezuela. Napoleon sent his relatives to rule over countries he invaded. I hope trump will follow Napoleon and send Eric as the emperor of Venezuela. |
I’m not sure what you’re implying. Do you think that Trump and his cronies taking over Venezuelan oil is going to magically turn the Trump administration into Ukraine’s savior? If Russia wants the oil to attack Ukraine, it’s still going to get. It’s just that Trump and friends are now going to get $$ for it. |
I’d be on board for this. There would certainly be cheering in the streets too! Who is listening to us??? |
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Hey, op! As terrible as Maduro is (and I’ve literally heard no one say he’s not) it has emboldened Trump and he’s back on his bs about Greenland (and colombia!) again-lands differently now though, doesn’t it?
no one is criticizing Trump out of loyalty dems, they are doing it because he’s a maniac. |
Thanks for sharing; that was an interesting read. Do you think most people in Venezuela are happy about this? It’s nice to think they are. (FWIW, this struck me as wacky and lawless, and I’m opposed to it based on what I know, but, as long as it’s happened, it’s nice to think maybe it’ll be for the best.) |
| If Venezuelans wanted regime change, they should have fought for it. It isn’t America’s job to solve the problem. Musk closed USAID, sorry. |
| Also we only took Maduro; the rest of Maduro’s group is still there and running things. |
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Regime change courtesy of the US does not bode well for the target country. Anyone who has put their faith in the US to bring democracy to their country is not a student of history. Look at what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya. The US not only fails, but leaves the country in a weaker, more corrupt, more unstable condition that it was prior to involvement.
OP, Maduro was a horrific leader, but I sincerely believe that things will be much worse now that the US is taking over. There will be a power vacuum, and the people the US puts in place to fill it will be corrupt and incompetent. |
It's about price, Cheap oil hurts Russia, and therefore helps Ukraine. Oil is already very cheap, and bringing more Venezuelan oil onto the open market lowers the price even further, which hurts Russia even more. And that helps Ukraine. The Russian economy doesn't survive with cheap oil. They are already in a lot of trouble, and a flood of oil on the market will bury them economically. Russia cannot sustain war with low oil prices. |
OP - what is your near term prediction - will (some?) Venezuela’s citizens return to Venezuela? Or will many more millions leave the country? |
Venezuela used to be the shining star of Latin America. In the 50's Venezuela had one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world, comparable to West Germany and Ireland. In the 70's following the oil embargo of 1973 Venezuela had the highest per capita GDP in Latin America and the lowest inequality in the region. Family in Panama said it was common to see so many Venezuelans flush with cash come to Panama because of banking secrecy laws combined with the fact Panama uses the US dollar as currency, so it was a stable place to put their "petrodollars". They also were known as "dame dos" [give me two} because they would go shopping and were so well off they would buy two of everything. Things started going south in around 2000. There was a strike of oil worker and around 20,000 oil workers who knew how to run and maintain oil production were all fired. In 2007 Chávez demanded that all foreign oil projects be converted into joint ventures where the state (PDVSA) held at least 60% control. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips refused to sign the new terms. They walked away, leaving behind billions in assets AND cutting-edge technology. Venezuelan oil is extra-heavy" crude which is really thick and more challenging to process. So now with the oil workers fired and the engineers who knew how to use the technology to process this heavy crude leaving the country, the production of oil decreased. Exxon and Conoco sued Venezuela in international courts for billions of dollars which tied up money Venezuela could earn. Year Production Context (Million Barrels/Day) 1998 3.1 - 3.4 Peak production before the Chávez era. 2007 2.6 - 2.8 Nationalization Year: Exxon & Conoco exit; technical purges begin. 2012. 2.4 - 2.5 High oil prices hide the fact that production is slowly slipping. 2013 PRESIDENT MADURO TAKES OFFICE 2014. 2.3 - 2.4 The Crisis Starts: Global oil prices crash; PDVSA cannot afford repairs. 2017 1.9 U.S. sanctions begin; infrastructure starts failing rapidly. 2020 0.4 - 0.5 The Bottom: Production hits a 70-year low due to total neglect. 2024 0.8 - 0.9 Slight recovery due to Chevron's limited return and foreign help. The Economy started tanking under Chavez who died in 2013. But when President Maduro took office there mass anti-government protests (known as La Salida) erupted due to high crime and inflation, leading to dozens of deaths and thousands of arrests, which prompting many to flee for safety. 2014 was really the tipping point because Venezuela has the "Dutch problem" of being hyper dependent on one resource which is oil. Venezuela’s economy was hyper-dependent on oil, which accounted for roughly 95% of its export earnings. In 2014, global oil prices plummeted from over $100 per barrel to less than $50. Then came economic mismanagement, a brutally oppressive and corrupt regime and hyperinflation. In 2017 the US implemented sanctions. Year Total People Outside Venezuela Key Driving Event 2014 ~700,000 Oil prices crash; first major anti-government protests against Maduro. 2015. ~1.2 Million Shortages of food and medicine become critical. 2016 ~1.6 Million Hyperinflation begins to take hold. 2017. ~2.3 Million Violent protests and "Constituent Assembly" crisis. 2018 ~3.4 Million Hyperinflation peaks; the "Humanitarian Corridor" opens. 2019 ~4.8 Million Presidential legitimacy crisis (Guaidó vs. Maduro). 2020. ~5.4 Million COVID-19 borders close, but migration some continues 2021 ~6.0 Million Mass displacement into Colombia and Peru stabilizes. 2022. ~7.1 Million Surge in migration toward the U.S. via the Darién Gap. 2023 ~7.7 Million Record crossings of the Darién Gap (over 320,000 Venezuelans). 2024. ~7.9 Million Post-election instability (July 2024) triggers new waves. 2025 ~8.2 Million Continued economic stagnation and political repression. |
| Don’t be stupid OP. |
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No. This is not how it's done, OP. If you are ok with what Trump has done, you are OK with Putin invading Ukraine. You are OK with China doing whatever it wants with Taiwan. You are OK with the American president illegally invading another country without the approval of Congress. And you are fine with our allies' horror.
I have close friends in Venezuela who have been suffering. And I am not saying it's ok for Biden or others to make deals for oil. But this??? No |
Fingers crossed. Bury them. |